The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Occam]

Your count looks good to me. Also, the range on EURGBP was higher than normal (95 pips so far).. to me this signals a Level 1, however, we won't know if it is fake level one or not until level 2 is put in. Meaning, this could just be a Level 1 up before 3 more levels down.. Or it could be start of new 3 day cycle up (the range is a good sign that it actually could be a legit level 1 up, imo)..

The important part to me is we have a probable Level 1 up put in today, which means tomorrow we can make a low risk trade plan to go long if we see some pins or RRTs in a support area

So, If it will be a legit level 1.. I would look for buy RRTs or Pins around the 0.7000 level (as of now), or depending on what Tokyo does tonight, a stop hunt below Tokyo Lows could also be a sign to go up.

However, if it will be a fake Level 1.. I would look for sell RRTs or Pins just above the 0.7060 Level (see H4 for a good reason to pick this level)..

these are just areas I would look for clues, though anything can happen and I can't predict what will happen next with 100% certainty.

Hi Tomsic

I have a slightly different count on EG, see attached chart, but I'm not sure about it. A peak low was made with trapping volume, we got a move up and then the trapping volume stayed trapped with a retest by a W on M15 with a HL. Is there a reason why you wouldn't call this first move up level 1 (the level also got confirmed with retest after the break)? Is it just because of the small range for that day (41 pips) and it's still in the consolidation area at the lows, and that the last move is the move out of that area, and therefore level 1? I can understand that reasoning as well. I had the same issue at the previous highs (see chart). Cheers

[Tomsic]

Hi Tomsic

I have a slightly different count on EG, see attached chart, but I'm not sure about it. A peak low was made with trapping volume, we got a move up and then the trapping volume stayed trapped with a retest by a W on M15 with a HL. Is there a reason why you wouldn't call this first move up level 1 (the level also got confirmed with retest after the break)? Is it just because of the small range for that day (41 pips) and it's still in the consolidation area at the lows, and that the last move is the move out of that area, and therefore level 1? I can understand that reasoning as well. I had the same issue at the previous highs (see chart). Cheers

Hi Occam,

The only reason I wouldn't count that as level 1 is because it only moved around 35 pips.
I think that if the fox is behind a push, it should be closer to the ADR, which is about 71 pips now on EG.
So I think the level you marked is probably still a part of the accumulation move.

Yesterday's move up on EG was about 95 pips, which is why I would start my count there.

But at the end of the day.. levels are only a piece of the puzzle and there is no hard rule.. sometimes we get 3 levels, sometimes 2.. sometimes 4, sometimes they are 2 bigger moves instead of 3 average moves etc ..

So don't get too caught up in the counts.. Most the time we should have the same counts anyway, but if your charts makes sense to you and give you low risk ideas to trade, then that is all that is important.

[Occam]

Hi Occam,

The only reason I wouldn't count that as level 1 is because it only moved around 35 pips.
I think that if the fox is behind a push, it should be closer to the ADR, which is about 71 pips now on EG.
So I think the level you marked is probably still a part of the accumulation move.

Yesterday's move up on EG was about 95 pips, which is why I would start my count there.

But at the end of the day.. levels are only a piece of the puzzle and there is no hard rule.. sometimes we get 3 levels, sometimes 2.. sometimes 4, sometimes they are 2 bigger moves instead of 3 average moves etc ..

So don't get too caught up in the counts.. Most the time we should have the same counts anyway, but if your charts makes sense to you and give you low risk ideas to trade, then that is all that is important.

Agreed thanks Tomsic

[Tomsic]

I was just playing around on the UJ chart and think it looks interesting right now..

RRT at the peak high on the daily followed by 1 move down, lots of choppy nonsense, and then a 2nd move down..

Looks like a little stop hunt happened at that support level and then a sharp move up to Dudest's 73.6% fib level..

So based on that, we might be able to assume more downside to come:

USDJPYDaily.png

The H4 chart just shows the 3 pushes up since the little stop hunt suggesting an end to that up move.. call it a retracement or whatever you want, but it looks like the 73.6% daily fib held it there.

USDJPYH4.png

So, for me the bias is definitely to the down side.. but I still need a level and confirmation at that level to get in..

the H1 chart shows an ABC pattern kicked off Level 1..

Now the 123.94 level has shown some support/resistance recently.. I think it would make sense for the fox to run a little stop hunt here.. If we get there and pin or RRT, I see a 90 pip target to the downside to put in Level 2 at a H4 support area:

USDJPYH1.png

Depending how much further Tokyo wants to take UJ down though, another area to look for pins or sell candles is yesterday's Low (123.75).

Anyway, we'll see what happens

[anhvudn]

Hi Tomsic,

Could you please tell me which indicator you are using to display all of your currency pairs on one window?

Thank you.

Vu.

[BenSD]

thanks again to cj for opening my eyes

[Piter80]

Paterns repeat

USDCHFDaily.png

GOLDWeekly.png

GOLDH4.png

[Piter80]

GBPUSDH4.png

[as28]

[quote="Piter80 » Yesterday, 9:02 pm"][/quote]
I don't see what you see, tell us how you use this patterns repeating?

Tomsic thanks for your charts, I like your way of thinking :hi:

[Zaleske]

I concur with the others Tomsic, spam your heart away, your posts show a great deal of work on your part, yet are clear and to the point. Quality stuff mate