10.4 A Complete System

[Gertje]

Here's an interesting one - AUDCAD.

This is where I would excercise caution (yet again - must be old ) but the red line path is possible so if I were looking at this pair I would give myself a bit of room with the pending above the pivot.

What do people think?

Cheers,
Dave.

In my humble opinion, this is 95% perfect for a long, 4 out 5 signals are valid;
- above 240MA
- below WP, crossing into the trend again
- RSI at bottom
- AO below 0
You're 'just' missing the AO colour change.

I trade this system to the limits, so already entered this morning at 10h00 [5 hours ago].

[cmeade2]

One thing that supports a long is the fact that on the H4 you made a lower low on a green bar. Usually that's a good sign for a reversal.

Dave

Which way are you thinking. I have already made a bunch of money on the way down, but that was against the rules. And I got out because it seemed kind of tired. Again, if you want to go long, I think you need to wait for some movement in the RSI(2).

cmeade2

Here's an interesting one - AUDCAD.

This is where I would excercise caution (yet again - must be old ) but the red line path is possible so if I were looking at this pair I would give myself a bit of room with the pending above the pivot.

What do people think?

Cheers,
Dave.

[spotdespot]

I thought it might provoke some discussion. Bottom line is I don't know. I am actually still short but with small positions left (as you said cmeade2 - not a 10.4 trade) but it looks pretty tasty for a 10.4 long. I kind of posted it as I actually expect what I put in red to happen but I have no idea whether that will be a little bounce back or whether it will continue down. Anyone not in long might be better to place the pending a little above the pivot imho.

I hope I'm wrong Gertje!

Cheers,
Dave.

[Gertje]

I thought it might provoke some discussion. Bottom line is I don't know. I am actually still short but with small positions left (as you said cmeade2 - not a 10.4 trade) but it looks pretty tasty for a 10.4 long. I kind of posted it as I actually expect what I put in red to happen but I have no idea whether that will be a little bounce back or whether it will continue down. Anyone not in long might be better to place the pending a little above the pivot imho.

I hope I'm wrong Gertje!

Cheers,
Dave.

Time will tell...

Yesterday at noon I set the 1st pending at the WR1, so my lotsize is calculated with that in mind. If this one goes down the drain there's not much harm done.

I'm trading at Instaforex with $10k lots instead of the traditional $100k lots so basically it's playmoney to get a grip on the system.

Like Bob write's; "if you can't turn $200 into $400 there's no way you can turn $2.000 into $4.000
After I made my $200 into $2.000 then I'll look for a serious broker to work this out. Might improve the profits, 12 pips spread on the AUD pairs is a bit stiff...

[cmeade2]

Not to beat a dead horse, but in my experience if you wait for some movement in the RSI(2), after it has been pinned at an extreme level, it usually signals a long trend to come. AudCad long could be the case. But I think there is too much risk to get involved now.

I thought it might provoke some discussion. Bottom line is I don't know. I am actually still short but with small positions left (as you said cmeade2 - not a 10.4 trade) but it looks pretty tasty for a 10.4 long. I kind of posted it as I actually expect what I put in red to happen but I have no idea whether that will be a little bounce back or whether it will continue down. Anyone not in long might be better to place the pending a little above the pivot imho.

I hope I'm wrong Gertje!

Cheers,
Dave.

[spotdespot]

Not to beat a dead horse, but in my experience if you wait for some movement in the RSI(2), after it has been pinned at an extreme level, it usually signals a long trend to come. AudCad long could be the case. But I think there is too much risk to get involved now.

I would agree if you were talking about a trade @ market but that's what pending trades allow for don't they?

Something above 1.0500 would mean the RSI would have turned up. That's how I read the "place trades when RSI is flat" part of the rules - essentially don't place them very close to the price, place them so that if they get triggered the RSI has probably turned up and the AO is probably in the right direction.

Maybe too many probably's and maybe's.....but hopefully it makes some sense.

[cmeade2]

A useful tool that would facilitate these sorts of trades would be the capability to plot various price scenarios (e.g., for AudCad) and then it would calculate how the various indicators on the chart would adjust.

The closest thing to that are the emerging pivot indicators that Baluda has developed.

Not to beat a dead horse, but in my experience if you wait for some movement in the RSI(2), after it has been pinned at an extreme level, it usually signals a long trend to come. AudCad long could be the case. But I think there is too much risk to get involved now.

I would agree if you were talking about a trade @ market but that's what pending trades allow for don't they?

Something above 1.0500 would mean the RSI would have turned up. That's how I read the "place trades when RSI is flat" part of the rules - essentially don't place them very close to the price, place them so that if they get triggered the RSI has probably turned up and the AO is probably in the right direction.

Maybe too many probably's and maybe's.....but hopefully it makes some sense.

[wolfeman]

In my mind this trade is over, that's all. Price is testing last weeks high at the moment. It could exaust itself on Thursday, I'll look for a better price then.

My pick at 8265 was wrong. It's nice to be wrong and not have it cost me anything.

To prevent a "touch" of the WR from opening the trade. It touched twice and then ran up. I deleted my pending, BTW.

Why delete your pending?
Setup is still valid -> RSI at the top waiting for a withdrawal.

[cmeade2]

My guess is that at the close of the current H4 bar (in about 3 hours) you will have a good buy on the AudCad.

Just a guess

[cmeade2]

Looks like the Jpy is finally giving it up.

Not sure of the implications for 10.4 since all of the yen pairs are below their 240 MA.