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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  cmeade2 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 8:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
OK here is a good example from this week. It's a H4 chart of the NzdUsd. Best of all, it's a total by the book 10.4 trade.

At the beginning of the week, the pair was moving up to the 240 and RSI(2) moved very high. By the second half of Monday it was flat at about 99.

You can see that after the three white bars, there is a red bar that breaks down below the 240. The AO is still green, but I think it's clear that based on the discussion yesterday, that many people would see that as an appropriate signal to go short.

From my perspective, there is still a note of caution because the RSI(2) is still at 99.

And so, I would get in on the next bar. If I was watching the chart, I could imagine I would have gotten in during the bar (which I did) as I saw the RSI(2) moving down. But even if I waited to the end of the bar and gotten in, I would have still netted 100 pips.

In my case it was 140.

Does that make sense?

cmeade2


cjthomson wrote:
cmeade2 wrote: Which way are you thinking. I have already made a bunch of money on the way down, but that was against the rules. And I got out because it seemed kind of tired. Again, if you want to go long, I think you need to wait for some movement in the RSI(2).
cmeade - when you say 'wait for some movement in the RSI', what exactly are you talking about and how are you using it? Are the trades you're making very short term.
Author:  jmdias [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
in 3 hours we will have NZD business condidence.IMO GBPNZD can go at WR2 and EURNZD at WR1..after that big fall...what u think about it?
best regards and green pips for all
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Nice example, cmeade. I think a lot of us got in at WMS1 on that trade, preferring a little gap from the 240 for a stop. You describe perfectly the RSI "twitch" I keep mentioning. In real time, it pops down, pops back, pops down... when it is getting ready to move. It was 112 pips from there, with a late "stock exit" on the change of AO.

Hope you keep posting.

Mike
Author:  cmeade2 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Mike

The main point about the "twitch" is that it is important when the RSI(2) moves away from a pinned high/low level. There are plenty of examples where the RSI(2) can flop around to different values up and down without much insight for trading. But the key point of 10.4 which I think Bob focused on, is that it is important when it gets stuck high or low. On the one hand, that can mean that you are going to have a trend for a while (that's EurNzd and GbpNzd yesterday). But when it breaks, it means it is time to start going in the opposite direction.

cmeade2
mjws00 wrote:Nice example, cmeade. I think a lot of us got in at WMS1 on that trade, preferring a little gap from the 240 for a stop. You describe perfectly the RSI "twitch" I keep mentioning. In real time, it pops down, pops back, pops down... when it is getting ready to move. It was 112 pips from there, with a late "stock exit" on the change of AO.

Hope you keep posting.

Mike
Author:  cmeade2 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Mike

I wouldn't surprised if on the next H4 bar for the GbpNzd (in 35 minutes) the RSI(2) starts to move down.

In my view, this might be the Holy Grail that a bunch of people here have been waiting for.

cmeade2
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I don't believe in grails. But 4-24hr heads up on a nice big swing... with an idea of how to capture a big part of it without sitting in front of a screen is very very cool.

The respect the weekly pivot points get when one has the right offset (GMT ish) was truly mind-blowing for me, and so simple. I've been trading these levels for a very long time with the supply demand model. This gets 90% of them as a complete no-brainer. That is grail-like.

I chuckled a bit when I saw Bob's last post, about managing expectations. It is easy to over-trade and over-leverage a new toy. Literally gave myself a time-out after Mondays run.

Thanks for your contributions.
Author:  cmeade2 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Actually on my chart it's already starting to move down as the price fluctuates. Pretty clear on the next print there will be a big move down for the RSI(2)
mjws00 wrote:I don't believe in grails. But 4-24hr heads up on a nice big swing... with an idea of how to capture a big part of it without sitting in front of a screen is very very cool.

The respect the weekly pivot points get one one has the right offset (GMT ish) was truly mind-blowing for me, and so simple. I've been trading these levels for a very long time with the supply demand model. This gets 90% of them as a complete no-brainer. That is grail-like.

I chuckled a bit when I saw Bob's last post, about managing expectations. It is easy to over-trade and over-leverage a new toy. Literally gave myself a time-out after Mondays run.

Thanks for your contributions.
Author:  cmeade2 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 9:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Hi Allison

Which way?

It has a positive daily trend, and it is above the 240 but it has been pretty flat all week.
allisonmagic wrote:USDCHF
Author:  cmeade2 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 10:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Allison

I can't give you the links, but there have been some interesting posts here, with lots of data, saying that if you get to R1 you should go long (vice versa for S1).
allisonmagic wrote:
cmeade2 wrote:Hi Allison

Which way?

It has a positive daily trend, and it is above the 240 but it has been pretty flat all week.
allisonmagic wrote:USDCHF

my bad.. modified my post
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 10:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
GBPNZD is a rare pair for me. Holy crap does the spread jump everywhere during news. Blech. I may trade something more liquid that is correlated.

Edit: Just watching this thing on the 10s chart. What a spikey nasty little ho. They are ruthlessly tagging anyone with remotely tight stops. Small positions, wide stops for me on these. You guys used to looking at the "Universal 14", or a subset... be careful.
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