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Baluda Indicators
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Author:  Baluda [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
dietcoke wrote:The point i was making was that if all the required data is not available then it's only a partial TMA. Which is why the indicator repaints.
True, every next bar adds information to the 20 past TMA and Slope values. This defines 'repainting'. (One of the ugliest words in forex.)
dietcoke wrote:What we are doing when we look at TMA for the last 20 bars is an estimate of how the centred TMA might eventually evolve.
Again, true. As you mentioned we are looking at a centered TMA, because of that the last 20 bars are not fully evolved, but gaining info on each new bar. In that way you could call this an estimation.

Paul
Author:  Baluda [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 2:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
NeoTrader wrote:In conclusion the original tma (non true) only beautifies the slope. From my perspective this is completely irrelevant since we actually rely only on the current value of the tma.
NeoTrader wrote: The true version doesn't repaint the past bars so we have at least the possibility to do some visual backtest...
This is where we disagree. We are definitely not looking to 'beautify' data. TMA Slope is a tool that prepares us for possible changes in trends. Forex traders do not care for infoporn.

Another issue is your wish to backtest, visual or otherwise. It is my strong belief that the importance of (visual) backtesting is highly overrated. Remember the past can never be used to expect/predict the future. The market is far more chaotic than those simple bars on your screen.

Paul
Author:  Jemook [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 3:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
Baluda wrote:This is where we disagree. We are definitely not looking to 'beautify' data. TMA Slope is a tool that prepares us for possible changes in trends.
Loving the discussion going on between the two of you. Even though the values may be the same on the current bar Bob always talks about the angle of the slope telling us a story. The TMA 'True' doesn't give this. I actually never really understood what Bob meant by this properly. Anyone else wanna weigh in?
Author:  garyfritz [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 3:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
Baluda wrote:This is where we disagree. We are definitely not looking to 'beautify' data.
I'd say that's precisely what the original future-looking TMA does. It makes the TMA plot "pretty" so it looks prescient when looking at historic charts. I consider it analogous to a zig-zag indicator that marks the exact top and bottom of each swing, but only in hindsight. You cannot buy and sell at the zig-zag's swing maxima/minima. An inexperienced person who looks at the zig-zag might think he's found the Grail but we know that's not true. The zig-zag may be useful for certain historical analysis -- how often does this market swing, what's the average swing size, etc -- but it's useless for actual realtime trading signals.

The TMA actually *IS* useful for realtime trading, but by definition that means it's only using the "past data" part of the triangle -- in realtime the "future data" doesn't exist yet. I honestly don't understand why anybody would want to destroy that useful actual-trading information and plot a "beautified" full future-looking triangular MA. I can't see any benefit to prettifying the actual realtime signal into an unattainable perfect TMA curve. (Can you? I'm honestly puzzled why anybody would do this.) But I can see VERY strong benefits to seeing the ACTUAL TMA (or whatever you call it) values, as you would have seen them in realtime. That allows you to scan back and see how the indicator performed in realtime, giving you an idea how your indicator / system / etc would have performed. NNBob mentions this benefit for daily/weekly/monthly pivots, and a non-prettified "TMA" would gain the same benefit.
Another issue is your wish to backtest, visual or otherwise. It is my strong belief that the importance of (visual) backtesting is highly overrated. Remember the past can never be used to expect/predict the future.
Here I must vehemently disagree. If the past gives us no prediction ability for the future, then the entire activity of trading is impossible. The only way you can trade (other than techniques like pure arbitrage which do not attempt to predict future price movement) is to say "I've seen this work in the past, and I hope it will continue to work in the future." Whether that is trendlines, pivots, sunspots, chicken entrails, whatever -- you observe a pattern and you expect it to repeat in the future. Otherwise you're just making random guesses. Backtesting is simply a formalized process for observing and measuring past behavior.

Even live "forward testing" is simply backtesting in realtime. If you forward test it and it works well, you say "OK, it seems to be working, I'll try it with real money now." If the past had no predictive power, the forward test you did in the past would have no predictive power for live real-money trading.

I have over 10 years of experience building and trading backtested systems. At one point I was trading over US$10MM of client money, using backtested systems I developed, and until the 9/11 attacks changed the whole market psychology, I was one of the top-rated CTAs in the business. Backtesting WORKS, if done properly. You can never predict the future with 100% accuracy, but if you work at it and use appropriate techniques, you can predict the future with enough accuracy to make a consistent profit.
Author:  NeoTrader [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
hi Paul,
Baluda wrote:This is where we disagree. We are definitely not looking to 'beautify' data. TMA Slope is a tool that prepares us for possible changes in trends. Forex traders do not care for infoporn.
I see it the same way and use it the same way as you describe it...only in true mode where the essence of information is the same in real time. I only don't have the smoothened slope for the past bars that shows a illusion. The Information is the same, don't see any parallels to infoporn...thou i like the word.. ;)
Baluda wrote:Another issue is your wish to backtest, visual or otherwise. It is my strong belief that the importance of (visual) backtesting is highly overrated. Remember the past can never be used to expect/predict the future. The market is far more chaotic than those simple bars on your screen.
I know that the past can never be used to expect/predict the future. That is also not my intention when I backtest... I want to learn, see how the indicator behaves in different market conditions. And what informations the indicator shows me in this conditions. something that is not possible with any heavily repainting indicator as the normal tma slope is.


happy trading,

NeoTrader

Edit: P.S.: Gary put it in much more eloquent words than i could...that is exactly like i feel...;)


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Author:  MurphyMan [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
I hate to ask dumb questions, but that has never stopped me in the past. :lol:

When I have the SlopeStrength indicator up the fields overlap, so I am unable to distinguish the trend arrows or dots. Any suggestions how to correct this? BTW, I am using full screen on a 22" monitor.

Thanks.
Author:  dietcoke [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
MurphyMan wrote:I hate to ask dumb questions, but that has never stopped me in the past. :lol:

When I have the SlopeStrength indicator up the fields overlap, so I am unable to distinguish the trend arrows or dots. Any suggestions how to correct this? BTW, I am using full screen on a 22" monitor.

Thanks.
might be the font size doesn't suit your screen resolution?

look for nonPropFont in the indicator code and replace the nearby "12"'s with something smaller
Author:  MurphyMan [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 9:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
dietcoke wrote:
MurphyMan wrote:I hate to ask dumb questions, but that has never stopped me in the past. :lol:

When I have the SlopeStrength indicator up the fields overlap, so I am unable to distinguish the trend arrows or dots. Any suggestions how to correct this? BTW, I am using full screen on a 22" monitor.

Thanks.
might be the font size doesn't suit your screen resolution?

look for nonPropFont in the indicator code and replace the nearby "12"'s with something smaller
No joy, but don't worry about it.

Thanks.
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Jun 25, 2012 11:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
I had been away from the site for several weeks and have been through hundreds of post to catch up. Diff can not be underestimated. I was sitting today with a calculator working this out by hand off of Baluda's Slope Strength indicator when I happened on to his other indicators. Baluda and Neo great work. I love what you did Neo with the base, cross and diff lines. The Confluence of these lines is remarkable. A picture is worth a 1000 words and Diff gives us a visual representation of how flows into and out of the majors effect each other. This is one superb addition to the tools we have been given with 10.2. This is sort of where I thought slope could take us once I saw your slope strength indicator Baluda. Bravo ... :D
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Baluda Indicators
Neo your indicator is a fabulous tool for scalping 15 min - 60 min time frames. :D I am getting spot on trades that actually seem more accurate on the lower time frames. The Diff line gives you good crosses and than good feedback for staying in the trade. You get in early and milk it for all it is worth. Really Cool. Again thanks for your efforts.
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