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| Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=716 |
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| Author: | Pipley [ Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Awesome! I was wondering if there is a way to pull the best of Stretchy and Oct. NB in to one EA. I'm glad someone with a better understanding of all of this is one the same track! Thanks for the additional chart. |
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| Author: | feucht [ Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Ok, this could be interesting As mentioned I have been looking at incorporating some of NB10.2 Oct's ideas into this to see if we could filter trades. It's quite easy to calculate what the pivot values for the day, week and month, both in retrospect and at the time within the EA. Paraphrasing heavily, for a buy trade NB would be looking for the weekly pivot to be above the monthly pivot (and you would enter as the price crossed the daily pivot in an upwards direction), and the position of the daily pivot would give you an idea as to whether the trend was strong (above the weekly pivot) or ranging (between the monthly and weekly pivots). The first chart below show the results for the same set of parameters I was using in my previous post or 2 (the EA defaults), with the addition that the trade would only be taken if the weekly pivot was the "right" side of the monthly pivot (above for a buy, below for a sell). As you can see, not great and unprofitable at lower SL levels. I also tried with the day pivot on the "right" side of the weekly as well, which was even worse (not shown). So back to the drawing board. But the point of Stretchy is that it alerts us to a tension that suggests that something is about to happen, that the position is "wrong" and is going to be pulled back to be "right". What if the stretch is telling us the pivots are the wrong way round but are going to flip? So look at the second run, this time I am only accepting the trade if the weekly pivot is below the monthly pivot for a buy. Results look OK, interestingly though you would have made more with lower SLs. Even more interestingly, look at the third image, where I am showing the same run but only the losing trades. The TPs down the side start at 100, that means that I didn't have a losing trade with a TP of 90 or less i.e. every trade saw 90 pips profit or more before heading off towards the SL!! This seems firmly in the "too good to be true" camp, so I will be doing more testing with different ranges of starting D1 slopes etc, but this looks like pretty amazing stuff so far. I will also look at a new version of the EA so I/we can start testing this forwards as well. |
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| Author: | Pipley [ Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Wow! I will order my yacht today! Ha! I'm not sure that I understand this: According to the second run, a (theoretical) trader using the criteria that you described (Stretchy waiting for a "wrong" M-W pivot flip) with a 90TP and 130SL would have banked 1624 pips. And the third box tells us that TPs below 100 had no losses. So, does this mean that this trader would have had 1624 in positive trades and no losses? Or, are the second that third set-ups different? Thanks again for all of the hard work! |
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| Author: | feucht [ Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Yes, image 2 and 3 are the same figures, attached are the winners only, at 90 TP 130 SL, all the total is made of winners. I must be doing something wrong! |
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| Author: | Pipley [ Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
I sure hope that you are right, but the switch from very hot (no losses) to the other extreme (everything from 100 and up with a consistent loss) looks very suspect! It would be failry easy to test, though! If we can find one loser below the threshold, I will know to cancel my yacht order. (ha) I won't be able to get back to my screen to check that out until tonight, but I will definitely do some research then. Okay, I just realized why all of the losses above 100 would be so abrupt and consistent! Duh! I am feeling much better about this now!! |
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| Author: | feucht [ Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Remember when you look at the "consistent" losses above 100 you are looking at losers only. There are plenty of winners above 100 as well, picture 2 of the 3 together shows the overall performance, which was fine. |
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| Author: | Pipley [ Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Ya, I am real embarassed that I didn't realize that BEFORE I sent the post!! I am real excited about the possibilites with this. I am wondering, (if it turns out that your information is correct) if the same theory could be stepped down to H4 / M15 stretch. I am just thinking that if a D1 / H1 (24 to 1) ratio works that well, then maybe a 16 to one ration might work also. It's obviously not going to be as good as the original Stretch, but it might be worth checking into for a few pips during ranging days. (?) Just thinking out loud..... |
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| Author: | feucht [ Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Yeah, I have wondered something similar, though I only have historical slope data logged at D1/H1. If the relative monthly/weekly pivot thing does have legs, then there will be weeks where there are no trades at all (about 1 in 3 from what I have worked out), so might want something else to play with in those circumstances (with smaller time frame pivots??). My greatest joy so far was seeing that week 38 had no trades at all in the figures above, it was an absolute stinker! |
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| Author: | Pipley [ Fri Oct 05, 2012 1:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
I am leaving for a three day weekend early in the morning, but I am hoping to stop in here whenever I can to see if anything has developed. I am assuming that there is no way to acquire the slope data without actually recording it while it is happening, but if there is something that I can do (I can contribute time and effort, but not coding experience) to help collect information to help you with your analysis, please let me know! Thanks! |
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| Author: | feucht [ Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Stretchy Slope. Blame Bunker for this one. |
Ok week over and the tally is... 11 winners for 770 pips and 2 losers for 260, net 510 pips, 5 trades still open currently about 210 down, so a 300 pip week. I made a change to my development version to implement the pivot stuff. It took 1 trade straight away last night, a sell on AUDUSD which would need a need a new 2 or 3 month low to hit TP, but it did just before the close. |
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