The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Captain Jack]

If you look at all those charts, notice where price has moved in relation to the moves it made last week.... When the fox is selling it up, the public is long and he is short....price has to drop price for him to book profits...When the fox is selling it down to the public, he is long and needs to bring price up to book profits....MANY PROFITS WERE JUST BOOKED....

CJ

I wondering why the euro fell out of bed and the pound hasn't moved much.. I'm interested to hear your perspective CJ.

Hi pueo

If I may offer an angle on this... In short, the drop was made in EU and not GU to handle the cross. If you take a look at the three pairs on the daily, you can see that over the last say 2 and a half months GU has gone down hard whilst EU didn't. It went up some and then came back, meanwhile EURGBP moved up a fair bit and then went into the type of holding pattern that I think CJ has been trying to show us. The players use the majors in this way to move the crosses. It looks to me like EURGBP has found a top and GU has bottomed out and my guess is that GU will be pushed up now over the next couple of months in order to drop eurgbp again. Does that make any sense? I hope it answers your question, in part at least

I agree...when a pair isn't moving, check it's crosses.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Put your money in the bank and sleep well!

Unless you're a Cypriot...

Good enough for the Cypriot bankers, good enough for the market makers who work with them...they reached into the pockets of a lot of traders Monday and "taxed" the hell out of us....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Giving EURJPY a SHORT look here off the "M" 2nd leg....should have probably held off for a higher pin.....

CJ

Trade stopped out....poor selection on my part as well as poor time to take a trade...

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Going to give this one a go...not a good night for patterns.... maybe NY will be better....

CJ

Still holding this one....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Arf, can't access the forum when I'm at the office (load balancing et changing IP every 5 sec). Anyway.

Here is my EJ long since this morning.
All working good, currently at +66 +120 & +14.
H4 wil close on 4 min and Doji style, means indecision ... don't like that. I will probably close half.

Nice one Lio. You got in at a good place when they dropped it low the 2nd time...

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Right so here's how I royally messed up today.

I made a whopping 350 pips spread over 40 trades around 85-90% success rate this morning (london open to ny open). I basically doubled my account balance on my live micro account.

I then placed a few short trades on the yen pairs that we giving a potential M patterns at around ny open. Made some pips as they went down some and then I become overly confident and I started adding positions of increasing micro lots sizes. Guess what, Mr fox decides he wants more contracts and sends them up. At this point I thought it was a small retrace and I could ride it out, I then run out of free margin and had to close 2/3 of my trades ( I had alot open lol).

So I lost my profits on the day and half my initial account. However, I'm not that disappointed as micro accounts are the place to live and learn and if I can repeat the success I had this morning then im golden. And if they are some better setups like on friday then even better.

Things I need to be aware of (this might help you too):

1. Do not add multiple positions I cant support with my allocated free margin. As I'm using mental stops, I need to trade smaller or have more margin.

2. Do not forget about the NY open range. Mr Fox can and will try tricks at this time as well as the open of the london session.

3. Do not become overly confident, overly ambitious, and overly greedy.

4. Dont forget about the cycles on the larger TF i.e. 4h/daily. Cycles can verify the pattern and direction.

5. Have more of a bias to trade patterns in the direction of the gap and be very wary about trading in the opposite direction.

6. Get a good nights rest!

Lot's of good information there....best to load those trades after you get a major reversal, level 3 high or low. They tend to run a bit more before they retrace since the test and stop hunt is already over.

A pip in hand is worth 50 @ SL!

Thanks for sharing that with us though.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Would love to get your insights on that AU long trade. I got a M & a W

ok, im dying to know if we can consider 2 Leg of M as 1st for W and vice-verca..

Monkeh, the 3 leg moves usually start with an "M" at the top and end with a "W" at the bottom.... You will see them transitions from one to another, BUT the ones we need to look for are on level 3, up or down....these provide the better moves.

A lot of trades taken on Monday here were not very good patterns. I took a couple based on a few pins that were piss poor.

The best trades were off the pins low, on the gap drops. A lot of the pairs have recovered most if not all the loss during the gap. Several gaps have been filled already as well....

When they run price like this, and use "news" as an excuse, price tends to return to the prevailing trend as it was before the "news" event.

I've attached one of Kruspe's charts as it illustrates the "M" and "W"...Kruspe is dead on. We need to look for a "W" to form, below the Asian range in this case, to trigger short stops and pick up orders before it goes higher. If we were looking for a level 3 rise, we would look for a well defined "M" at the top, which trips the BUY stops.... these patterns will have some long pins as this is how they spread the price out, triggers stops, but not triggering TP levels...

Nice work on the charts Kruspe, it shows good level recognition...just look for the level 3 formations and trade them...you will make money.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Would love to get your insights on that AU long trade. I got a M & a W

Lio, take a look at the higher time frames....looks good for a scalp...AUDUSD has been on a steady rise, but H4 is showing some clues.... there's a lot of pins up top there....plus there is previous structure to the left... I'd look for some consolidation here, and look for a bigger "M" to possibly form.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

i didnt exit on the spike down touching the TL(leadin), as it seems the first push down and i dont find a "W" that it would jump up already on lower TF.

edit... what do i see: foxy going to GAP to trick people and take those shorts Stoplosses out.
/\/ forming of the M

You need to look for price to go higher, Gerry, and form the "M"....then look for the drop.....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Monkeh, here's one of those "M"'s that transition into a "W"....higher time frame....

CJ