nanningbob » Sun Jun 01, 2014 5:43 pm wrote:Bank Holidays last week seemed to put a muzzle on the market but that's life.
This week looking at fundamental news. BOJ announcing its increasing its sales in June should push the JPY lower across the board but its not saying when only that there will be 8-10 sales during the month. The interesting thing about this is the BOJ seems to be the only buyer at this point. So if you understand sell bonds and then buying them to put more currency into play then you got it. At least the USA is buying bad mortgage loans every month withe hopes that some day they could become valuable property. How strong is the real question.
JPY sells were good all week. Did will on them. will continue to sell JPY sell except for eur/jpy. I would think there would be a retrace coming but ................ BOJ is doing bond sales unannouced so we dont know when they will sell them. I think they are trying to keep buyers out of the market by blind siding them at anytime. SO I will just JPY sell and reenter if it retraces with 2 levels.
USD and CAD still on top and probably will stay there. GBP in the middle with the aud. The aud did not go down with the nzd soooooooooo will it or ???????????
Except for selling the usd/jpy I stayed away from it. Now it is starting to angle down but is still the strongest currency. That may not change. Cad is falling though.
I read the eur and chf as one line now and they are on the bottom. News stories of how the euro will decide to join the depreciation party. If they do it will continue to stay on the bottom, if they dont expect it to rise dramatically as the euro bulls will come out in force. Anyway Thursday is the news day for the euro so I would expect it to be flat this week while it waits for Thurs. news
I sold the eur and got out at the right time on the Thurs. spike. It went way beyond the TMA bottom so I got nervous and closed. Then BAM!!! someone bought euro across the board. There are some real disagreements over policy in Europe but I will stay with selling it. Watch out when it gets back down to 1.35 again. Someone (probably Germany) maybe defending that line. WE will see. Still I am strong euro weakness.
The FT is out with an article citing senior ECB officials on what the central bank will do at Thursday’s meeting. Senior ECB officials have hinted that they will also present measures to tackle the plight of the eurozone’s struggling SMEs to counter what ECB president Mario Draghi this week dubbed a “pernicious negative spiral” of low inflation and tight borrowing constraints.Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president, is planning to support the ECB’s proposal to ease constraints on smaller businesses in more troubled parts of the currency bloc,
So I will be looking for usd, cad, buys against all others. If JPY starts to sink I will go with JPY sells and AUD and NZD buys. GBP plodding in the middle so put the TMA on the chart and sell high and buy low.
