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Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=651		 Page 10 of 17
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Jul 17, 2012 3:12 am ]
Post subject:  EURUSD15 minute
eurusd 15.gif
15 minute chart EURUSD

I almost forgot about my EURUSD trade because I have been playing with Steve's Slopey Beast Bot. I could have got out with the consolidation before the new break out. However I have stayed in and added another lot to the position. This is something I would not do in a counter-trend trade but here I am not fading but trading in the direction of the prevailing trend. Price made it out all the way to the 2.62 deviation channel. I have only about 15 pips to move to break even and being so far out on the SDC means that I can stay in the trade some time as the Pair moves back down in the direction of the prevailing trend. Daily slope is still -.75.

I will be adding Baluda's TMA slope MTF to the 4 hour chart to use with the combined setup. :D
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:42 am ]
Post subject:  EURUSD 30
eurusd 30.gif
So I got out with about a 6 pip profit and as trades go it was a yawn but I will continue to trade EURUSD to night with information like the following. One thing to note is that I was trading with the trend. Because I did not catch the top of the rally does not mean I will not this AM. I have been spending most of my time on Slopey Beast rather than trading so far this week but I did want to get some trades looked at for the thread.

Really nice divergence can be observed on the chart. If a trade is not working for you divergence can give you some patience.


"EUR/USD: Offers 1.2300/10 (talk ACB supply),
buy stops through 1.2315 ahead of more offers 1.2330/50 (real money, supranational).

Sell stops through 1.2275 ahead of bids 1.2250/60.Sell stops through 1.2240 ahead of bids at 1.2200/10 (barrier 1.2200)"
eurusd 4 hs.gif
So I am looking at another entry in the 2330 to 2350 area. This would make a nice sell and would probably end a slight correction in the EURUSD. I would like to enter with a monitored trade but I might take a pending if I find sleep calling later this AM. The white line on the Chart shows where there is some horizontal resistance in the market at around 2336. The Fibonacci expansion comes in around the 2343 level. So it is easy to see why offers are in this area of some size. Presently price is at 2303. If the market does not get spooked south before 2330, some where above that level will be a good entry.

Edit- I am looking to use good old fashion NB slope on the combined template but I am using the TrueTMA as lines in Baluda's MTF indicator and not the repainting indicator. I think it reflects the slope better than a Histo when using the 20 period and 100 ATR that Bob uses in his system. On the Four Hour chart it seems you get the best look at the two time periods together. Here D1 is decreasing from -.74 and I like the contrast between the 2 slope lines. While editing this I notice price just got up to 2307 and fell off again some probably hitting some of those initial offer around 2300/2310 so I will have to see if EURUSD has enough steam to make it up past 2316.
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
So 10 hours into GMT EURUSD top to Bottom is 51 pips. Not to encouraging. Hope NY session brings better conditions. This is July though and the summer doldrums. The Olympics will be getting ready to start in the next two weeks in London and the US is suffering though one of the hottest and worse weather years on record with terrible fires and a terrible drought affecting half the country. Hard to tell what all this will lead to for the rest of the summer.

"Markets dead, on hold awaiting Bernanke’s semi-annual Congressional testimony." Who Knew :lol:
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Jul 17, 2012 2:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
Only took 1 minutes for Bernanke to send the market in a tail spin :lol:

Anyway I am sitting on my hands testing Slopey Beast ....
Author:  slowkey [ Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
I put the new indicator package in post 1 :D
Author:  mobthehop [ Wed Jul 18, 2012 2:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
Thanks for sharing slowkey!
Author:  slowkey [ Wed Jul 18, 2012 3:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
mobthehop wrote:Thanks for sharing slowkey!
Your welcome, Good Trading to You ....

Mobthehop
Author:  slowkey [ Wed Jul 18, 2012 11:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
The EURUSD 1 hour SDC is slightly uptrend today but with the narrow ranges of several of these days and a negative D1 slope of around -.8 , I would be cautious. The SDC is reflecting some of the narrow range days we have been having up until yesterday.
Author:  zah1231 [ Wed Jul 18, 2012 5:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
slowkey wrote:The EURUSD 1 hour SDC is slightly uptrend today but with the narrow ranges of several of these days and a negative D1 slope of around -.8 , I would be cautious. The SDC is reflecting some of the narrow range days we have been having up until yesterday.
I have been experimenting with SDC for the last 3 days and my feeling is that the lookback of 6 days is too sensitive and can suddenly change the slope direction giving false signals and resulting in losses. IMHO, a lookback of 10-12 days would be more stable, but that's just me. Thanks.
Author:  slowkey [ Wed Jul 18, 2012 10:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff
zah1231 wrote:
slowkey wrote:The EURUSD 1 hour SDC is slightly uptrend today but with the narrow ranges of several of these days and a negative D1 slope of around -.8 , I would be cautious. The SDC is reflecting some of the narrow range days we have been having up until yesterday.
I have been experimenting with SDC for the last 3 days and my feeling is that the lookback of 6 days is too sensitive and can suddenly change the slope direction giving false signals and resulting in losses. IMHO, a lookback of 10-12 days would be more stable, but that's just me. Thanks.
Hi Zah and thanks for following the thread and your interest in the SDC. I think it is a terrific tool.
The SDC I think has it right and let me say I said just to be cautious because we are coming off of a fairly strong down trend. But let me explain what I mean here when I say this by showing you what a longer look back would do.

You have to remember that the SDC is more than just a tool that gives you trend it also is a Fibonacci Tool so when you are attaching it to a chart the look back is important to how the Deviation channels work. There is math involved in the look back. If it is too large the Fibonacci channels will not be right. It is like drawing a Fibonacci from the wrong point to the wrong point on a chart.

Let me show you what I mean with what the EURUSD is doing the last 10 Days. You would have to set the look back to 8 days to still see it in a down trend. So I want to show you the difference between the two and also look at the Daily Chart. First the 8 day look Back.
eurusd 8 days.gif
Notice that when you look at where the check marks are on the bottom of each hour candle that is the lowest of the day you can literally draw a trend line that shows the Pair is up trending on the hour chart. You have to remember when you are trading intraday on an hour chart that you are trading 1/24 of one Daily candle. You are literally trading within the candle. However each one of these candles I have check marked would have been the low of the Daily candle for that day. However because of the 8 day look back the SDC does not reflect that change in trend. Also the deviation channels are just all wrong. they do not look right at all. They do not give you any guidance and the trend is all off. Now lets look at the 6 day look back below.
eurusd 6 days.gif
Now if you were to draw a trend line it would reflect the same trend as the SDC. Also the Deviation channels look right. Now at the very left of the chart looking back 5 days or so you can see that EURUSD had been in a down trend and if I could scroll the chart backwards that would be even more obvious.
Another thing to notice is the range of these days. Look how you would have been having to trade the Pair the last few days. You would have been getting short squeezed at the bottom of your short every day with the day ending in an uptrend as each day progressively ranged higher. Now yesterday was a little bit of an aberration because of the US Fed chairman speaking to congress and the effect this news had on the day. I tried to trade the early london and NY session before and the range all night was about 51 pips till 1 minute into his testimony the bottom went out of price. Than within the hour price was again trending upward quite strongly. I have not been trading today but if I had been I would have had to analyze what has been happening on the Daily.

Now the Daily below.
eurusd.gif
If you look at the last 10 candles you can see the unusual trading conditions reflected in the day candles. You can also see the start of a possible reversal or bottom in the daily candles. All the candles show fairly narrow trading ranges but with the last 5 of six candles you can see clearly that the candles have needle bottoms. You can also see that the last candle today is forming a doji which you can also see at pair bottoms or periods of indecision. Of course the day is not over and we will have to wait to see what this brings. You do not always have a bottom with a big spiked hammer candle for instance. Some times bottoms are formed by many needle like candles. Regardless, when you see this something is usually happening. Each candle shows a move down but the bulls push up the price each day. So if you were short these days you would have been at least in a intraday short squeeze. It would have not been terrible but you would have had a hard time selling the rallies which is what I was trying to do when the SDC was still showing a down trend. I just was not getting any cooperation. I was getting out ok but I was not making any big gains. The market also reflected this by where all the players had there bids and offers reported at. The ranges each day were narrow and none of these locations were really getting hit. However today as the SDC changes I would not be trying to sell any rally. Clearly things are changing some. This may only be temporary but it may be with the worsening conditions in the US that the EUR is going to catch a break or at least a break in the action. Now this analysis helped me too because if I trade this evening I will be using a different strategy because of the SDC. I sort of get from your statement that you may be relying on the SDC a lot. It is a great tool and my setup would be lost without it but the setup is a tool to analyze a chart and develop a plan. Try not to rely totally on the SDC in your thinking. Look at the trend lines. Look at the daily chart. Look at where the Bids and the Offers are in the market. Look at the whole picture to come up with a nice plan. The SDC is invaluable in the setup. However it is not perfect and your trading can not rely 100 percent on what it is telling you. The setup has many parts for that reason. If you use all the parts you can have success. I was an ICU nurse. When I first started I was totally absorbed in the details. As I gained experience I went through different stages until at the end of my career I was a supervisor and I could look at an emergency situation and know the whole over its parts. I reacted instinctively. To be a good trader you probably have to go through those stages to but the problem is our education can cost us capital. So learn to make a good plan and if it goes wrong you have the plan to review and understand what went wrong. If you trade interactively with the indicators on the chart caught up in the details you can loose the big picture.
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