The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

zacorbul · Post by **zacorbul** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:32 am

markprince82 » Sun Oct 25, 2015 11:49 pm wrote:Hi all, I am new to this great forum but not so new to trading.

I have a very nice price pattern prediction method if anybody is interested. It is based on a CCI wave that makes the same pattern over and over.

I decided to post it after looking at the chart posted on the first page of this thread, the pattern is text book on that chart and also on the monthly.

Sounds good, can you tell us more ?

Post by **sympathy** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:42 am

WhoKnows » Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:53 am wrote:Thanks ZumZum. My question was apparently not clear.
In hindsight it is easy to see that L1 was just finished with push L2 expected to go down. But you saw it already before the L2 push started.

I often find it very difficult to see if price is going stay in a range, or will leave the range, and start the trending move.

So how did you see that this time it was the 'real L1' that went down, and not again just another down-leg within the range, to be followed by another up-leg within the range (just as happened 3 times).
Or in other words... how did you see at the time that price was not going to follow the Yellow line?

Was it the price action on a lower time frame?
Just trying to learn from better 'foreseers' to prevent range-exit mistakes I made in the past...

hey bro, seems to me you are reading many books. this stuff is simple ok we just left level 1 still in level2 so its as simple as that. don't complicate things to ourself. Ok from the pattern you drew, price broke-out of the dynamic channel and retest it, that retest is your entry coming from level one.

Post by **forexgeeker** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:22 am

USDCHF H4 Pattern looks quite similar to CJ's tick chart.. :youknow:
Coincidence.? of course not...

Post by **ZumZum** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 11:07 am

WhoKnows » Mon Oct 26, 2015 10:53 am wrote:Thanks ZumZum. My question was apparently not clear.
In hindsight it is easy to see that L1 was just finished with push L2 expected to go down. But you saw it already before the L2 push started.

I often find it very difficult to see if price is going stay in a range, or will leave the range, and start the trending move.

So how did you see that this time it was the 'real L1' that went down, and not again just another down-leg within the range, to be followed by another up-leg within the range (just as happened 3 times).
Or in other words... how did you see at the time that price was not going to follow the Yellow line?

Was it the price action on a lower time frame?
Just trying to learn from better 'foreseers' to prevent range-exit mistakes I made in the past...

Hey buddy,

My answer is simple: I didn't know

and nobody knows for sure. I simply followed my plan since initial first move after M formed at 1.55, which is 3 day cycle. I actually mentioned it previously that day it could go both ways hence I closed my sell positions of the first move early. Then I was looking for FOX traces. In my opinion if FOX wanted to kill shorts it would be one fast candle up, but price held around 1.54 within stop hunt borders. To tell you the truth it's hard sometimes to give a clear and reasonable explanation. It's a game of probabilities one just need to make sure odds are in his favor. I don't think about the loss, cause my solution is simple - kill it asap. I care about profit and try to squeeze maximum from it. If I was wrong I would loose few pips only.
I'm not sure that makes any sense to you and it could be total crap so don't take it for granted

as I'm learning here. Professionals could correct me if I'm wrong.

GBPUSDM15.png

Post by **fahedksa** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:00 pm

Hi,
I am confuse with a point :
CJ said " A level usually entails price rising or falling to a point, then pulling back into a consolidation period before the next level begins"
If the price pull back to Asia range and close inside it ,Do we count it as level?

Post by **sympathy** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:03 pm

Am gona post some charts later in the day. you know how today is, its always a decision day, choppy day so guys should relax and pracice

Post by **WhoKnows** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 12:40 pm

My answer is simple: I didn't know and nobody knows for sure. ... To tell you the truth it's hard sometimes to give a clear and reasonable explanation. It's a game of probabilities one just need to make sure odds are in his favor. I don't think about the loss, cause my solution is simple - kill it asap. I care about profit and try to squeeze maximum from it. If I was wrong I would loose few pips only.
I'm not sure that makes any sense to you and it could be total crap so don't take it for granted as I'm learning here. Professionals could correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks ZumZum, ... you make perfect sense and you had a good plan. I also try to consider it to be a probability game.
Unfortunately my succeeds rate with these moves from ranges is not so good, so on my real account I try to not to take them and restrict myself to trade only when I understand the level. But I keep practicing them on Demo.
I so hoped you had a 'secret' insight.

The funny thing is, that you even might 'see' more than you realize. There is so much going on when evaluating trades that you might not even be aware of all the things (based on experience and practice) that you process subconsciously.

Post by **sympathy** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:37 pm

Just the way he taught me

no stories

Post by **sympathy** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:42 pm

Its just level count. when u understand them, you become a pro

Post by **Lowphat** » Mon Oct 26, 2015 2:55 pm

EU monthly daily