WhoKnows » Mon Oct 26, 2015 9:53 am wrote:Thanks ZumZum. My question was apparently not clear.
In hindsight it is easy to see that L1 was just finished with push L2 expected to go down. But you saw it already before the L2 push started.
I often find it very difficult to see if price is going stay in a range, or will leave the range, and start the trending move.
So how did you see that this time it was the 'real L1' that went down, and not again just another down-leg within the range, to be followed by another up-leg within the range (just as happened 3 times).
Or in other words... how did you see at the time that price was not going to follow the Yellow line?
Was it the price action on a lower time frame?
Just trying to learn from better 'foreseers' to prevent range-exit mistakes I made in the past...
and nobody knows for sure. I simply followed my plan since initial first move after M formed at 1.55, which is 3 day cycle. I actually mentioned it previously that day it could go both ways hence I closed my sell positions of the first move early. Then I was looking for FOX traces. In my opinion if FOX wanted to kill shorts it would be one fast candle up, but price held around 1.54 within stop hunt borders. To tell you the truth it's hard sometimes to give a clear and reasonable explanation. It's a game of probabilities one just need to make sure odds are in his favor. I don't think about the loss, cause my solution is simple - kill it asap. I care about profit and try to squeeze maximum from it. If I was wrong I would loose few pips only. 