stevehopwoodforex.com
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/
Print view

10.4 A Complete System
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=1481		 Page 94 of 745
Author:  spotdespot [ Sat Mar 02, 2013 10:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
A lot of good comments on this chart but imo there is a trend line missing that could change my view or at least make me look for price action to consider the short. What year was this Allison? (EDIT: Just seen the 2012 note - I'll have a look). I wouldn't mind seeing if there was any reaction at all.

Cheers,
Dave.

EDIT2: Just checked and it bounced right off that TL intersection, but only 30 pips or so and not very convincingly, then went straight back up through it.
Author:  cmeade2 [ Sat Mar 02, 2013 10:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Allison

Remarkably you seem to have gone back to an important point for the UsdJpy, at least from 10.4 perspectives.

On the one hand, you and many others might have gone short right here. On the other, I would have argued to wait for the RSI(2) to come down. But even if you followed my advice (because it will come down shortly), the fact is that the UsdJpy starts on a big upward rise. And so my advice would be a loss.

Not sure what to make of it, other than to say we need to keep focusing on issues like this.

cmeade2
allisonmagic wrote:
mjws00 wrote:So for me. That massive 3 week area of congestion, and that huge spikey mildly higher high are a problem. There is a huge zone and you have to wait for it to resolve. If it turns hard there you may get a compliant short. But I have had nothing but heartache trading too close to 240 without clear direction. I'd wuss out and wait for something clearer. With perfect price action, the RR on a trade back to the low is decent. It could easily go sideways, get messy and retest that high. Maybe a compliant 10.4 long at that point? I'd be on another chart. Not being a purist (I love the framework) I'd see how the bands are behaving on those spikes and possibly trade that high, to low, to back high. This chart is sideways.

Just another way of looking at it. Bob brings years and years of experience looking at charts to this framework. I got killed trading it blind in the sim. So I am picky and want confluence.

Maybe Bob will see it and chime in.
awesome info.. at this point i would do the same exact thing. just wuss out and look at some other pairs with a more clear direction
Author:  nanningbob [ Sat Mar 02, 2013 11:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
spotdespot wrote:A lot of good comments on this chart but imo there is a trend line missing that could change my view or at least make me look for price action to consider the short. What year was this Allison? (EDIT: Just seen the 2012 note - I'll have a look). I wouldn't mind seeing if there was any reaction at all.

Cheers,
Dave.

EDIT2: Just checked and it bounced right off that TL intersection, but only 30 pips or so and not very convincingly, then went straight back up through it.
OK this is how it works. I added numbers so you can see what I am talking about.

1. Price breaks through the 240 line and we look to reenter the trend.
2. Trades 2-4 are profitable but not big.
3. trade 5 area trade is not going anywhere and the STO 5 is not going back to the bottom but keeps retracing and ranging, warning you all week this trade may not go anywhere. You can give up on this trade for small profit or loss or eventually it comes back and hits the SL.
4. Trade area 6 price is bouncing off of the 240 and becomes a small profitable trade.
5. Price zooms back up and then back down and there are no trade signals for sells. When price came back to the line you could look for a buy signal but it zoomed back down so no entries ended up there and they would be taken back off the board. If you did enter here the SL would have been very short on a buy so very little risk.
6. Now you have an entry signal for a sell at 7. This is a very low risk high reward trade in that a SL would be very small if taken and very good if price goes into a trend.

You are also playing a classical TL trade playing a bounce off of the TL. If it goes into the trend it will be good, if it recrosses back over the 240, it will be a small SL. I will take these all day long. The only problem is the lot size because the indi shows a large lot size. I would hope people would have the sense you dont take a big lot size trade just because distance to the 240 line is small. That indi is designed to keep your lot sizes small when you are away from the 240 line so you dont eat up your account by trading too big.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sat Mar 02, 2013 11:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I want to also show what i am starting to call my Friday trade runs. Area 6 is showing a double top and Friday rolls in. I also had a winning trade there when it was at area 2. I have been placing a trade Sell limit at that double top and setting up pendings on the next two lines below creating a 3 level trade. Price drops like a rock for those last 12 hours and I get a 3 level trade. By playing those highs and previous R levels I have a very low risk high reward trade. It doesnt go south I have a small SL, if it does I reenter 1 to 2 more times and close out the trade at the end of the Euro session. USD/JPY is not moving much so I probably am ignoring this pair at that time but that is how 10.4 is designed to work.

The trade setup you are showing is on a Monday, area 7, I wouldnt be expecting much of a move on that trade anyway.
Author:  etheldreda [ Sun Mar 03, 2013 7:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Hi Bob,

is there any particular condition that I should cancel pending order which was set before?

Thank you,
-ethe-
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
etheldreda wrote:Hi Bob,

is there any particular condition that I should cancel pending order which was set before?

Thank you,
-ethe-
4 reasons I cancel a pending order.
1. I cancel all my pending orders near the close on Friday or when ever I am done trading for the week. I dont want to get caught with a bad entrance from weekend gaps.

2. I cancel the trade when it crosses the 240 line and I am not longer trading in the right direction of the trend. Obviously there is some discretion there if you are looking for a bounce off of the 240 line.

3. I am taking profit and no longer want to enter a trade until I get a new signal.

4. I already have enough trades going and dont want to enter anymore. In other words I want to limit my risk. It is not unusual for me to have 20 pending trades set on 10-15 currency pairs but when several are taken I cancel the others so I dont have too many trades going at once. For example I had pending trades going on all the GBP pairs during the week but once I had 3 pairs trading I canceled the others so as not to be too exposed with GBP trades.
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Mar 03, 2013 10:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
allisonmagic wrote:
nanningbob wrote:I want to also show what i am starting to call my Friday trade runs. Area 6 is showing a double top and Friday rolls in. I also had a winning trade there when it was at area 2. I have been placing a trade Sell limit at that double top and setting up pendings on the next two lines below creating a 3 level trade. Price drops like a rock for those last 12 hours and I get a 3 level trade. By playing those highs and previous R levels I have a very low risk high reward trade. It doesnt go south I have a small SL, if it does I reenter 1 to 2 more times and close out the trade at the end of the Euro session. USD/JPY is not moving much so I probably am ignoring this pair at that time but that is how 10.4 is designed to work.

The trade setup you are showing is on a Monday, area 7, I wouldnt be expecting much of a move on that trade anyway.

yes very informative thank you !

the lot sizes are based on my simulator backtest with 10k in the account.. it sets it automatically..

can you explain SL's .. i don't seem to have a very good grasp on it
The SL is set at the 240 line per rules set in the manual.
On trades that are very close to the 240 line I will use a previous high/low or nearest S/R line as a SL.
Author:  sk29 [ Sun Mar 03, 2013 3:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Hi Allison.

I noticed that you are using something called trade sim v 2.0. Could you please explain what this is and where I can get this? The website listed next to it does not work. I'm interested in a good testing / simulator software to practice 10.4 trades (in addition to forward tests). Any advice on this?

Thanks,
SK
allisonmagic wrote:
nanningbob wrote:I want to also show what i am starting to call my Friday trade runs. Area 6 is showing a double top and Friday rolls in. I also had a winning trade there when it was at area 2. I have been placing a trade Sell limit at that double top and setting up pendings on the next two lines below creating a 3 level trade. Price drops like a rock for those last 12 hours and I get a 3 level trade. By playing those highs and previous R levels I have a very low risk high reward trade. It doesnt go south I have a small SL, if it does I reenter 1 to 2 more times and close out the trade at the end of the Euro session. USD/JPY is not moving much so I probably am ignoring this pair at that time but that is how 10.4 is designed to work.

The trade setup you are showing is on a Monday, area 7, I wouldnt be expecting much of a move on that trade anyway.

yes very informative thank you !

the lot sizes are based on my simulator backtest with 10k in the account.. it sets it automatically..

can you explain SL's .. i don't seem to have a very good grasp on it
Author:  nanningbob [ Sun Mar 03, 2013 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
The daily pivot and mid pivot indicator still does not work properly on Mondays. It still is using the Sunday Candle and needs to be set to the Friday session. Can anyone adjust these to work properly.
Author:  roje [ Sun Mar 03, 2013 4:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Hi Bob,

how many pips under/above the S/R line do you make pending orders ? I tried to make exactly on S/R line, this is not good entry i think :-) So i tried it make it for about to the end of 1/5 between two lines. But success was depend on pair...
Do you use any indicator for indicate volatility and figuring exact entry point ?
I am sorry when it is written anywhere, but it stolen for me for this moment, i am not lazy, trust me :-D
Marek
All times are UTC Page 94 of 745

Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited