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10.4 Advanced and Counter
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Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:28 am ]
Post subject:  10.4 Advanced and Counter
Here's the deal. I think 10.4 is strong enough to trade both ways all day long. The setup and signal is one of the best I've seen. It is simple and accurate. Used with a little discretion I'm certainly willing to trade it back towards the line.

Perhaps I'm psycho, definitely a little more active. I also kind of like fading the masses. But don't worry, I'll get long with the trend when that trade comes.

Anyway, so we don't pollute anything sacred. Here is a little Hole in the wall to see a few of the darkside trades. Mostly generated by 10.4. Perhaps with a touch of band trading thrown in. Multi timeframe, lots of swings, but the occasional scalp.

I'm going to use a derivative of Bobs template, just two small additions, a 240 NRP TMA band and a zigzag that shows, the value of swings and the time it took to get there.

Maybe I'm just no good at waiting for price to come back 400 pips so I can finally go long again. Feel free to add trades. I'll post the bad and the good, but frankly 10.4 is resonating with me. Both the long and the short side of it. Trade 1 coming up.

Mike.
Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Feb 18, 2013 4:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
So the first setup jumping off the page is EURJPY. We have Lower Highs, and Lower Lows. So far 4 unsuccessful tries at a new top. Make no mistake this is counter trend. We will trade it tight. But Week Sup1 250 pips south is begging for us. At minimum the half sup1 157 pips.

I'm using 10.4 Signal as the setup. RSI pegged. H1 has already twitched AO turned. Safest would be an entry of the break of the pivot. So we could test it once look for the bounce up, then fade the highs... Or keep it simple and just sell it here. I'm just gonna sell it.

Absolute stop will be Weekly Res1. If we are there, we are WRONG. Super Res at 126.50. Good chance 126.00 holds. I'll go to BE once Weekly Pivot is held.

Normally I am early on entries and enter half, followed by the second half. A second entry at the top of TMA or around MidRes 1 is my preferred entry method. Often I don't get the chance... I never take the third swing.

So what are you trading? Bob's cool system triggered any thoughts?
Author:  WideEyed [ Mon Feb 18, 2013 6:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
Just to say, I'm finding your posts and thoughts/experiments interesting and useful.

I'll add: I'm looking at pairs other than EURJPY. This is a system apparently designed for trends and the long trend in EJ seems over for now - the pair has been ranging all month.

My guess: USDCAD, AUDUSD, GBPanything, EURUSD, AUDNZD might work better with this method in the current market.
Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Feb 18, 2013 7:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
The problems I had with 10.4 in my testing were all around market turns and or flat conditions. But the problem wasn't with bad signals, or whipsaws... only that we are incredibly slow to reverse because we are choosing to define the trend via such a slow signal. So you keep pounding away in one direction for quite a while after the market has turned. Meanwhile ignoring beautiful set ups in the other direction. I can't afford to trade that way.

I agree there are a lot of pairs flattening or turning at the moment. But the swings on the active pairs are still 200+ in each direction. Plenty of room to take a slice out of. It is where every trend following system gets crushed.

I'm looking to see how the ideas can be adapted for more discretionary traders. Post a chart when you see something. Maybe the group discovers something awesome. This is a simple framework. I like real time trades so we get to see the good and bad of the ideas vs. cherry-picked or only positive history.

Mike
Author:  WideEyed [ Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
Thought: A way to improve the percentage of wins may be to take only those qualifying 10.4 trades that are in the direction of the trend.
Author:  mjws00 [ Tue Feb 19, 2013 7:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
Frankie finally gave me enough of a push to have the Pivot acting as resistance. So Trade to BE.

Didn't get a chance for a second entry. London could still test us, I will likely sell half if all momentum fades. So far decent trade. RSI still hasn't budged off overbought, so we hopefully have a ways to go yet.
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
Thanks for opening a thread on CT trading. I learned the hard way that teaching range, CT, and trend trading simply was way too much at once. That was what happened with 10.0 and I vowed not to get involved doing that again. Some traders just cant differentiate and start mixing up the rules and then ............... so I am going to shy away from doing that. However, it doesnt mean I dont CT trade I cant affored to drive everyone crazy by doing so. When I was developing 10.4 I knew turnaround in trend will drive everyone crazy but I figure there will always be some pair showing good trades. Like now the gbp and nzd are showing good signals while the JPY is probably going to range for a month or two now.

So before I settled on using mid pivots with RSI 2 indi I was looking at MA and the 20 MA was being tested I looked at this as a CT trade. Depending on the volatility of a currency pair you would look at S2R2 lines or less volatile MS2/RS2 lines along with RSI 2 and the 20 MA. Those trades crossing back down would be a great entrance most of the time. Here is a pic of eur/aud showing what I mean. The 20 MA LWMA OPEN often enters trades just below the last swing low so that is why I liked it. Anyway some food for thought.

The Jump EA would be the perfect tool to stop back lash or a 7-10 MA used as a SL following be good also. See pic below.
Author:  mjws00 [ Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
Thanks Bob.

I really think you've hit upon a gem of a signal. Believe me I am playing and have run months and months through the strategy tester. Primarily I'm using it to simplify my alerts for potential setups. Brilliant for a swing trader as there is typically tons of time to get on board.

Enjoy your holiday. Looks like the jetlag has you at the moment.
Author:  Gertje [ Tue Feb 19, 2013 12:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
nanningbob wrote:Thanks for opening a thread on CT trading. I learned the hard way that teaching range, CT, and trend trading simply was way too much at once. That was what happened with 10.0 and I vowed not to get involved doing that again. Some traders just cant differentiate and start mixing up the rules and then ............... so I am going to shy away from doing that. However, it doesnt mean I dont CT trade I cant affored to drive everyone crazy by doing so. When I was developing 10.4 I knew turnaround in trend will drive everyone crazy but I figure there will always be some pair showing good trades. Like now the gbp and nzd are showing good signals while the JPY is probably going to range for a month or two now.

So before I settled on using mid pivots with RSI 2 indi I was looking at MA and the 20 MA was being tested I looked at this as a CT trade. Depending on the volatility of a currency pair you would look at S2R2 lines or less volatile MS2/RS2 lines along with RSI 2 and the 20 MA. Those trades crossing back down would be a great entrance most of the time. Here is a pic of eur/aud showing what I mean. The 20 MA LWMA OPEN often enters trades just below the last swing low so that is why I liked it. Anyway some food for thought.

The Jump EA would be the perfect tool to stop back lash or a 7-10 MA used as a SL following be good also. See pic below.
Would you use the same entry-points? (mid)pivotpoints indicated by 10.4?
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 Advanced and Counter
Gertje wrote:
nanningbob wrote:Thanks for opening a thread on CT trading. I learned the hard way that teaching range, CT, and trend trading simply was way too much at once. That was what happened with 10.0 and I vowed not to get involved doing that again. Some traders just cant differentiate and start mixing up the rules and then ............... so I am going to shy away from doing that. However, it doesnt mean I dont CT trade I cant affored to drive everyone crazy by doing so. When I was developing 10.4 I knew turnaround in trend will drive everyone crazy but I figure there will always be some pair showing good trades. Like now the gbp and nzd are showing good signals while the JPY is probably going to range for a month or two now.

So before I settled on using mid pivots with RSI 2 indi I was looking at MA and the 20 MA was being tested I looked at this as a CT trade. Depending on the volatility of a currency pair you would look at S2R2 lines or less volatile MS2/RS2 lines along with RSI 2 and the 20 MA. Those trades crossing back down would be a great entrance most of the time. Here is a pic of eur/aud showing what I mean. The 20 MA LWMA OPEN often enters trades just below the last swing low so that is why I liked it. Anyway some food for thought.

The Jump EA would be the perfect tool to stop back lash or a 7-10 MA used as a SL following be good also. See pic below.
Would you use the same entry-points? (mid)pivotpoints indicated by 10.4?
I dont know, I know I wouldnt try multi level trading going against a prevailing trend. I might try recovery in certain situations. This whole area of 10.4 I stopped because of my trip. I basically gave you a rough outline of what I have looked at so far for range trading. I really want to see what range trading on a daily pivot S/R would look like on a 1H or lower chart. But that will take weeks of study. However, if your thread takes off with some ideas that would save me some time.
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