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zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
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Author:  4EverMaAT [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 12:04 pm ]
Post subject:  zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
Indicator overload has been something that has plagued many technical traders for a long time. It usually is a result of trying to find the 'correct' predictive method for the market. It starts as one indicator...then 2 indicators, then 5, then xx. There is so much confusion on those charts, it becomes almost impossible to make a decision to enter and exit with confidence, let alone apply a systematic approach to trading.
Apami 3.0 confusion vs clarity.jpg
If there was a way to see price action for what it is, and in a uniform fashion, then building systems would be much easier. As a special thank you gift for being recommended by Global Prime and Rapa Capital, I would like to upload an indicator that i think will change the way you look at price action for years to come. The Amazing Price Action Movement Indicator, or APAMI completely eliminates the lagging and repainting problems that most indicators suffer from.

It is extremely easy to use; most beginners will only need to focus on the move length (moveComplete), and it is already prepared for 5 digits broker pricing.

- The whitepaper abstract covers more of the technical background as to how the indicator is performed. A video link is included for those who prefer a video explanation
- The Empty4 and mt5 versions have their quick install text files. Empty4 and mt5 have identical functionality
- The instruction manual pdf covers the inputs.

Feedback is appreciated.
Author:  garyfritz [ Wed Feb 27, 2013 2:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
If I understand your videos correctly, this indicator measures the length of a move. Towards the end of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKD35vFTaxQ you show the market hitting the desired move size, which you apparently set arbitrarily, and then you expect the market to turn. In your video example you set a bunch of trades against the current market direction, expecting the market to turn after it finished moving your arbitrarily-set distance.

That's just a grid-trader or Martingale approach, and the danger of those methods is well established. Nothing says the market "has to" turn after it moves a particular distance. If it doesn't, all those counter-trend trades will kill you.

You've put a lot of effort into making fancy videos to promote this approach, and posting them to every forex forum in sight. Obviously you're selling something and you're using this indicator as a way to attract people to your product. That in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing, but be upfront about it.
Author:  4EverMaAT [ Thu Feb 28, 2013 4:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
I appreciate your feedback. Let me see if I can clear up some misunderstandings.
garyfritz wrote:If I understand your videos correctly, this indicator measures the length of a move. Towards the end of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKD35vFTaxQ you show the market hitting the desired move size, which you apparently set arbitrarily, and then you expect the market to turn. In your video example you set a bunch of trades against the current market direction, expecting the market to turn after it finished moving your arbitrarily-set distance.
The moveComplete distance is arbitrary in the sense that the user must set this in advance. Afterwards, it is the same distance until the user goes back into the indicator properties and changes it (except when using volatility-adjusted APAMI; not included here)

We do not have the benefit of hindsight when implementing trading strategies in real time. Apami is designed to keep your attention in the present moment; where price is moving right now.

That video had footage from a real account.
That's just a grid-trader or Martingale approach, and the danger of those methods is well established. Nothing says the market "has to" turn after it moves a particular distance. If it doesn't, all those counter-trend trades will kill you.
Risk management and using systems approaches is, from my experience and from what I can prove, is far superior to a buy/hold or a predictive strategy, especially using single trades coupled with arbitrary stops losses/TPs.

The grid in that video is not 'just a grid', but has a fairly sophisticated and customizable grid levels with the ability to change how often and how large the trade size at any level, and the TP also adjusts with the position sizing in a structured and dynamic format to maximize profits. Martingale is not required; single lot sizes or any lot sizes can be used.

The market can go where it wants, but it typically trends and ranges. There are provisions for tsunamis; you cut your pre-defined losses and move on to the next tradecycle. We don't need to predict the market; only focus on the 1/2 that we have control over...mainly the risk management.

I am surprised at the amount of people who are doing their best to avoid or run from risks. Why did you come to forex or the financial markets to trade? Gov't backed bonds are much safer, and you can be happy with 1-3% a year (uncompounded), and your money is tied up for 3-5 years with a penalty for liquidating early. But much safer :D
You've put a lot of effort into making fancy videos to promote this approach, and posting them to every forex forum in sight. Obviously you're selling something and you're using this indicator as a way to attract people to your product. That in itself isn't necessarily a bad thing, but be upfront about it.
The videos are designed to give users a clearer insight into the apami whitepaper and indicator usage; make them easier to understand. It took quite a few hours of screen recording on the server (which is also good for catching programming bugs, btw). Then I took parts that were most relevant and prepared the whitepaper to explain how it works.

Rules that you don't follow won't work. And you cannot follow rules you do not understand.

The indicator is free, with no obligation to purchase anything. I do have paid stuff, if you are interested. I am a member of several popular forex forums, as I'm sure many people here are as well. Now that I think about it, some of the information in the reply here I only revealed here so far, but the indicator was not exclusive to SHF forum.

I think I covered everything. I'm sure you have had a chance to view the indicator on a few charts by now...what do you think of the functionality? Was there something in the whitepaper you did not understand?
Author:  garyfritz [ Thu Feb 28, 2013 6:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
4EverMaAT wrote:The market can go where it wants, but it typically trends and ranges. ...
I am surprised at the amount of people who are doing their best to avoid or run from risks.
Those two statements fit together well. The market "typically" does X, and a grid or Martingale trader will "typically" crank out consistent profits.

Inexperienced traders -- who have not learned their lessons the hard way -- tend to ignore risk and look only at potential reward. They look at the "typical" case and ignore the disaster situation. No surprise, they tend to blow up their accounts pretty regularly. Those traders are attracted to grids & Marts, since they look SO great. Until they vaporize your account.

Experienced traders know you have to focus on risk if you want to survive for the long haul. You might have to pass on flashy short-term returns, but you can be pretty certain you won't blow up your account.

I claim grid/Mart traders use that dangerous strategy because they don't really understand the math behind what they're doing. They don't understand how likely a blowup is, how it can happen at any time, and how much damage it will do when it happens. They assume "it'll never happen to me" or "I'll bank a bunch of profits before it happens," and they continue picking up pennies off the train tracks -- until the day the train flattens them.

As an analogy, I drive fairly aggressively. But I ALWAYS wear a seat belt. Your "why do you run from risk" philosophy would say the seat belt is a waste of time -- but it saved my life once. I "wear a seat belt" when I trade, too.

Grids/Marts are the Russian Roulettes of trading. They work great, until they don't, but the failure case is really, really bad. (Maybe your "not just a grid" approach actually manages to avoid the failure case, but I am very skeptical. I consider grids/Marts "guilty until proven innocent." So far nobody's shown me anything that honestly avoided disaster.)

If you want to play Russian Roulette with your account, that's your choice. The rewards of the risky strategy might be worth it to you. But you should be very aware of the risks you're taking on, and you should make them clear to the naive reader when you promote a strategy like that.
Author:  mjws00 [ Thu Feb 28, 2013 6:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
Must be something you don't understand in the whitepaper, Gary. ;) It's not just a grid, it's customizable. (Sorry couldn't resist) :twisted:
As a special thank you gift for being recommended by Global Prime and Rapa Capital
This is gold.

I thought Gary was just gonna hit delete. But you survived first contact. Solid work.

Regards.
Author:  4EverMaAT [ Fri Mar 01, 2013 1:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
mjws00 wrote:Must be something you don't understand in the whitepaper, Gary. ;) It's not just a grid, it's customizable. (Sorry couldn't resist) :twisted:
As a special thank you gift for being recommended by Global Prime and Rapa Capital
This is gold.

I thought Gary was just gonna hit delete. But you survived first contact. Solid work.

Regards.
Thanks, i think. :D
Author:  4EverMaAT [ Fri Mar 01, 2013 2:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
garyfritz wrote:
4EverMaAT wrote:The market can go where it wants, but it typically trends and ranges. ...
I am surprised at the amount of people who are doing their best to avoid or run from risks.
Those two statements fit together well. The market "typically" does X, and a grid or Martingale trader will "typically" crank out consistent profits.

Inexperienced traders -- who have not learned their lessons the hard way -- tend to ignore risk and look only at potential reward. They look at the "typical" case and ignore the disaster situation. No surprise, they tend to blow up their accounts pretty regularly. Those traders are attracted to grids & Marts, since they look SO great. Until they vaporize your account.

Experienced traders know you have to focus on risk if you want to survive for the long haul. You might have to pass on flashy short-term returns, but you can be pretty certain you won't blow up your account.
Correct about focusing on risk. The problem is defining the risk clearly, and in a way that is reproducible. In a similar way to defining 'price action' clearly (which APAMI does). A grid helps you to define risk clearly. You can prepare your strategy limits ahead of time and the position sizing is fully transparent. Are you proposing an alternative method to managing risk?
I claim grid/Mart traders use that dangerous strategy because they don't really understand the math behind what they're doing. They don't understand how likely a blowup is, how it can happen at any time, and how much damage it will do when it happens. They assume "it'll never happen to me" or "I'll bank a bunch of profits before it happens," and they continue picking up pennies off the train tracks -- until the day the train flattens them.

As an analogy, I drive fairly aggressively. But I ALWAYS wear a seat belt. Your "why do you run from risk" philosophy would say the seat belt is a waste of time -- but it saved my life once. I "wear a seat belt" when I trade, too.

Grids/Marts are the Russian Roulettes of trading. They work great, until they don't, but the failure case is really, really bad. (Maybe your "not just a grid" approach actually manages to avoid the failure case, but I am very skeptical. I consider grids/Marts "guilty until proven innocent." So far nobody's shown me anything that honestly avoided disaster.)

If you want to play Russian Roulette with your account, that's your choice. The rewards of the risky strategy might be worth it to you. But you should be very aware of the risks you're taking on, and you should make them clear to the naive reader when you promote a strategy like that.
Healthy skepticism is good. 8-) You wouldn't blame the vehicle for your accident, correct? Why blame a trading system for incorrect settings? You could use the skepticism to learn more about the system and how it would work for you.

As long as your strategy has a positive expectancy, it doesn't matter the betting strategy you use or how aggressive you use it, you will come out ahead over many repetitions. Apami can assist in giving you positive expectancy. Martingale is not required, single lot size averaging at a minimum is recommended. I never recommend a single position over long ranges, as I've seen those strategies requires a [mystical, black box] predictive entry model with near 100% accuracy in order to have positive expectancy.

Conversely, with negative expectancy, it doesn't matter what betting strategy you use or how aggressive you use it, you will come out behind your starting balance over many repetitions.
Author:  garyfritz [ Fri Mar 01, 2013 6:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
I WOULD blame the vehicle if it had a timebomb in the back seat!

I don't think grids/Marts are a matter of "incorrect settings." I think they're inherently dangerous.

I'd love to be proven wrong. Show me how your grid settings defuse the bomb.
Author:  4EverMaAT [ Fri Mar 01, 2013 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: zero lag trend measurement and direction indicator
garyfritz wrote:I WOULD blame the vehicle if it had a timebomb in the back seat!

I don't think grids/Marts are a matter of "incorrect settings." I think they're inherently dangerous.

I'd love to be proven wrong. Show me how your grid settings defuse the bomb.
Lol. Another thread or another time. but in the meantime you can search for 'forex cost averaging spreadsheet' and there is a video and actual excel spreadsheet to get you started. I did veer off topic when I began talking about money management and trading strategy. I wanted this topic to be more about the indicator itself, and any related points raised in the whitepaper. :ugeek:
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