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TRADING – fully dressed!
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=3465
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Author:  SteveHopwood [ Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:32 pm ]
Post subject:  TRADING – fully dressed!

Brilliant Khalid. Thanks for starting this thread. I shall add a link to it in my round up next Sunday.

:xm:
Author:  4xBones [ Mon Mar 03, 2014 7:55 am ]
Post subject:  TRADING – fully dressed!

Khalaad » Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:06 pm wrote:I extensively use cycles in my trading.....
Thanks for sharing, Khalid.

You say you use cycles extensively, do you mind elaborating how you go about identifying your cycles?

Cheers, Bones
Author:  jago25 [ Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Volume

Hi Khalaad.
I had a look at GBPUSD after reading your journal post.
The first thing I think is that you're comparing to USD. Maybe it's good to check that it's not USD causing changes by bringing up a single CSS chart. Checked that and it's only the 2008 massive dip for USD so seems safe to disregard.
Since then the volume has been a lot higher. In general I see on this very big weekly chart, the Bank of England sneaking in money printing. Then we had the announcement for reducing the inflationary printing and we've had green candles all the way up since pretty much.

The trajectory isn't particularly steep. In fact it's slowed down a bit.

On the other hand I see a slow wind down in volume and in fact speeding up since the end of feb. I'd keep an eye on this. GBP loves to pin around and also bigger false breakouts. It could be the case that it pins up beyond that previous high you mention... only to drop right back somewhere.

For me this volume dropping off warns of change in direction. Since we've been going up then if I have to gamble then I would go for down around the top of that previous 2009 pin. So we're probably going to go up a bit first.

It's interesting to see the BoE rinse and repeat since the inflation printing went crazy and then watch it go loose on that a bit. The winding of the market is really well done - so much volume.

Disclaimer: This is my first proper opinion on volume. I hope we can get a 3rd opinion on it.

(As an aside, I actually had an error in my FXCM Empty4 feed or something the first instance of Empty4 I opened(analysis only £30 live account) ... switched to GlobalPrime and that feed was good...)
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Khalaad » Sun Apr 20, 2014 6:47 am wrote:
Khalaad » Tue 08 Apr 2014 11:39 pm wrote:GBPUSD is once again at from where is has turned down so many times during the last four years. However, if it decisively breaks the blue line to the upside, it probably will be like riding a bronco; and very profitable.

Will I have the courage to go long?

I honestly do not know. First of all, I will need a low-risk entry point; having already missed one very such opportunity yesterday, 7 April 2014.

Khalid
On 9 April 2014, GBPUSD closed at highest level for since 2009 (the orange line on the daily chart); twice since then above this orange line. And the close on Friday, 18 April 2014, was the highest weekly close since the week of 12 October 2008 (the orange line on the weekly chart).

There are a number of ‘what ifs’ for the bullish case, but in my opinion nothing decisive so far.

Khalid
Author:  jago25 [ Mon Apr 21, 2014 11:00 am ]
Post subject:  TRADING – fully dressed!

hmm...
yes it make sense to be poised for this one. It looks to my eye like the pattern has an element of ascending to it with also some expansion recently... comparing the stats on this:
Important Bull Market Results for Ascending Triangles:
Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 17 out of 23; 9 out of 21
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 13%; 11%
Average rise/decline: 35%; 19%
Throwback/pullback rate: 57%; 49%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 75%; 68%

Symmetrical Triangles: Important Bull Market Results:
Overall performance rank for up/down breakouts (1 is best): 16 out of 23; 15 out of 21
Break even failure rate for up/down breakouts: 9%; 13%
Average rise/decline: 31%; 17%
Throwback/pullback rate: 37%; 59%
Percentage meeting price target for up/down breakouts: 66%; 48%

Risk looks good in any case:
Busted triangles:
All busted ascending triangles: 26% of the time.
All busted symmetrical triangles: 27% of the time.

Reference:
http://thepatternsite.com/msymtri.html
(best site on patterns I've seen... because it has the figures)
Busted ascending triangle looks like low probability but...
I don't know... I'm just so cynical regards GBP and busted patterns. I need someone with more experience of trading GBP - I just don't have enough trading experience. It's just a gut feeling. A gut feeling that it will breakout to 1.73 and then come back down again. But this experience is on smaller timeframes.

There's some ideas for trading a busted triangle at the base here:
http://thepatternsite.com/BustAscTriangles.html

This drew my attention:
"After a high volume breakout, performance doesn't improve much but failures triple"


I'm sure there's a way to position around both possibilities and also to factor in these stats for position sizing.
Author:  SteveHopwood [ Sun Jun 08, 2014 9:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Gratitude and Trading

Khalaad » Sat Jun 07, 2014 4:42 pm wrote:Tonight I feel a very inadequate human being.

Khalid
Hmmmm. Hard to come much more adequate than you, my friend.

Guys, Khalid's post is his valedictory. He sent me an email tonight saying that he will not be able to contribute here in the future.

Khalid is one of a group of people who came together back in about 2007, at Forex Factory. We have grown up together in forex trading terms, and have been learning to navigate the train wreck of this business ever since. We have all benefited from his warmth, wisdom, humour and support.

Khalid, we will miss you and hope you will return one day. All our best wishes to you.

Thank you, my friend.

:xm:
Author:  SpiderX [ Mon Jun 09, 2014 2:56 am ]
Post subject:  Gratitude and Trading

SteveHopwood » Mon Jun 09, 2014 5:14 am wrote: Khalid, we will miss you and hope you will return one day. All our best wishes to you.

Thank you, my friend.

:xm:

Must have missed something....is Khalid leaving ?

Cheers
Author:  Radar [ Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:31 am ]
Post subject:  Gratitude and Trading

Hey Khalid,

The little I did with your TT EA comes from what I have learnt from yourself and many other contributors to Steve's threads on FF, and here on this forum, (I quite like that single-line test for a new bar that you put in the original TT).

I'll keep an eye on the TT thread, and if I code or discover anything that may be of interest to you, I know where to send it.

Good luck with your future endeavors.

Take care,

&

Have fun!

Radar =8^)
Author:  AnotherBrian [ Fri Jul 18, 2014 3:11 am ]
Post subject:  TRADING – fully dressed!

Khalid once sent me a couple of emails that I read a few times to fully digest his wisdom. What he shared with me was the single most important part of the Crossfader Gold Ea that I currently enjoy.
He came out of nowhere and offered to help me, sharing his experience and wisdom. This time I thank him in a public forum! Khalid, maybe you don't realise your impact on people, but thanks for taking that step, appreciated.
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