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| How to adapt lowpass/moving averages periods to the market? https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=3840 |
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| Author: | Mithrandir777 [ Sun Sep 21, 2014 11:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | How to adapt lowpass/moving averages periods to the market? |
Hi, I have been programming some eas with lowpass that catch for instance trends of 2 month length or 1 month length. But I found that strategies that succeed in backtests for instance EUR/USD in 2009-2014 fail miserably in 2002-2008. Is there a way to adapt the moving average period to the market conditions? Thanks! |
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| Author: | Cubic [ Wed Sep 24, 2014 6:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | How to adapt lowpass/moving averages periods to the market? |
Nice! Your first post here is a million dollar question There have been a number of attempts to use market conditions to adjust indicator parameter values on the fly: -The Vidya (Volatility Index Dynamic Average) indicator is an exponential moving average that uses market volatility to alter the M.A.'s length, -The Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average uses Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio to adjust the M.A., -The Mesa Adaptive Moving Average and other efforts have attempted to identify and use the dominant frequencies in the price waveform to adjust the M.A. length, -Then you have self-correcting Kalman filters: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalman_filter ..., the Ehlers' Fractal Adaptive Moving Average, Russian work with "digital filters" rebuilt/customized periodically for the market being traded, and IIRC, I think Mark Jurik might've been adjusting Jurik Moving Average lookback or phase parameters with his Composite Fractal Behavior indicator. You get the idea... There have been a lot of attempts at this. Other efforts have been made to alter system rules on the fly, like this: http://www.earnforex.com/forex-e-books/ ... rategy.pdf ...others have opted for frequent re-optimization. To some extent the answer (assuming that there really is one This post is barely 'scratching the surface'. I hope some of the Old Hands on this board will chime in on this important question. |
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| Author: | Mithrandir777 [ Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | How to adapt lowpass/moving averages periods to the market? |
Thanks for your input Cubic, I really appreciate it! And I know it's a difficult question, I don't intend it to have a definite answer but at least some approximation to the problem. I also would appreciate if more members contribute to the discussion I have tried using MAMA but it produced too many false signals compared to a lowpass filter. Another approach I found now -instead of rearranging the signal according to market conditions- is to filter the signals when the market has low volatility, for example using the Alligator indicator. I'll try to make a Alligator Lowpass filters and report if it gives good results. |
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| Author: | Mithrandir777 [ Sat Sep 27, 2014 3:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | How to adapt lowpass/moving averages periods to the market? |
What are this "Russian work" with digital filters? And what is IIRC ? I didn't find it in google. |
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| Author: | Cubic [ Sat Sep 27, 2014 8:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | How to adapt lowpass/moving averages periods to the market? |
This was something that I saw years ago. It was formerly at http://www.fin-ware.com. I was just surprised to see that it is now an inactive website. Here's what the site looked like in 2012: http://web.archive.org/web/201203112058 ... -ware.com/ Many of the site's pages and 2 articles are preserved, but unfortunately the sample download links no longer work. I did a little digging and it looks like http://finware.ru/ is the new online home for the company behind this tool. I have no affiliation. ~~~~ If I Recall Correctly (abbreviated as "IIRC" ~~~~ I just bumped into this: http://fx.qrz.ru/ and this, http://www.mql5.com/en/articles/32 - however I've only given them a quick skim. ~~~~ You may find this interesting: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=494141 |
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| Author: | Mithrandir777 [ Mon Oct 06, 2014 2:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | How to adapt lowpass/moving averages periods to the market? |
I have been busy with studies and work the last weeks. I have added to my script a filter that measures volatility. I could have used ATR but for some reason I found Alligator interesting so here it is the script and the results, the language used is lite-c from the Zorro platform: Code: Select all Walk-Forward Test Workshop4_2Pc EUR/USD - performance report Simulation period 01.05.2002-31.12.2008 Test period 30.11.2004-31.12.2008 WFO test cycles 9 x 2742 bars (23 weeks) Training cycles 10 x 15538 bars (134 weeks) Monte Carlo cycles 200 Lookback time 2000 bars (17 weeks) Assumed slippage 10.0 sec Spread 2.3 pips (roll -0.10/0.04) Contracts per lot 1000.0 Gross win/loss 117$ / -44$ (+941p) Average profit 18$/year, 1.48$/month, 0.07$/day Max drawdown -34$ 47% (MAE -42$ 58%) Total down time 41% (TAE 9%) Max down time 68 weeks from Jul 2007 Largest margin 5.00$ Trade volume 17479$ (4278$/year) Transaction costs -3.02$ spr, 0.10$ slp, -0.88$ rol Capital required 34$ Number of trades 17 (5/year, 1/week, 1/day) Percent winning 41% Max win/loss 42$ / -16$ Avg trade profit 4.28$ 55.4p (+215.8p / -56.9p) Avg trade slippage 0.01$ 0.1p (+0.6p / -0.3p) Avg trade bars 151 (+346 / -14) Max trade bars 542 (4 weeks) Time in market 10% Max open trades 1 Max loss streak 6 (uncorrelated 6) Annual return 52% Profit factor 2.65 (PRR 1.25) Sharpe ratio 0.75 Kelly criterion 1.08 R2 coefficient 0.385 Ulcer index 6.0% Prediction error 125% Confidence level AR DDMax Capital 10% 103% 14$ 17$ 20% 93% 17$ 19$ 30% 85% 18$ 21$ 40% 82% 20$ 22$ 50% 77% 21$ 23$ 60% 73% 22$ 24$ 70% 67% 25$ 27$ 80% 62% 28$ 29$ 90% 55% 32$ 33$ 95% 50% 36$ 36$ 100% 33% 58$ 54$ Portfolio analysis OptF ProF Win/Loss Wgt% Cycles EUR/USD .166 2.65 7/10 100.0 ./XX//\\\ EUR/USD:L .169 3.14 5/6 88.4 ..\///\\\ EUR/USD:S .147 1.60 2/4 11.6 .//\...\. http://postimg.org/image/z3wui0ifz/ As you can see, I used Alligator lines closeness as a measure of volatility, I normalize their differences and when they go out of a threshold (which is higher the less volatile the market is, this threshold can be adapted to market conditions, maybe using equity curve trading for that) I consider it a signal to buy or sell. This has turned the loser system into a winning one with good Sharpe Ratio for a trend system and an ulcer of 6%. What do you think? Do you think It has any bias or curve fitting? I look forward to hearing your inputs. Thanks! |
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