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| Pip Continuation Probabilities https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=539 |
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| Author: | Fx93 [ Sat May 05, 2012 11:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Pip Continuation Probabilities |
I ran across some posts by TudorGirl on FF who gave a PDF by a group which I've attached below that tested the following: If after the close of a bar price moves 10 pips in one direction, what is the probability it will move a further 10 pips in the same direction? She said she was using this profitably on the 15M chart: "If the candle goes 10 pips in a given direction, open the trade in the same direction at the 10-pip point. You know from the tables that there is a high chance it will go another 5 (or 7). So you can set a STOP/LIMIT or-der with SL/TP in advance as you know exactly where you want to get in (CANDLEOPEN +/- 10 pips) and get out (CANDLEOPEN +/- 17 pips)." I like the idea of using mathematical odds like this. I thought I'd attach the PDF of the study in case anyone wants to do some backtests on this. It has various pips moves and timeframe results, so one could test various settings. |
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