This thread arises from my experiments with trading each week in the direction of the previous week (viewtopic.php?p=173257#p173257). They were all failures. At the same time I tried trading the same way but on the monthly charts.
November was a loser. December and January were profitable. The jury was still out on February at the time of writing. It was profitable ultimately..
Here is the gig:
- Early on in the month, send a trade in the direction of travel during the previous month so long as that direction accords with Bob's moving average (details below).
- Close down at the end of the month definitely, or earlier at a chosen profit target.
- Rinse and repeat.
Here are the details of the demo for you to follow:
Login: 2793328
Investor: NXum0endhU
I have come to the conclusion that it is probably a good idea to close down when profits reach a pre-determined level, if ever they do, so I am using my Simplest Ever Basket Manager to achieve this.
There are some software attachments:
- Send trades in monthly direction script: go on, take a guess. I talk about Bob's moving average filter further down.
- UPL highlow indi: keeps track of the highest and lowest cash UPL of the position, so we can see where these went.
- Global variable deletion script: UPL hilo indi keeps track of the highest/lowest by saving the values to Global Variables. These are small files saved to the platform and need deleting when we open a fresh position. The script achieves this.
- Simplest basket manager ever: load it onto a blank chart (Blank.tpl) set your cash profit target, sit back and let it do its job.
- Monthly trading indicator: This is not part of the trading; I wrote it merely to confirm that the order sending script was working properly. There are three columns:
- The list of pairs you are monitoring.
- The direction of travel of the previous candle.
- The trading direction indicated by Bob's optional moving average filter.
- Position monitoring indicator basic: this shows the progress (or otherwise) of individual pairs. Set up a chart as you like it then add the indi. Whenever you want to examine an individual pair, then drag the order from open trades window onto the chart and it will automatically change to that pair.
Bob taught us that prices on the monthly chart rarely change direction to form a trend in the opposite direction. As I recall, he wanted to use a 1 period MN1 moving average. 1 period MA was not available at the time, so he devised an emulation by creating a 240 period H4 MA:
- Market is above the MA: buy only.
- Market is below the MA: sell only.
I reckon it will be 12 months before we can come to any firm conclusions unless we instantly hit a run of losses. We shall see.
Hey ho.