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Intraday with HGI
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Author:  TableTop [ Mon Jul 10, 2023 6:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Intraday with HGI
I've had a love-hate relationship with HGI. I have had some great runs but also given a lot back to the markets. For whatever reason, I was not reliable with HGI. A number of months ago I started going through the Captain Jack content, and a load of youtube content, discord channels, forex factory...and so on! Off the back of this, I have worked out some basic intraday trading setups which don't require me to sit at the screen all day. In essence, I am looking for the market to setup in a particular way trapping traders at a high or low, then moving the market very quickly back in the opposite direction to take out their stop losses. Over the last few months, I've dropped HGI on the chart to see if it can help, thought that it looks interesting, but been too busy with live trades and have not followed through on any detailed investigation.

Over the weekend I saw Steve had posted a new manual strategy - viewtopic.php?t=6340 - using HGI and NB 240 as a filter. This got me interested (again) in using HGI to augment my manual trading strategy. My thinking is that when the market sets up, HGI will confirm the entry, and potential places to add to the trade and exit the trade.

This is a work in progress and may well come to nothing but watching HGI (this morning) give correct entries at my 'areas of interest' made me try a live trade this afternoon (see charts below).


The Setup

I use the H1 and M15 charts to give me a picture of market structure - i.e. are we in an up (higher highs and higher low) or down (lower highs and lower lows) market?

I am looking for 3 push patterns - the 'Captain Jack' posts go into a lot of detail on this. This may be 3 days of new highs, or it can be 3 sessions (Asain Open, London Open, NY Open), 3 hours and will often end with 3 bull or bear M15 candles. There is a very prolific YouTuber on intraday trading - google Stacey Burke Trading, and take a look through his Start Here playlist if you find reading all of CJ's content hard going.

I am looking for these patterns to culminate at a significant level. This can be a previous day high/low, a week high/low, a session's high or low, or a significant swing. If price is also at a round number (00 and 50 being the main levels and 25 or 75 secondary), then I'm even more interested.

In addition to the level, timing is important. I am looking for the setup to form around the London Equity Open (0800 UK), or the NY Equity Open (1430 UK). It may be an hour before or an hour after but the big moves tend to occur around the equity hour. There are times when the setup happens later but most big moves are over before 1200 in the UK session, and 1600 in the NY session.

The Trade
In most cases, I am looking for a reversal trade setup. Price auctions to a level, traders are triggered into the market (e.g. price auctions to the previous day high and triggers daily breakout traders into the market). Over the next 15 to 45 minutes (sometimes longer), price should start to break down i.e. market structure may chage from long to short (unless it was a breakout, which is a different trade). If there is a change in market structure, traders are trapped, and I can anticipate market-makers will quickly take price towards the stops of the trapped traders.

In order to enter the trade there should be a clear indication that the (short-term) trend has reversed. and M or W formation at the high or low and a large body 'engulfing' candle give an indication that the move is ready. Often there will be an initial and sudden price move, which then reveres back to the previous swing (stopping out the first entries). On FX pairs, this first move (break in market structure), can be seen on the M15 or M5 chart, while on more volatile markets (Gold, Oil, various Indices), the M5 or even M1 may have to be enough (the move may mostly be over if waiting for M15 confirmation).

As you can see - there is a lot to consider in live time.

If everything aligns, enter after the engulfing candle either on the M1 or M5. I do use a stop loss, and place this either below (above) the recent swing low/high, or below the engulfing candle. Typically this will be somewhere between 5 adn 10 pips on most pairs, and up to 15 or so on more volatile pairs and gold. For an exit I'm aiming for the place where I think breakout traders have their stops placed. At a minimum, I'm looking for 20 pips away, but on more volatile pairs 45-50. At certain times e.g. the mid-week reversal, following 3 days / 3 pushes, there is the potential to get an entry on a 100-300 pip move.

HGI
I'm hoping HGI can help with entry, adding-in to positions and exits. I ran it on 28 pairs, plus gold today and it supported most potential entries in terms of levels and timings, both in London and NY. Not all, and that is to be expected, but the ones that looked "well-engineered" seemed to do well.

For this trial, I am using HGI on the M1 chart. This is possibly anathema to many folks used to working with HGI, but the purpose of this thread is to test it out. I jump from M15 to M5 and M1 (and back) quite a lot and so the signals refresh. This is absolutely fine, if I enter a trade because my entry criteria are met but then the HGI arrow disappears a few bars later, I will evaluate the trade on any new information. I may move my stops up to the most recent fractal, or the closet round number, or close the trade.
Author:  TableTop [ Mon Jul 10, 2023 6:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
An example traded live today.

Gold M15 NY open.
Screenshot from 2023-07-10 14-37-06.png
There was a high on Gold during the NY open on Friday. This breaks down with 3 pushes. The green area shows the Asian session with a low and consolidation, then another push and low into the London open, and a further push into the NY open. This 3rd push-down is also 3 M15 bear candles and takes price down to a round number (25), which is also the start of the initial pump-up of price in Friday's NY session (follow the line across to the left).

This meets my setup criteria - at this point, I'm not too bothered by what HGI is telling me (though I was anticipating a 3rd push and the big trend arrow down, did appear quite early and so there was the potential to trade the dump and the pump).
Screenshot from 2023-07-10 14-36-22.png
On the M1 chart (just off the bottom of the screenshot - sorry - I will do better in future), HGI produced a couple of blue waves, it also put a continuation arrow up (which I managed to capture on the screenshot).

Hopefully, you will also see that other entry criteria are met, there is a W, price is at an 'area of interest' (in this case a swing low from Friday and just shy of the 25 level, and this all happened at around 1400 (UK), 30 minutes before the equity markets open in NY. The W pattern is engulfed by the large bull candle which happens at 1400 on the nose, it also engulfs a 20EMA helps to confirm that the market is changing direction. I could have entered at the close of the 1400 bar but the longish wick gave me a moment to pause, and there was a pullback, at 1403 the 20 EMA is again engulfed AND HGI signals are supporting the move. I used the fractal point (red dot) as my stop loss which was ~18 pips. My target was the 00 round number, but momentum carried price straight through. A few candles later HGI stuck up a yellow wave and I moved my stop to the previous fractal (the HGI yellow wave signal disappeared when I changed screens but that is the point of HGI - it operates in live time).

This trade gave a R:R of 1:3.5 and was done in less than 30 minutes. I did take another entry after (with the big green arrow) for another ~40 pips, again with a tight SL.
Author:  TableTop [ Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
Gold trade 1st hour of the London Window

This morning Gold presented as a potential breakout candidate.
Screenshot from 2023-07-11 07-47-32.png
The market took out Friday's NY session lows on Monday. The Asian session starts to move price up, so my thesis is that we will see 3 pushes up and take out the high stops from Friday's NY session. When I get to the screen price has broken out and retested the Asian open, so the thesis is still valid and I dropped down to the M1 to see if an entry is set up.
Screenshot from 2023-07-11 07-17-05.png
On the M1 we can see the breakout and retest. HGI is also giving a clear trend signal. I wait for a pull back and enter at around the 00 level, with an 8 pip SL and a 50 pip TP (round number and current high where short traders may have stops).

Just over 30 minutes later there is a stop hunt to take out short traders and the my TP is hit. Gold will often give a 50 pip stop hunt, and sometimes extend that by a further 25 so I could have manually closed this higher.
Author:  TableTop [ Tue Jul 11, 2023 7:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
USDJPY - From Yesterday (Monday 10th July 2023)

I didn't take the trade but wanted to share a FX example, showing how HGI helped at the critical moment i.e. entering a trade in live time.
Screenshot from 2023-07-11 07-34-43.png
Even though this approach uses M1 entries, the setups can take days to prepare. The chart above shows UJ in a 100-pip box for 8-9 days. Price is ranging from 00 to 00, building up positions for a move, but we don't know if this is going higher or lower. Market structure is non-existent until the end of last week and we start to see lower lows and lower highs, and Friday saw a big breakdown of the market.
Screenshot from 2023-07-11 08-08-05.png
So on Monday morning, I'm looking for an opportunity to sell high. I get to the screen around 0600 (UK) and start checking charts, so will see this setup with between 2 and 4 bars to go before the orange (London Open) box. At this point, I can see:
  • 3 clear pushes out of the overnight consolidation,
  • a break in market structure,
  • long traders from the consolidation breakout beginning to become trapped
Screenshot from 2023-07-11 08-11-40.png
At 0700, the market is breaking down, and traders are trapped. I'm expecting price to drop back towards the stops of traders going long in the Asian open. BUT, @ 0700 I am also thinking that this may just be a retest of the Asian range, and that the market has picked off enough longs (maybe they moved their stops to a recent swing low to lock in a profit or breakeven). HGI was still giving all bear signals, so entries could be made on pullbacks or RAD's. The round number level (which was close to the low of the Asian Open) as a good target (which was hit after about an hour or so). REMEMBER WITH HGI the signals are only useful in LIVE TIME. There were a couple of times that it threw up a yellow wave indicating price may be entering a range - had I been trading this pair I would have either moved my Stop Loss, or just been prepared to close out if I had other confirmations.
Author:  TableTop [ Thu Jul 13, 2023 1:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
Gold - keeping out of trouble

I've been away for a couple of days. Looking at the charts for the NY open I have developed a thesis that Gold is likely to short (several days of breakout longs in the market and so we may see some profit-taking). There is major news at 1330 (UK) consisting of 3 individual US releases, and this can move the market, so I will always wait until after the news, or get out before the news, if I am in the market.

At 1330 - the gold spikes up and down taking any stops 50 pips on either side of the price when news hit. At this point, I am looking for 3 pushes back up, some kind of M structure, followed by an engulfing candle, for a short entry.
Gold M1 13 July 1423.png
I saw the setup form (and hit the 00), so was ready to short. I marked this on the chart with a red arrow and "Entry here". I didn't take the entry (because of testing HGI with this strategy), and 2 bars later I got a big green trend arrow and a candle which would have taken out my stop. With hindsight, my timing was off, as the NY equity open was due soon, (but there are plenty of times when price moves before the equity open and I've been left chasing the move.)
Author:  TableTop [ Thu Jul 13, 2023 2:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
Dealing with a slow intraday market - Gold

Following on from the previous post I saw a decent pump and M formation starting to form...
Gold M1 - possible high forming.png
What's of interest? The post-news high is tapped, from fairly low in the current range, and an M formation could be forming (2 tops but the leg down is not engulfing the rest of the M).
Gold M1 entry.png
The M pattern is engulfed and a couple of bars later I get a high yellow wave, which I used for entry confirmation, before I could take the screenshot a blue wave has also formed.
Gold - Red Trend arrow confirmation.png
Price drops, then moves sideways and a few bats later I get the red trend arrow as further confirmation.
Gold - no market momentum.png
I had thought the red trend arrow may signal the start of a high-velocity sell-off, but the market stayed in consolidation. I am searching for setups where the market has trapped traders high or low and is about to move the market very quickly to where they have placed their stops (or a move that is uncomfortably fast, meaning traders close or hedge positions). If this is not happening I trail a stop at the high (low) of the 3 most recent short-term (1bar) fractals.
Gold trade review.png
With my current method, I got stopped out at about 50% of my initial entry (i.e. a loss of 50% of my initial risk). I am still getting used to HGI signals on intraday, but a better option (in this case) would have been to move my SL to break even, once the yellow wave appeared.

A small loss but I won't be making any other trades today.
Author:  TableTop [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 10:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
Gold in the London Open
Gold M15 - what to look for.png
If you look over enough charts you will start to see repeating, weekly patterns. The M15 chart above is for gold, this week up to around 0700 (UK) this morning. My read of the chart is as follows:
  • Monday's high and low give the Opening Range. This can give support and/or resistance and depending on the way trades are set up can be a good profit target. So I like to see how the auctioning process reacts to the Opening Range. In this case, it's clear that Gold is breaking out, giving new highs.
  • Tuesday expands the range (trending market), giving the first push. We now have an Initial Balance for the week. The Initial Balance low was set on Monday and the Initial Balance high on Tuesday. It is likely (I've read quotes of 80% of the time) that one of these 2 (initial balance low and high) will hold for the rest of the week. (I took a long on Tuesday viewtopic.php?p=175802#p175802, at the breakout and retest of Tuesday's Asian Range and Monday's high, with the thesis that Tuesday was expanding the range).
  • Wednesday will often give a mid-week reversal (a high of week or day reversal), and it may have been possible to take a short in the London open (I was away so didn't look at this. But the main event on Wednesday was a breakout, giving the 2nd push out of the Opening Range.
  • Thursday is another day of longs and was a day of consolidation or churn in the market. This tends to happen after the 3rd push. I have no idea what is going on but it appears that large market participants are hitting stops up and down, to churn the market. Maybe to take a profit before taking the market down, or maybe picking up more longs to take the market higher.
  • Friday, the weekly highs are tapped in the Asian Open and there was a pullback to the session low (taking stops). I'm anticipating a short opportunity in the London Open after a breakout of the Asian low and a retest. If the setup presents, price should auction down to Thursday's low, and potentially continue to the ADR line (stops from entries after the news on Wednesday), or even down to the Initial Balance high (breakout traders stops). I think this is unlikely in the London Open so will focus on the LOPD and 00 levels for targets.
    Gold M1 - initial entry.png
    Coming into the LO, we have a market that is trending down (on M1), and then a 3-push pattern back into the Asian Open. There is an M pattern which gets locked with an engulfing candle. At this point, HGI is still no indication to short, and a few candles later I get a blue wave and enter market shorts (by the time I took a screenshot there were many more HGI short signals).
    Gold M1 exit.png
    Price continues to fall but stalls and goes sideways. Once I get yellow waves I move the stops to BE and after a few more minutes of sideways movement decide to take profit for just over 1:1 RR. I'm searching for 5R+ opportunities but happy to take a profit when I think the market is going to go against me.

    Not long after price did indeed hit my initial target so I still have some work to do on improving my exits.
Author:  TableTop [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 10:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
USDCAD M15 and M5

Looking through the FX pairs this morning, USDCAD stood out as a potential candidate.
UC M15 setup.png
The week is setting up the same as Gold (above) but with shorts in the market. We see 3 days pushing the market out of the opening range. We are also at the low of the month (yellow line) and coming into London it appears that the breakout of the monthly low is failing. We get a pullback into the London Open and HGI signals are long on M15, M5 and M1.

This was the explosive move that I was looking for but rather than take the 25 pips (SL was 5 pips so a 5R opportunity), I wanted to see what HGI gave on the M5. I exited when a yellow wave appeared on the M5 (around 2.5R).
UC M5 exit.png
Author:  TableTop [ Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
Final trades of the week

I'm looking for a big move in the NY session. Due to the timing of major news (1500 UK), there is a possibility of the move going early. If nothing sets up then wait for the news before any entry and allow some time (15-45 minutes) to allow the market to settle into a pattern.
Gold M1 pre-news trade.png
There is an area of consolidation coming out of the London Open (LO), the orange area. All of the price action under the red line is consolidation. Heading in to the NY Open (NYO), we get the 1st break out of consolidation, followed by a 2nd into NYO (1300 UK) and the 3rd gives a double top, followed by 3 M1 candles down which engulfs the M formation (double top). The 20 EMA is also engulfed and so I would normally look to enter, with a market order, if the price breaks below that candle, with a stop placed above the previous candle (it can pay to be aggressive on Gold) OR the recent swing. I waited for the first HGI signal to appear (and did not wait for the candle to form). I closed the position when I had a yellow and then blue wave for longs, and re-entered when the signals reversed, placing a second entry on a RAD. I closed out positions when price went sideways and HGI started to give conflicting signals. These 3 trades gave a little over 2R but I cannot shake the feeling that, in this case, the entry and exit criteria were clearer WITHOUT HGI than with (based on similar trades, I think this was a 5R opportunity).

Following the news I was anticipating price to pull back before continuing down towards the Initial Balance (there were no signs of a breakout of the high of the week).
Gold M1 post news trade.png
However, at the point where I was looking for confirmation from HGI, I got a blue wave long trend, soon followed by a Green Trend arrow. My thesis changed, the market had taken the stops of long traders and there was potential to go back and take out stops of short traders from above the news candles. This time I used the high of the RAD candle as an entry with a stop at the low of the candle, and exited just below 00, when a yellow wave formed momentarily, for about 2.25R.

Thoughts on HGI intraday
I'm not loving it! But it can be helpful and has proven to be helpful in several of my tests. The 2 examples in this post show HGI being both helpful and a hindrance. I do think I would have gotten in earlier and completed the 50-pip trade this afternoon without HGI, but I may have missed the second trade. However, I probably would not have attempted a 2nd trade if I'd had a very successful initial trade.
Author:  SteveHopwood [ Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Intraday with HGI
I think that this deserves more interest than it is getting, so I am giving it a bump in my wrup tonight.

:xm: :rocket:
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