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Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?
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Author:  4xPIPAHOLIC [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Hello Everyone!


Let me introduce myself......I am Pipaholic....my real name is Dimitri....
I have been trading for 20 years now professionally.....I have traded initially for some prop shops after I moved over to banks.....and now I am trading for no one else but myself.
All this time I wanted to go ahead to do this experiment cause I think it could work quit good if "WE" find the right money management rules.
From my experience I believe that the most important part of a successful system is the money management you apply to it.......so I am going ahead with this journal and we will see "how" important it is.....It is an experiment like I said.

What really made me go ahead and open this thread was that last week one of my PRO buddies lost $100.000 on a NZDUSD trade(don't worry ,the guy has millions)......that me and my other PRO trader freind thought he was crazy and we both agreed that he gambled on this trade......yes like heads and tails type of gamble....so this idea that I had for a long time in my head I said to myself it is time I test it just for the fun of it.....

I am doing this just so for the fun of it so we can see how far we can go....so please all "ROCKET SCIENTISTS" that don't like it can move on to the next super system...

(Of course this is not to take these signals for live trading and if you do and lose your money it is your total idiotic fault, I take no responsibility)

SO HERE WE GO

I am going to use a Daily charts and I will trade 2 pairs the EUR/USD and the EUR/GBP. Now I know that some of you may say that these 2 pairs are somewhat correlated but "part" of trading is luck so we might get a long signal on one and a short on the other....this way they will be also hedged in a way...with a 50/50 chance so it all will come down to the volatility and MM.

To select the direction I am going to use an app I have on my android phone that spins head and tails, of course I would use an actual coin if I did not have that (but I like the coin flipping effect) :D
The chances here are 50/50 so it all will come down to money management.

For my MM I will use the ATR and an EA called Update stops. I am going to set the ATR at 14 and take that value as my SL and my first TP......

I will set up the UPDATE STOPS EA like this:

EUR/USD ATR reads 79 (right mow)

TakeProfit 1 : 79
TakeProfit 2 : 158 (double first TP)
TakeProfit 3 : 237 (3 times first TP)
TakeProfit 1 percent : 40
TakeProfit 2 percent : 30
TakeProfit 3 percent :100 (cause I want the full position to close)
HardStop : 79 (Same as 1st TP)
MoveStop: 79(So when it gets to 79 pips moves SL to BE to cap our risk)

If we are stopped out......we flip again and take a new position.....with the new ATR reading.

So lets go......I am going to start a fresh Empty4 and post the 1st trades....

Pipaholic
Author:  4xPIPAHOLIC [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Ok here are the first trades, both SELLS.....

I used one of my Empty4's from VertiFX that I already had cause I have so many and do not want to download another.

The balance on it is $74537.36(I will post a screen shot of the balance later).

Here they are:
Author:  alex_forex [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

I follow you, great experience to have ;)

Do you share UpdateStops EA ?

Regards
Alex
Author:  4xPIPAHOLIC [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Of course alex_forex.....here it is......

it might not be working ok with jpy pairs cause I problems with it in the past with these pairs on this EA.....on all the other pairs it works A-1......
Author:  alex_forex [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 4:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Thanks a lot Pipa ;)

I'll be able to experiment on myself :twisted:

Regards
Alex
Author:  garyfritz [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 5:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Have fun with your experiment! I don't expect you'll make any fortunes, though...

I've tested random-entry systems in Tradestation. With 1:1 R:R, the win% tends to be right around 50%. With larger SL and smaller TP the win% is correspondingly higher, and with smaller SL and larger TP the win% is lower. It tends to work out to just about breakeven, before costs -- which is what you'd expect from a coin flip!
Author:  4xPIPAHOLIC [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Thanks garyfritz for your feedback........lets see how we can tune it for better results as we go.......I am going to let it run a little and after I will start tuning the MM...... ;)
Author:  4xPIPAHOLIC [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Ok......EUR/USD got stopped out with a loss of -790.00.....did not think it would make it with that big bullish candle.......but then again I am not here to think of the entries .....only the MM.

The EUR/GBP pair is still alive......

and here is the pic with the balance as promised........
Author:  4xPIPAHOLIC [ Wed Aug 22, 2012 10:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

Now we have to re-enter on the EUR/USD.......

Just flipped........it was heads.....so we go long on EUR/USD.....
Author:  4xPIPAHOLIC [ Thu Aug 23, 2012 11:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Heads and Tails "Experiment" will it work...?

OK.....lets see....E/G got stopped out....with a loss of -635.08

E/U is positive +319.00..........

Now I have to flip for the new position of E/G .......

it is .....HEADS.....so we go LONG EUR/GBP.....
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