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Mike [ Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:55 pm ]

Post subject:

Re: Mike's First: an other look at TMA-Slope

garyfritz wrote:...Unfortunately if the market KEEPS trending up, the slope eventually tops out and begins to fall. So even though the market is still moving up, the slope direction changes and provides a false trigger.

How to distinguish the two?

Slope basically measures the amount / speed the market has moved recently. If it's been rising, the slope is strongly positive. As soon as the market turns, the slope is still positive but starts to go down. But even if the market is still moving up (say slope is 1.0), if the market move slowed so the slope dropped from 1.2 to 1.0, that's still a change in slope direction. The slope indicator has "saturated" so slope direction is no longer a reliable indicator.

Maybe your combination of D1/H4/H1 slope will extract "bites" from the market move that go predictably in your direction. I'll be interested to hear how you do.

I've been toying with an idea for a slope-like indicator that doesn't saturate. I'll let you know if I come up with anything useful.

Garyfritz, thanks for reading and answering - unfortunately I have quite a heavy workload as a physician and do my trading at strange hours and without the discipline it would need. Actually the only way I make money is by having the beast do its work on some selected pairs and small lotsize. My manual trades mess up the beast's quite nice results. So I follow the forums and strategies and think about learning to code, the day I quit work.
By visually checking my suggestion of synchronicity I convince myself it would work, but as I say, I lack the time and discipline to check.
After some sugestions by bunker and other reads I immagine that some kind of ea does already exist that triggers on the synchronicity of macd, which shows almost the same curve as the slope. The fact that macd is not normalized does not bother as long as we read only the direction(-change) of the indicators.
slope day (0) - slope day (-1) ~ macd day (0) - macd day (-1)
slope H4 (0) - slope H4 (-1) ~ macd H4 (0) - macd H4 (-1)
slope H1 (0) - slope H1 (-1) ~ macd H4 (0) - macd H1 (-1)
This assumption holds quite well if we set the parameters acordingly.
Miner does it with stoch, bunker with two timeframes of macd and I thought of 3 timeframes of the slope.
I will try to find an example where one of the slope indicators has "saturated" (so slope direction is no longer a reliable indicator) AND my trigger of slope synchronicity would fire. I will publish it on this forum. If you find one, please do so as well.
Thanks Mike

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Author:	garyfritz [ Fri Oct 05, 2012 4:56 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Mike's First: an other look at TMA-Slope
Just saw your post, Mike. Have you done any testing on this yet? Slope direction sometimes works fabulously. Other times it doesn't work at all. My puzzle on the whole thing has been figuring out how to know when to trust it. When the market has trended up and then reverses to a down trend, the slope direction changes almost instantly. It's a fabulous trigger. Unfortunately if the market KEEPS trending up, the slope eventually tops out and begins to fall. So even though the market is still moving up, the slope direction changes and provides a false trigger. How to distinguish the two? Slope basically measures the amount / speed the market has moved recently. If it's been rising, the slope is strongly positive. As soon as the market turns, the slope is still positive but starts to go down. But even if the market is still moving up (say slope is 1.0), if the market move slowed so the slope dropped from 1.2 to 1.0, that's still a change in slope direction. The slope indicator has "saturated" so slope direction is no longer a reliable indicator. Maybe your combination of D1/H4/H1 slope will extract "bites" from the market move that go predictably in your direction. I'll be interested to hear how you do. I've been toying with an idea for a slope-like indicator that doesn't saturate. I'll let you know if I come up with anything useful.

Author:	coolncalm [ Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Mike's First: an other look at TMA-Slope
Hi Mike, Just my 2 cents - I find that the slope indicates price direction but not the way most people expect it to. Primarily, the slope indicates price momentum either by divergng from 0 (when the speed of price movement is strengthening) or converging towards 0 (when the speed of price movement is weakening). The slope also indicates upwards price movement when it is above 0 (+ve), and downwards price movement when the slope is below 0 (-ve). Some people assume price is moving upwards when the slope is heading upwards; while this is true if the slope is above 0, price may still head upwards (but as a slower pace) even as the slope begins to turn downwards and weaken towards 0. If the above logic is applied to your first BUY criteria - {MA Slope H4 (0) – MA Slope H4 (-1)} >0.04 - you may find the ea taking a long trade as a slope that is below 0 heads upwards, creating a value difference of >0.04. I am not sure that you wish to buy a pair that is moving downwards at a slower pace (its pace can pick up)! I hope it helps. Cheers, CC

Author:	Mike [ Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:20 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Mike's First: an other look at TMA-Slope
garyfritz wrote:Just saw your post, Mike. ... When the market has trended up and then reverses to a down trend, the slope direction changes almost instantly. It's a fabulous trigger. Unfortunately if the market KEEPS trending up, the slope eventually tops out and begins to fall. So even though the market is still moving up, the slope direction changes and provides a false trigger. How to distinguish the two? Slope basically measures the amount / speed the market has moved recently. If it's been rising, the slope is strongly positive. As soon as the market turns, the slope is still positive but starts to go down. But even if the market is still moving up (say slope is 1.0), if the market move slowed so the slope dropped from 1.2 to 1.0, that's still a change in slope direction. The slope indicator has "saturated" so slope direction is no longer a reliable indicator. Maybe your combination of D1/H4/H1 slope will extract "bites" from the market move that go predictably in your direction. I'll be interested to hear how you do. Garyfritz, I have reread your post and checked for charts with longlasting trends. Yes TMA Slope saturates, but stays above 0.4, so if you have the nerves, you stay in. On the other hand you made so many pips, you can leave abytime you feel unconfortable. You say "The slope indicator has "saturated" so slope direction is no longer a reliable indicator" a) for entry: too late b) for confirmation: not useful c) as exit signal: not useful. I think synchronicity of 3 TMA-SlopeTFs is still valid for entries, the exit strategy has to consider other indicators than TMI-Slope, but I am focusing on Entry now. Taking the trade at the start of the trend Aug 21st you would have had a nice run. (See attachement.) Thanks for your feedback, Mike

Author:	Mike [ Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:33 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Mike's First: an other look at TMA-Slope
coolncalm wrote:Hi Mike, Just my 2 cents - I find that the slope indicates price direction but not the way most people expect it to. Primarily, the slope indicates price momentum either by divergng from 0 (when the speed of price movement is strengthening) or converging towards 0 (when the speed of price movement is weakening). The slope also indicates upwards price movement when it is above 0 (+ve), and downwards price movement when the slope is below 0 (-ve). Some people assume price is moving upwards when the slope is heading upwards; while this is true if the slope is above 0, price may still head upwards (but as a slower pace) even as the slope begins to turn downwards and weaken towards 0. If the above logic is applied to your first BUY criteria - {MA Slope H4 (0) – MA Slope H4 (-1)} >0.04 - you may find the ea taking a long trade as a slope that is below 0 heads upwards, creating a value difference of >0.04. I am not sure that you wish to buy a pair that is moving downwards at a slower pace (its pace can pick up)! I hope it helps. Cheers, CC Hi coolncalm Thanks, what you say is particularly true for higher TFs. On the attached H4 chart you see, that H1 TMA-Slope starts so to say on the wrong side to cross 0 and reach top values while you have rallies or vice-versa down thrusts. The core of my trigger is synchronicity and I still think its valid (see attachement). I just do not know, where to go from here. Thanks for your feedback, Mike PS do not get irritated by the NB-Meter_Signals of some past NB-Straregy.

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