The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:33 am

Cut my losses earlier on: EURAUD, AUDCHF, GBPNZD, GBPAUD

Let's see if CADCHF and USDSGD can't pay for them all...

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:38 am

New trade made earlier today:

USDCAD D1: bearish out of trap

20141029_usdcad_d1_tv_bearish_in_play.png

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dudest · Post by **dudest** » Wed Oct 29, 2014 11:52 am

dudest » Tue Oct 28, 2014 11:02 pm wrote:The pin at 61.8 ( and beginnings of an evening star ) look too good to pass up

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20141029_nzdusd_h1_maybe_M_forming_after_H4_pin.png

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Post by **pips400** » Wed Oct 29, 2014 3:20 pm

Here's the EURCAD H1 and H4

EURCAD H1 29 Oct 14.PNG

EURCAD H4 29 Oct 14.PNG

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:04 pm

I blame myself totally for not being in any of the NZD moves this evening...

Though I wasn't at my PC at the time (all the nice pins before reversal), I'd lost the patience game and not borne in mind that 61.8 and 73.6 are where it always happens!!

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20141028_eurnzd_h4_at_L1_base_+_pin.png

20141029_eurnzd_h4_outcome.png

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20141028_nzdusd_h4_pin_61.8_short.png

20141029_nzdusd_h4_outcome.png

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dudest · Post by **dudest** » Wed Oct 29, 2014 9:21 pm

And, to be fair, I totally pat myself on the back for these!

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20141024_usdnok_h4_rising_wedge_buy.png

20141028_usdnok_h4_outcome.png

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20141024_cadchf_h4_longs_watching.png

20141029_cadchf_h4_outcome.png

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ash.invest · Post by **ash.invest** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:12 am

Folks,

I am new to CJ's thread and just starting with Naked Trading today. I am having a hard time spotting quality setups, so will really appreciate if you could help me get started.

1. Could you post a couple of quality setups for today that you are looking at ? I would love to analyze the same setup and see if I see the same things.

2. With the FOMC announcement today, EURUSD had a big drop - it was still in the overall trend. Attached is my analysis.

a. EURUSD Monthly: is in a Downtrend: should fall to: 1.2045

EURUSD-Monthly.png

b. Daily: W is forming, but still has a way to go before 3rd leg of W is complete

EURUSD-Daily.png

c. H4: Waiting for the drop, are there any trades here ?

EURUSD-H4.png

My question is. Is anyone trading EURUSD for today ? Are their any trades today ? On the H4 I think it should fall further to allow it to complete leg3 of W and then go long.

A possible trade is to go short and capture the move from now to the leg3 completion. It being the Asian Session, I dont know if this is a valid trade.

a. Would you wait and then go long ?
b. Would you short now and cover when leg3 completes ?

Appreciate any feedback.

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 8:51 am

XAUUSD M15 watchlist:

20141030_xauusd_m15_watchlist_for_W.png

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dudest · Post by **dudest** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:07 am

AUDCAD D1

I think this one has a good chance of breaking out of TV upwards

20141030_audcad_d1_tv_in_progress.png

20141030_audcad_d1_tv_in_progress_levels.png

20141030_audcad_d1_tv_in_progress_levels_w1.png

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Post by **pips400** » Thu Oct 30, 2014 9:11 am

ash.invest » Thu Oct 30, 2014 12:12 am wrote:Folks,

I am new to CJ's thread and just starting with Naked Trading today. I am having a hard time spotting quality setups, so will really appreciate if you could help me get started.

1. Could you post a couple of quality setups for today that you are looking at ? I would love to analyze the same setup and see if I see the same things.

2. With the FOMC announcement today, EURUSD had a big drop - it was still in the overall trend. Attached is my analysis.

a. EURUSD Monthly: is in a Downtrend: should fall to: 1.2045

b. Daily: W is forming, but still has a way to go before 3rd leg of W is complete

c. H4: Waiting for the drop, are there any trades here ?

My question is. Is anyone trading EURUSD for today ? Are their any trades today ? On the H4 I think it should fall further to allow it to complete leg3 of W and then go long.

A possible trade is to go short and capture the move from now to the leg3 completion. It being the Asian Session, I dont know if this is a valid trade.

a. Would you wait and then go long ?
b. Would you short now and cover when leg3 completes ?

Appreciate any feedback.

Hi Ash welcome to the thread. Spotting quality setups is something that takes a long time to get a handle on, as price can get thrashed around so much it can hide what's really going on, but nevertheless there are still rules/principles which undergird the whole battle between bulls and bears you see being fought out before you on the screen. It's one thing to look with hindsight and spot the moves a totally different experience when trading the "hard right edge" of the screen. The key components are supply and demand, impulse and corrections, price extensions and retracements, for that I like to use Fibonacci, OBV, ATR and a whole dictionary of price formations.

More specifically your observations on the EU are similar to my own, in that there is a classic W being forming on the HTF. I would expect price to retest the previous support, and what will matter at this stage is where supply and demand are, ie. I'd be looking for divergence on the OBV, and also price action/candles/ etc around that level to gauge what will happen next. In fact I see reversal formations setting up on all the USD pairs, the patterns are different but they are there.

How to actually trade the setups is down to personal preference. There is no "right way", and the analysis is only 50%, the analysis may be good but the trade still goes against you, that's trading, so it's a matter of probabilities over multiple trades which is where your money management comes in. So to consider a short to the support line, you'd have to ask what's the risk/reward for such a trade, and base your decision from there.

All the best

Pips400