The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[websie]

Just making it easier for you guys

Had those same GU H1 and H4 levels, good to confirm, thanks Sympathy!

Hey occam, i have watched all your posted charts, the levels are great ok. pls try and teach others when you have time.

Thanks Sympathy. Unfortunately I've found if I post while I'm trading then I often lose concentration distracted and miss trades so I've had to leave posting to when I've finished trading for the day. Seems I can't multi task! But I'll definitely help others when I can!

Talking of the UCAD...entry was a little late, could have entered a bit higher in the pin on second leg of M, but didn't see it until a few minutes later...

level3 will complete tommorro or next so am gona make thousands taking it back up

with the recent movement after oil and the fomc, does that mean that now price has retraced to the 2nd level that we count that as the 2 level again?

Also thank you for the helpful comments on my post on NU

[Captain Jack]

Good to see a few more enlightened traders doing well here....as should be cause things have not changed one bit....

One question....why do so few of you ONLY look at one time frame when the present has already been foretold in the past?

Your job is to determine which H4 map is correct

2015-07-29_18-41-43.jpg

2015-07-29_18-27-01.jpg

2015-07-29_18-28-14.jpg

-CJ-

[Occam]

Hi Occam & Sympathy,

I am trying to do pushes & levels count in GBPNZD. Do you guys also see M formation going to level 3? I am basing from H1 timeframe, because in M15 is difficult to see the levels.

Chris

Hey Christian

I see Sympathy has already answered on this. If it makes you feel any better I had the same count as you. I was struggling with the GN level counts as well. I also don't trade GN much as it moves too much for my liking compared to other pairs (the ADR does my head in!). Here's my chart as I had it before seeing Sympathy's chart, with a few comments on it.

I was thrown out by the quick move down in the green circle which I treated as a count reset (after the previous level 3 short was made) and treated the new low as my new level 1. Also because the old L3 and new L1 were in a similar spot I was also suspicious it was now ranging (but still looking for shorts as we had made a H4 level 1).

So I then had the latest low as level 2. But what I also missed was the 3 level drop over the last 3 days (dotted blue levels) which would have indicated my Level 1 as not correct. 3 levels over 3 days is the normal thing to look for. I had treated them as pushes not levels and getting my H1 and H4 counts mixed up. Cheers

[Edit: amended comment on chart regarding green circle]

[Occam]

with the recent movement after oil and the fomc, does that mean that now price has retraced to the 2nd level that we count that as the 2 level again?

Also thank you for the helpful comments on my post on NU

Hey websie

The retrace back to level 2 on GU I will also treat as a level 1 short for the time being (and remembering that we are at H4 1 long) while expecting some consolidation/ranging. Also note the H1 RRT at the top of the range today. A great setup given its location on H1 and H4 and strong move to top of range to scare traders away.

[Tomsic]

I've been pretty hit or miss with pattern maps in the past, hence gave up on them.
However, Piters recent posts made me curious again.. I'm still not sure how well they have to match, or if they have anything to do with Ms/Ws, pushes, stop hunts and/or cycles?

Anyway, just throwing this one out here.. looking for an AUDCAD H1 level 2 drop as forecast by the 15m chart at the start of July.

I'm not trading it.. heck, I'll probably be sleeping when/if it happens.. so mainly just posting for feedback and to check back later to see how it ended up playing out:



Appreciate any comments (preferably before the benefit of hindsight lol - though i do realize that request is on rather short notice, so definitely not required) as to if it looks like I have the right idea, or if there's a completely different way to be going about it?

cheers!

just realized this map went in the forecasted direction, but took the slow and bumpy road

AUDCADH1 aftermath.png

also not sure if the pattern map was correct or just a coincidence it ended up going down.. I mean, 50-50 chance that could have happened, right?

I see some similarities in the GN charts CJ posted too.. just wish someone could spell it out a bit clearer.. still too much ambiguity for me.. patterns repeat.. what patterns? how well must they match? stop hunt patterns? head and shoulder patterns? random price movements? all of the above?

[ChristianK]

Thank you everyone for commenting and giving me lessons.
I will try to work more comparing the present chart with the past, since this is one of many things that i still missed out.

Chris

[hannele]

Good to see a few more enlightened traders doing well here....as should be cause things have not changed one bit....

One question....why do so few of you ONLY look at one time frame when the present has already been foretold in the past?

Your job is to determine which H4 map is correct







-CJ-

Well I pick both but I have never mastered this look back thing... top one would be my go thou, up and away.
Good to see you back, would be nice to have you here more often plenty to learn from you
cheers
hannele

[Occam]

Good to see a few more enlightened traders doing well here....as should be cause things have not changed one bit....

One question....why do so few of you ONLY look at one time frame when the present has already been foretold in the past? Your job is to determine which H4 map is correct. -CJ-

just realized this map went in the forecasted direction, but took the slow and bumpy road



also not sure if the pattern map was correct or just a coincidence it ended up going down.. I mean, 50-50 chance that could have happened, right?

I see some similarities in the GN charts CJ posted too.. just wish someone could spell it out a bit clearer.. still too much ambiguity for me.. patterns repeat.. what patterns? how well must they match? stop hunt patterns? head and shoulder patterns? random price movements? all of the above?

Thanks for the charts CJ, good to see you in the house and still keeping an eye on things!

Like you Tomsic I must admit I haven't been much good as yet at identifying the right maps. And then I often end up with a bit of analysis paralysis (is this the right/wrong map, mmm it doesn't quite match my levels etc?) and end up over thinking things. Hopefully it comes more clearer with time. Not sure if your ACAD map was the right one or not, as you said, it did move in the suggested direction but with a rather different shape.

[websie]

with the recent movement after oil and the fomc, does that mean that now price has retraced to the 2nd level that we count that as the 2 level again?

Also thank you for the helpful comments on my post on NU

Hey websie

The retrace back to level 2 on GU I will also treat as a level 1 short for the time being (and remembering that we are at H4 1 long) while expecting some consolidation/ranging. Also note the H1 RRT at the top of the range today. A great setup given its location on H1 and H4 and strong move to top of range to scare traders away.

Hi Occam, thank you for the chart. I think I'm getting the levels much better now, thanks to you, Sympathy, Tomsic, Pieter and the others, my levels on GBPUSD are the same as yours. So here are my 3 charts. I know we don't really do trendlines but I quite like them so what I see is a big up channel on the day and a range on the h4/h1.

[websie]

Good to see a few more enlightened traders doing well here....as should be cause things have not changed one bit....

One question....why do so few of you ONLY look at one time frame when the present has already been foretold in the past? Your job is to determine which H4 map is correct. -CJ-

just realized this map went in the forecasted direction, but took the slow and bumpy road



also not sure if the pattern map was correct or just a coincidence it ended up going down.. I mean, 50-50 chance that could have happened, right?

I see some similarities in the GN charts CJ posted too.. just wish someone could spell it out a bit clearer.. still too much ambiguity for me.. patterns repeat.. what patterns? how well must they match? stop hunt patterns? head and shoulder patterns? random price movements? all of the above?

Thanks for the charts CJ, good to see you in the house and still keeping an eye on things!

Like you Tomsic I must admit I haven't been much good as yet at identifying the right maps. And then I often end up with a bit of analysis paralysis (is this the right/wrong map, mmm it doesn't quite match my levels etc?) and end up over thinking things. Hopefully it comes more clearer with time. Not sure if your ACAD map was the right one or not, as you said, it did move in the suggested direction but with a rather different shape.

Fantastic to see you in here CJ, I am like Occam, struggling to see those previous patterns but I am also way behind the others on seeing anything, have just started to see the levels jumping out at me and slowly I hope to be able to master this looking at the past stuff. I am a tortoise. Thank you so much for everything you put into this thread, nice to see you popping in.