Once a Month EA

[SteveHopwood]

I uploaded the wrong one to post 1. Redownload if you downloaded before the time stamp on this post.

[fxozgirl]

Steve, this looks pretty incredible...got a chance to load up a new GP demo and put the analysis indicator on all charts.

10 days looks impressive, but in just a quick play around on every single chart Day 7 was better - I didn't do the math's but probably an average of 10% better each chart, which adds up to a lot of pips across all charts.

I'll be attaching the EA tonight when I get home from work, but also (at this early stage at least) using mptm to manage the trades.

Still thinking through the trade management options though, will update with some more thoughts later.

Thanks for sharing this one...I have a feeling it will be very, very good!

Cheers
Shelley

[SteveHopwood]

Thanks Shelley.

V 1a is in post 1. I coded the data-gathering stuff on Friday whilst the markets were still open. I coded the trade sending and closing on Saturday and Sunday whilst they were closed.

I have just sent and closed a few baskets by manipulating the trading times inputs and this threw up a few bloops. If you want a real belly laugh, do the same with V1 and have a look at some of the take profits.

The order sending stuff takes a fair few seconds, then the adding a take profit to the trades takes a fair few more, so it is usually a minute or two before the whole basket of trades is in place.

Nothing happens quickly in Forex unless is is a trade plummeting to oblivion.

[nanningbob]

Nothing happens quickly in Forex unless is is a trade plummeting to oblivion.

I have always found it amazing that a losing trade can get to -100 in a matter of minutes or hours but a winning trade takes days to get to +100. Peter Principle I guess.

SCHOOLS OUT

[SteveHopwood]

Nothing happens quickly in Forex unless is is a trade plummeting to oblivion.

I have always found it amazing that a losing trade can get to -100 in a matter of minutes or hours but a winning trade takes days to get to +100. Peter Principle I guess.

SCHOOLS OUT

Hehe. Welcome to your retirement Bob.

I look forward to benefiting from it hugely.

[SteveHopwood]

I just spent half an hour or so playing with the simulator.

Load up the attached spread sheet. I ran simulations from trading day 5 to day 15, with TakeProfitMultiplierPercent set to 33%, then 50%. I started a run at 75% but cut it short when it became obvious when such a high tp was affecting profits.

Global prime demo account. As Shelley found, day 7 emerges as the optimal trading day, with a somewhat surprising 50% multiplier to calculate the take profit for each trade.

Day 15 comes as a surprise - have a look and you will see what I mean.

The second block of figures are day 7 and 15 with TakeProfitMultiplierPercent starting at 20% and rising by increments of 5% to 45%. Trading this way for the last year indicates that 50% remains best for day 5, whilst 35% is best for day 15.

That day 15 is really interesting. It suggests a good run towards the end of the month and presents a couple of possibilities:

• trades that have grunged around for 10 days might suddenly take off.
• there is a second trading opportunity towards the end of the trading month. Wouldn't that be a drool-increasing prospect.

We cannot know how realistic all this is until we see OAM in action on demo properly. Maybe I am barking at the wrong moon and we are all in for a disappointment, but surely, surely there must be some pips to be had out of all this?

We shall see.

[fxozgirl]

It will definitely be interesting to see this on demo, as you say Steve, surely we can harvest some pips out of this.

I've been doing a bit more research as well with the simulator...
Default is set to check back 24 months which is what my comments previously have been made on, but I thought I would check the last 12 months only as imo the market has been far more rangy. Well the average pip profit is down slightly but not as much as I thought. 282 pips per pair per month (24 mths) compared to 274 pips per pair per month (12 mths),

So I think I am going to run the following demo's:

1. Based on last 12 months analysis Trade Day 7 using TakeProfitMultiplierPercent at 50%
2. Based on last 12 months analysis Trade Day 7 and using Paul's MPBM set for 250 pips TP per pair (does anyone know if MPBM has been update to work on Empty4 6xx?)
3. Based on last 12 months analysis Trade Day 7 and using the average highest pips won & lowest pips won, I will set an individual TP for each pair.

Hopefully out of this we may see something meaningful!

Thanks Steve for your work on this one...even if it doesn't work the anticipation has been fun

[OldTrader]

I just spent half an hour or so playing with the simulator.

Load up the attached spread sheet. I ran simulations from trading day 5 to day 15, with TakeProfitMultiplierPercent set to 33%, then 50%. I started a run at 75% but cut it short when it became obvious when such a high tp was affecting profits.

Global prime demo account. As Shelley found, day 7 emerges as the optimal trading day, with a somewhat surprising 50% multiplier to calculate the take profit for each trade.

Day 15 comes as a surprise - have a look and you will see what I mean.

The second block of figures are day 7 and 15 with TakeProfitMultiplierPercent starting at 20% and rising by increments of 5% to 45%. Trading this way for the last year indicates that 50% remains best for day 5, whilst 35% is best for day 15.

That day 15 is really interesting. It suggests a good run towards the end of the month and presents a couple of possibilities:

• trades that have grunged around for 10 days might suddenly take off.
• there is a second trading opportunity towards the end of the trading month. Wouldn't that be a drool-increasing prospect.

We cannot know how realistic all this is until we see OAM in action on demo properly. Maybe I am barking at the wrong moon and we are all in for a disappointment, but surely, surely there must be some pips to be had out of all this?

We shall see.

Oh MY, the world must be coming to an end!!! Steve Hopwood is BACKTESTING lol

[OldTrader]

lol i do, and some of us have been doing that for many years. it's just funny to see Steve actually give it a look after his reactions about it all these years

[SteveHopwood]

Earlier today being 'trading day no 4' I ran the simulator and saw a just over 6000 pip profit for the default stuff, so I launched OAM to see what would happen.

4 trades have hit tp, so 19 remain outstanding. Closed profit pips are c. 230, whilst closing the remaining trades would leave a profit of about 170 pips.

Going to leave the trades to run and see what happens. I am just getting itchy feet before the 7th trading day.