Prediction of turning points based on ZZ on fractal calc....

[emonts]

Hi GG
"There is one thing about this "Fractal" based system that almost everyone, amazingly, fail to see.
It has nothing to do with math, statistics or algorithm. It's in plain sight on the chart - and if you can't see it - look closer and harder... "

I am looking closer and harder...nothing
These fractals are repainting (that does not bother me ) but I still don't get my head around how to look at them differently.. please advice if you could.
Here is a pic what I am looking at.....USDJPY 15min

cheers
hannele

hannele,

1. Fractals do not repaint. Fractals are defind by 2 preciding bar and 2 following bars. After the second following bar - they DO NOT repaint.

2. Fractals, in this concept of being part or "building blocks" of a "DNA", should be treated as such.
In this concept, they are an integral part of a DNA "chain".
If that "chain" is broken, we need to validate the Fractal.
Example:
If a Fractal appears on last bars of Friday session and its following legs (confirmation bars) appear on start of Monday session - that is NOT a valid Fractal. "Chain" is broken by the gap between Friday close and Monday Open. There is no continuation of sequence.
Same thing on start of Monday session. If you got a fractal on the firast bars, with its one or two leading legs on last Friday session - its NOT a valid fractal.
The above is true for any kind of "broken chain" occasions.

If you include those non-valid fractals in your database, you'll get non valid ZZ's and non valid bar counts, etc.

G.

This means also for the ZZ leg over the weekend the chain is broken. So this ZZ leg is also false???


BR

[gg53]

ZZ leg that relies on one or two non-valid fractals is false.
ZZ leg (even over weekends) is valid if it connects two valid fractals.

G.

[emonts]

ZZ leg that relies on one or two non-valid fractals is false.
ZZ leg (even over weekends) is valid if it connects two valid fractals.

G.

Thanks like Always

BR

[gg53]

Hi GG
"There is one thing about this "Fractal" based system that almost everyone, amazingly, fail to see.
It has nothing to do with math, statistics or algorithm. It's in plain sight on the chart - and if you can't see it - look closer and harder... "

I am looking closer and harder...nothing

hannele,

Ok, Ok....
Please open an M5 or M15 chart with candlestick or bar chart.
Put the Fractals indicator on it.
watch the Fractals marking on the Highs & Lows.

Hold on...
We, as traders, are concerned with bar CLOSE (which is next bar open) - since it's impossible to enter on exact High/Low, right?

Now, on the same chart with the same Fractal indicator on it - switch to LINE-CHART.

Oooops...
How many fractals are still "valid"?
How many fractals are pin-point accurate?

Do you see some more sense in the chaos?

...and what is all that have to do with 1.2610?

G.

[gg53]

Kruspe,
There had been some new information from GG53 that needs to be implemented. He is modifying Zigzag length (bar length) using a factor from ATR5 (ATR of 5 bars).

Carl

Yep, I know. It does make sense but I don´t like this step

Someone mentioned to me that it is a form of normalizing... like what is done with data for a neural network. Longer bars that are not "normal" lengths actually make the zigzag finish sooner, so that is why we need to add lengths to the whole zigzag.

Carl

That's NOT what I'm doing...
ZZ length remains the same.
If i'm getting a longer bar (double or triple the avg) I consider it as two or three bars in the COUNT of bars between Fractals and between ZZ end point.
Example:
If I have 3 bars, and one of them is double in size, I COUNT it as 4 bars.

G.

[VlanFx]

Hi everybody,

here is an indicator that will paint fractals based on bars' closing prices instead of classic highs/lows.
It has one input parameter ShowOnlyFractalsThatAreAlsoClassicFractals which when set to True will paint only those fractals that are also classic fractals.

Hope it helps.
Vlan

[dudest]

Hi everybody,

here is an indicator that will paint fractals based on bars' closing prices instead of classic highs/lows.
It has one input parameter ShowOnlyFractalsThatAreAlsoClassicFractals which when set to True will paint only those fractals that are also classic fractals.

Hope it helps.
Vlan

Thanks for your generosity Vlan!

Cheers :hi:

[gg53]

About High/Low Vs. Close:
Attached are 2 identical charts - one is LineChart (showing CLOSE prices) and the Other is BarChart.
Ploting an EquiDistant lines on the LineChart (CLOSE price) reveals a breakout.

EURUSDDaily_LineChart.png

Guess what happens if you see it on a BarChart...

EURUSDDaily_BarChart.png

Another Example:

USDDKKDaily_LineChart.png

USDDKKDaily_BarChart.png

Notice the GAP?
Plotting a line based on High/Low will not show you that.

G.

[VlanFx]

GG,

in your ForexGT_Arrow, do you use classic High/Low fractals or do you use fractals based on closing price?
Thanks.
Vlan

[gg53]

GG,

in your ForexGT_Arrow, do you use classic High/Low fractals or do you use fractals based on closing price?
Thanks.
Vlan

Hi,
Sorry, wrong question.

The right question is: Can I trade High/Low points? Can I trade ZZ High/Low?
You can't, even if it will appear immediatly after bar close.
The High/Low point is long gone when the bar closes.

Furthermore, take the pips distance from high to close, add spread, add slipage, add commission - and on a short timeframe you are left with almost nothing on a short leg ZZ - even if your "guess" is right.

So the answer is...

G.