Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

Post by **SteveHopwood** » Mon Nov 17, 2014 5:52 pm

Doug, I do not have any interest in this for itself as the ribbons require me to do some serious reading and I have such a lot to do already.

Others might be interested though, so can you do me a favour please? PM me on Friday with a reminder to include this thread in my wrup (include a link) please?

Post by **slowkey** » Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:24 pm

SteveHopwood » Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:52 pm wrote:Doug, I do not have any interest in this for itself as the ribbons require me to do some serious reading and I have such a lot to do already.

Others might be interested though, so can you do me a favour please? PM me on Friday with a reminder to include this thread in my wrup (include a link) please?

Will do Steve thanks ...

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 12:35 am

Don't Miss This Setup.

Consolidation setup on GBPNZD. Look at the closeness of the 15 minute CSS. It could pop similar to what we saw last week. See prior CSS.

GBPNZDM15.png

This a high probability trade. Look at the 4 hour and Daily CSS. Ideal Weak Vs Strong Setup. This could continue a bearish run. The 60 Secret Bob indicator is very reactive. There will be a widening and weakening of the GBP down below the center line with a break out on the 15 minute CSS above.

EURCHFH4.png

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 1:20 am

So you get an idea of what the full spectrum of the Ribbons looks like below is the analysis template. If the weekly is being displayed correctly which I think it is because I am not getting any missing ribbon warnings the GBPNZD is sitting right above the Weekly ribbon.

It may support it for a while. It just hit it and bounced off the fast edge with a green candle. If it does move down and through the weekly ribbon than I have a pending order below the ribbon. This is the advantage of a broader knowledge of the ribbons.
I will set up a special package with just some essential analysis templates when I get a chance. That is when the dilation of my eyes from the visit to the eye doctor wears off.

GBPNZDM15.png

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 6:32 am

So GBPNZD remains in consolidation.

Key fundamental factors that could be important today. GBP CPI is do at 0930 GMT or 0430 EST US as well as several other less important numbers at the same time.

NZD- No set time but important trade numbers which are key to its economy will be released. GDT price index.

Even in consolidation there have been several significant counter trend and trend trades that have had signals with the appropriate colored candles. Valid signals. The space between the dotted lines is 10 pips. A little deceiving related to the high volatility of the pair.
My spread is currently 2.4 to about 2.8. If you have a low spread and a small commission like I do with FXCM you could make some of these small trades and at a profit. The last drop on Friday of this pair now if you take a look was ? two gold dotted lines. 200 pips.

So in reality the nature of NZD is linked to Risk on and Risk off. So their could be a flip back to risk off trading or news that increases the strength of GBP. The longer it is in consolidation the more factors will come into play. However when this pair trends it does make the pips related to its high volatility. This is an interesting example to follow.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:00 am

So

0830 GMT and GBPNZD broke down through the Weekly Ribbon. Hopefully it will now act as resistance. Once 10 to 20 pips into the move I will put a stop loss at break even and than move it further before I sleep. I hope to let it run. I have a stop loss above the weekly. So if it gets hit there it would signal a false break out and a small loss. However placing stops behind such strong resistance is very nice especially since it took 7 hits of the fast edge before it broke through.

GBPNZDM15.png

Two Ribbon ...

GBPNZDM15._2.png

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:08 am

At 35 pips into trade moved my stop loss to break even. Will move it again a Round Number.

poundnzd3.png

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:34 am

AND ......

Pound Bulls celebrate slightly .1 higher CPI than expected. And ...

Back we go. ....

GBPNZDM15.png

Time to sleep maybe.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Nov 18, 2014 9:56 pm

Let us look back at where the 240 average ran as opposed to the 60 average. The 240 being the purple ma. In reality neither reflect the original top down approach on the 15 minute. On the 1 hour the average would have been 960 and if you take that down to the 15 minute it would have been 3840 which would be meaningless really on this lower time frame. So the indicator is a tool. A nice one for using with the two ribbons. A smoother USDJPY below.

USDJPYM15.png

The idea of trend and counter trend are relative to the movement of the 5 minute shadow ribbon for which the 60 ma gives us a very nice central tendency for trading that ribbon. When the 5 minute, the 15 minute and the 60 become flat and consolidate you must think about what will move the pair again. Has CSS changed. What are the fundamentals and next announcements. What kind of S/R is an obstacle to further resumption of the trend. What has changed.

The 60 stays nicely between the 15 minute and 5 minute ribbons. In reality I am using the indicator to give signals that support the direction of the trend which is based on the 5 minute shadow ribbon. It also reacts quickly to a consolidation of the two ribbons.

In a consolidation the central tendency establishes it self horizontally. So what is the trend really in a consolidation. So do not get to hung up with the idea that I am taking a counter trend trade or trend trade in a range trading environment. The ribbons will give you some dynamic S/R to be aware of but if you have a clear counter trend signal or a clear trend signal it is only relative to trading into the central tendency which is horizontal.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Wed Nov 19, 2014 3:25 pm

Just a word to fundamentals today. Don't forget about the FOMC Meeting Minutes this afternoon which could offer some good afternoon trading depending on what clues the Fed might offer regarding interest rate hikes. 14:00 US EST New York session. As the US economy heats up some think rates may need to increase sooner than later. Building permits were higher than expected which is another very positive sign of economic vitality in the US housing market.

Cheers,

Doug