Two Ribbons and Secret Bob on the 15 Minute

Post by **slowkey** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 9:22 am

Just a quick update on the new templates.

I am finding trading with this new template using the confirmation from the 2:1 indicators to be quite excellent.

I am going to make a new indicator as a first coding project in mql that can take advantage of the two signals given off by the 60 and 240 for the intraday period of 15 minutes. Possibly other intraday time periods. Hopefully extend that to an EA for kicks. First the indicator. I have a special visual EA building program I paid for a long time ago and the program has been enriched over time to where it is quite a nice programing environment today. It should not take long to use it to do something like this. I am very pleased with the signal the 2:1 indicators give off for the 15 minute time period. I think that the 2:1 indicators by themselves can make for a better primary intraday signal than SB. I think that the SB is just fine for the higher time periods but the two 2:1 indicator look like they make a perfect 15 minute indicator signal. Part of the reason is that the 60 time period 2:1 is just a factor of 4 bigger than the 15 minute. The 240 time period indicator is exactly a factor of 4 bigger than the 60 time period indicator. So it makes a very nice trend - counter trend signal based on an equal relationship between these periods. This idea Bob developed with these 2:1 signals is dynamite. I think particularly for the 15 minute. It may work on the 30 or 60 minute also but I sort of think that the 15 minute might be the perfect time period. No other time period offers this nice factor of four relationship between higher time periods and the trading time period. A factor of around four has always been the ideal when doing MTF trading. 2 or 3 slightly to small and 5 or 6 slightly to big.

Now back to the holiday which is today.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **traderduke** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 4:34 pm

Doug
Thanks for all the insite, it's very helpful. Have a great holiday

Ray

LarsFx · Post by **LarsFx** » Thu Nov 27, 2014 7:32 pm

Thank you so much Doug! I really appreciate the effort you put into your templates and the explanation of them!!

Have a great day!
Lars

Post by **slowkey** » Sun Nov 30, 2014 10:27 pm

Deep Breath ...
So I started out to be very specific in this thread using the SB indicator to trade the 15 minute time period. I found that to be workable but trading with it was similar to what I encountered in my Gann 10.7 intraday thread. Bob trades larger time periods and the indicators shine on the higher time periods. Intraday they loose some effectiveness but as you move up to the 30 minute and more specifically the 60 minute and up they have a lot of punch. The 2:1 Stochastic's resolves that with good confirmation of the signals given off by the SB indicator on the 15 minute. I am sure on higher time periods the SB indicator works very well and that is what Bob primarily trades but intraday trading has its own unique challenges.

The 2:1 Stochastics would make a very nice stand alone indicator for the 15 minute which I started to notice in the Gann 10.7 thread but my focus was on Gann at that time. So for now I will continue to use them as a confirmation of the SB indicator although I think they would make a nice stand alone indicator for the 15 minutes specifically but not necessarily other time periods. Now you might say that was already done with 10.7 but the primary blue signal was the trigger. So loose the blue stochastic and just use the 60 and 240 on the 15 minute and why not just have a simple indicator to throw out those signals.

Now Bob has released the HGI indicator. I am not sure if it has intraday trading significance but I am sure going to be looking at the indicator when the markets open this PM here in the US.

Finding a way to incorporate CSS directly into an indicator certainly does seem like the Holy Grail to me.

So maybe a specific 15 minute trading indicator eventually but for now I think just like everyone else I will turn my attention to HGI.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 5:16 am

TMA slope ...

HGI incorporates TMA slope. It measures the strength between the base and the quote currency. We discussed that earlier and you have a template with the indicator on it. I am not sure how it is implemented with the HGI indicator because for a very good reason the code is being protected.

Of course the other thing that is perfectly noticeable is that HGI is a much better 240 indicator. It would be good if you have not traded the Bobs previous 10.4 system to read the pdf's Bob has in his HGI indicator package download. It will give you some insight into what is taking place within the context of trading the HGI.

Now HGI itself is using the same theory as Secret Bob so making a switch to the new indicator should be painless. As you will see below adding TMA slope makes for a very powerful indicator and it is easy to compare the two templates and see the difference.

AUDUSDM15_1.png

Now an amazing transformation with TMA slope added.

AUDUSDM15_2.png

New template below and to run it you will need the latest v2 HGI package from Bobs Thread.

I added a new version of line of zero this time with a DarkGreen line. You should have everything else.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:13 am

Fell asleep in the chair ...

I will trade this setup when I can keep awake. Will this indicator work well on a lower time periods even the 15 minute ?

It is a new indicator. That all needs to be explored but the 2:1 Stochastic really gives a nice confirmation of trend and counter trend on the 15 minute and I will lean on these until I am confident HGI works on the 15 minute. The signals look pretty good just eye balling it.

Trading intraday is hard and newbies should start on the 4 hour. I have said that over and over in my threads. If your new gain insight and confidence trading with Bob on the 4 hour time period. The lower the time period the harder it gets. I have some idea how the indicator works and my gut tell me it should work but that is nothing like trading it forward to know. So I will use the 2:1 for trend confirmation and pursue using the indicator on the 15 minutes.

I was trying to do a particular thing here primarily in this thread as out lined below.

1. Demonstrate the best Secret Bob signals to take on a small time period like the 15 minute. (Added 2:1 Stochastics to help with confirmation)

2. Point out the home run setup: consolidation zones where the 240 or 60 MA's merge with the two ribbons. Usually a setup for a large break out continuation trade or reversal trade. (Illustrated the GBPNZD trade doing that although fundamentals did become a factor in the trade)

3. Demonstrate how Four Hour and Daily CSS can give you confirmation of the likely direction of the trade and from that information how best to setup a pending trade. (Gave an example of that with the GBPNZD trade)

4. Demonstrate the importance of factoring in fundamentals to the home run setup. (Well we did and the CPI release did become a player)

5. When to take a Counter Trend trade on the 15 minute and demonstrate how to use 15 minute CSS to point out high probability Counter Trend Trades even in a strong trend. (HGI should be able to handle that but we will see)

A correction ...
The Neotraders indicator was showing TMA slope and not 15 minute CSS. You can show 15 minute or 30 minute CSS but on the full spectrum CSS indicator with all the pairs. I did show one of those charts coming off of the weekend before the holiday.

So the chart I illustrated showing the counter trend trade was using a TMA slope indicator. It was just weighing the strength of the two chart currencies and not more specifically all GBP or NZD combined from all their pairs. So it is a misnomer to call it CSS but it was not a hard mistake to make given the thought process involved.

6. I will also from time to time show a Full Gann Analysis chart to point out:

a. Best places to place stops. b. Best places to exit. c. Best places to put tight stops where they probably will not get hit. (Did this with the GBPNZD trade)

7. New Added the 240_2:1 Stochastic for a solid intraday trend
8. New Added the 60_2:1 Stochastic for a solid counter trend signal.

9. New ... HGI replaces the Secret Bob indicator. (The signals look cleaner ... We will find out)

I primarily am looking to get into the home run setups with good direction. Everything else will be icing on the cake. Indicators are still tools. There are no perfect indicators but TMA slope if it could be added to an indicator would be dynamite. So Bob just did that and will see how that helps us with the home run setups. One thing can be observed. Gone are all the counter trend arrows when in a strong trend with the indicator. That is a major improvement from what I can observe in comparison to the previous indicator. The wavy lines look real good on the 15 minute. Hey ... it is forward testing time. SB was a 240 indicator and so is HGI so we will see where it takes us.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Mon Dec 01, 2014 10:39 am

OK ...

So after catching up with Bobs comments on trading the lower time periods with HGI I found his explanations seem to fit with what I have been observing or at least how I thought the indicator worked but there is nothing like forward testing with real money. So that will happen when I can get caught up with some rest.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Dec 02, 2014 6:23 am

I going to spend some time trading the four hour this week with HGI and get a feel for the new indicator. I get a lot of signals on the 15 minutes and feel if I trade the four hour time period for a while I will get a better feel for how best to use the indicator on other time periods.

If you trade the intraday time periods you are going to want to pick up on some of the 60 to a 100 pip runs. Pairs consolidate and then when traders become uncomfortable with the pricing of a pair related to a whole host of reasons a pair will break one way or the other.

Bob has put his system knowledge of many years into a indicator that does a lot of things even maybe make the point of this thread not really relative any more. HGI should pick up on these movements.

The other reason is that this is December and the Christmas season and I will be spending a lot of time involved in other things besides trading.

So it is a good point to take a pause since the release of HGI just changed trading at SteveHopwood.com ...

So this is full disclosure time ...

Besides Music ...
My first love in life is the sport of kings. Horse Racing.

I recently told Steve that I have made more money handicapping than I ever have trading which is true. I also have been very good at spending it.

In the 1970 - 2000 period in the US handicapping became a real science and art. The computer programs I use to handicap would boggle your mind in their refinement and sophistication. In the 2000-2014 period tournament play has emerged big time to the point payouts for the top players finishing in the top 20 or so places are in the thousands to 10's of thousands of dollars. Tournament winner payouts are in the 100,000 to 300,000 range and in one contest a million dollars. Derby Wars a legal fantasy racing internet site in the US has a 100,000 dollar on line internet contest once a month and many more smaller contest every day for hundreds of dollars to thousands of dollars every week.
Beyond financial incentive handicapping is the greatest game ever invented by man. Just ask a handicapper.

It also has some of the nicest men and women you can meet in life participating and the camaraderie is a big part of the fun.
It is has become a new goal of mine to become one of the best players in the world. I sort of chuckle when I say that. The Hubris.

Hubris means extreme pride or self-confidence. When it offends the Gods of ancient Greece, it is usually punished.

I am just starting out in this pursuit. I am a really good handicapper but I want to take it to the next level. So that involves a lot of time. I have that time because I am retired and can pursue this dream. At 61 and with a lot of physical ailments handicapping puts all those things out of mind and sight. I will always trade but to be very honest the fun I get from the sport of horse racing far exceeds financial incentives. Even is you are not handicapping watching California Chrome the Kentucky Derby Winner and Preakness winner win the Hollywood Derby on Saturday on Grass for the first time was just one of those sparkling moments that gives you chills. To watch these spectacular Equine athletes run is what is all about in the end. Handicapping is a sport I can participate in that requires me to keep my mental functions very sharp. It rewards experience over youthful aggression. My Mom has the tragic disease Alzheimer's and keeping your mind engaged is one of those things that is wise as you get older.

So I am still here and will still be trading but I find my most joyfully spent moments spent in the art of handicapping and the sport of kings.

Cheers,

Doug

Post by **nanningbob** » Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:00 am

Thanks Doug. I have not posted much on your threads but I have always enjoyed your insight. I appreciate your commentary on trading lower TF. Thank you for all your efforts. Hope to meet you someday and if you ever get to the Florida tracks let me know. I have never gone but am fascinated with horses. Love to ride them in the mountains and consider riding a horse in the mountains at Yellowstone Natl. Park on of the great highlights of my life. Good luck and hope we meet some day.

Post by **slowkey** » Tue Dec 02, 2014 8:52 am

nanningbob » Tue Dec 02, 2014 4:00 am wrote:Thanks Doug. I have not posted much on your threads but I have always enjoyed your insight. I appreciate your commentary on trading lower TF. Thank you for all your efforts. Hope to meet you someday and if you ever get to the Florida tracks let me know. I have never gone but am fascinated with horses. Love to ride them in the mountains and consider riding a horse in the mountains at Yellowstone Natl. Park on of the great highlights of my life. Good luck and hope we meet some day.

I actually lived in Ft Lauderdale Florida when I was in my 20's for about 3 years. I have not been back there since that time but hope to some day. I would love to meet you and take you to the track some time. Definitely will put that on my to do list. Gulf Stream is one of the Great Tracks in the country. Nothing like seeing the track through the eyes of handicapper. Have a great time with Steve. I want to get to England to meet Steve some time and the piano is one of my favorite instruments to listen to with my love of Classic Music and Jazz. Maybe get a free lesson or something ...

Better yet... a fine single malt Scotch.

Have fun ...
Cheers,

Doug