Intraday HGI or what ever is next :)

[slowkey]

Season's Greetings,
I will have updated templates and a new Package as soon as I digest the changes in the HGI indicator which are more cosmetic than functional from what Bob states.

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

New Package in Post 1

The new template with latest indicator below. The 2:1 indicator is a wonderful intraday confirmation of Price movement and HGI signals.

Now we can adjust alarms and colors to our own liking. Very nice.

EURAUD 15 minute ...

EURAUDM15.png

EURAUD 30 minute ...

EURAUDM30.png

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

Now a new package setup to take advantage of Pedro's Hurst Chart theory from his thread in this section specifically on the 60 minute and 240 minute.

Also I created a Bollinger Bands setup for all time periods. There is a statistical reality to TMA that allowed Pedro to use a TMA centered MA indicator to model his hurst charts on the 60 and 240 minute time periods. There is also a statistical nature to BB's.

The Bollinger Bands are setup as follows on the template. The outer band is set at a 2.1 deviations. There is an inner band set at 1.1 deviations on time periods below 60. On time periods 30 minutes and up there is a central BB based on a deviation of 0.25 that acts as a decision zone.

In theory it is stated that 95 percent of the time price will close within the 2.0 deviation zone of a 20 ma BB. However this is not accurate. It is impossible to get this exact percentage related to a security prices daily and seasonal volatility. So it actually less than 95 percent. Security prices do not follow a normal distribution related to price because of volatility.

My outer band is set at 2.1. when the inner band is present it is set at 1.1. On time periods below 60 minute this creates a 1 deviation channel. Within an established trend prices will close within this zone most of the time. As price is stretched beyond the 2.1 deviation band closing outside of it a retrace or top is more likely in a trend.

For the periods of 60 and 240 minutes there is no inner 1.1 deviation. We have the TMA centered averages to use along with the outer Bollinger Band to establish a decision point for a take profit or counter trend move.

On time periods of 30 minutes and up I created a central zone based on a .25 deviation of a 20 ma. All BB's are based on a 20 ma on the template. The purpose of this zone is to create a decision zone for either reentering a trend when a HGI Trend signal is present or to separate out in a consolidation price tendency for a better understanding of Range signals. Signals outside this zone being probably better than those close or with in it. I do not know how this will work out in practice but it does seem to give a better perspective of price action in horizontal price action.

I think BB and Hurst can play really well with HGI. The wavy lines fit nicely into the extremes of the volatility pattern of the BB's.

The Four hour below with Hurst averages and the 2.1 and central .25 BB's.

USDJPYH4_1.png

The 30 minute with all the BB's below

USDJPYM30_2.png

The five minute with just the outer two bands ... 2.1 and 1.1.

USDJPYM5_3.png

Not shown is the 1 minute. But it does look quite fascinating on some pairs.

Edit ... You will need to read Pedro's Hurst Chart Thread to understand what is happening with the 60 minute and 240 minute.

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

Just for those who are not as familiar with Empty4 templates.

You can use the visualization setting to turn any feature on or off for the time period you want to see it on. Some maybe finding some success with the Hurst charts on lower time periods. If you want to see Hurst on lower time periods just turn on the visualization settings for the two TMA-centered Averages on the time periods you are interested in seeing.

The key two looking at Hurst on lower time periods will be the Cross Over point of the two averages. This is where the decision can be made about a possible size of a move. On the lower time periods there will be a good bit of noise but if the cross over point appears fixed than you can estimate the potential move.

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

Oh on my template the setting under chart properties ... Chart on foreground is checked.

You will need to un-check this so that you can see the Hurst Lines. I am in the habit of checking this on the Gann charts but this is not necessary here. You can also zoom the chart nicely when Gann ribbons are not present. So you may want to blow everything up a little.



Cheers,

Doug

[slowkey]

Updated Post 1 with a new download package.

Fixed cosmetic issues.

I only have trend alarms set to on. Adjust alarms to your liking.

Hurst is on all time periods now. Use the visualization setting to turn on or off what ever feature for a time period you wish to see or not see.

The template on the 1 minute is set up for scalping with the SSG indicator set at 1 pip dotted and 10 pip solid line on the minute.

The template on the 5 minute is set up for scalping with the SSG indicator set at 2 pip dotted and 10 pip solid line on the minute.

The template on the Daily and up is set up with the SSG indicator set at 100 pip dotted and 1000 pip solid line.

The chart properties now have chart on foreground un-checked.

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

Simplify ... Simplify ...

I love this setup. No more 2:1 indicators. I pulled the Outer Bands back to a deviation of 2.0 and pushed the central bands to all time periods and made them less intrusive but I find I really like this central bands. I colored out the Hurst system to make it stand out. I got rid of the 1.1 band because it just does not give us as much info as Hurst does.

I love the way the Hurst system works with the BB's. I do not have to have perfect Hurst on the lower time periods with the Bollinger Bands telling their story. The Bollinger Band and Hurst systems work really well together to inform you where a move is going to retrace or top. Even on the fast moving small time periods the Bands and Hurst can give you the info on what kind of move you are looking at and when to get out. They seem to make each other better by working in unison to point out when statistically a move is unlikely to continue. I love this HGI setup. There will always be a lot of judgement in trading intraday small time periods but this system with BB's, Hurst, and HGI is really nice. Price pushes beyond the bands and the 5 MA curls out and even with the MA being really dynamic on the lower time periods the Bands are their to indicate if price is pushing itself into a non sustainable path that is going to lead to a retrace and a good point to take profits.

The 1 hour EURAUD below.

EURAUDH1.png

The 15 minute GBPJPY below.

GBPJPYM15.png

Cheers,
Doug

[traderduke]

slowkey
Great insight, I look forward to testing your lower time frames.

Regards
Ray

[royal]

Hi Slowkey!
Thanks for sharing! But could you post some trade examples to make the system more clear? What's the use of the dotted grey bands in the middle?

[slowkey]

Hi Slowkey!
Thanks for sharing! But could you post some trade examples to make the system more clear? What's the use of the dotted grey bands in the middle?

The central band is where price often pull back to on the larger time periods and a great place to reenter on a strong HGI signal.
It is also where price will pause to either resume a trend or consolidate.

USDJPYH4.png

In a consolidation it constricts down to almost nothing when there is not enough volatility to trade. Between the two red circles notice what the Hurst is telling you. It is already outside the dotted yellow line to the over extended side of price. You definitely would not use a market order here. If you wanted to capture a break out just set a pending order out of harms way. The band also highlights extended price areas with a large amount of space separating it from the outer bands when price is extended out. The fact that it constricts makes it more functional than just putting a 20 moving average line in that space. In low volatility it really constricts.

GBPJPYH4.png

I will be posting trades.

Cheers,
Doug