Gann Ribbon 10.7 System

[slowkey]

So just like I did the Gann Ribbons using math you can do the 60 minute TMA on the 15 minute. The 5 ma becomes 20 on the 15 minute and the 10 ma on the 60 minute becomes 40 on the 15 minute. So as you see you get a smooth average on the 15 minute just like the 60 minute.

Compare both time periods below. 5 and 10 on the 60 minute and 20 and 40 on the 15 minute. Only very slight differences.

EURCADH1.png

EURCADM15.png

So a better way to do MTF most of the time is just through equivalent math. So you get a smooth average based in this case on a factor of 4.

So if you want to see the average on the 15 minute you can set two TMA Centered Averages to 20 and 40.

Cheers,
Doug

[ivanlabrie]

Good idea, will give it a go.

[slowkey]

I am trying to develop a one minute trading setup for 5 minute Nadex binaries.

I like a 4:1 ratio for a higher to lower time period ratio. It really does not matter if Empty4 has a 4 minute time period. If you do it in math a 5 and 10 for example on the 4 minute would be simply 20 and 40 on the 1 minute. So if you set the TMA's to those setting on the 1 minute and set the same period on Pips400's MTF hurst indicator leaving time period set to 0 you would have the following chart.

This is one of the best scalping systems ever done and you will find it at FF under systems. It was done by Cobraforex. Just do a search. The version 4 installer does not work right now since Empty4 has gone past 600 plus. So use it and retrieve the indicators from the regular install directory. Right click the short cut to find it and cut the indicators out of the indicator folder there and put them in the data folder when Empty4 is open. You can get the templates and the extra's from the installer package.

I might make a template with Gann for 1 minute added once I sort out if this will works for Nadex. I will not publish any of Cobra's stuff here though because of copy right of Cobra's package. I think however I could publish my template here. So go there for his system if your interested. It maybe that some of his complex templates do not work in 600 plus Empty4. The simplest one I could find did. Anyway that is just a little background as to what you are looking at and I am not going to discuss the system in this thread any further other than to give this example of math equivalent time periods and maybe later post my template for Nadex with Gann. I will keep this thread otherwise to topic.

EURUSDM1.png

So the point is that TMA's might work on smaller periods when using higher time periods with a perfect 4 to 1 ratio. This is just an experiment but I think sometimes we forget that math can do a better job sometimes than MTF indicators. Thats is how the Gann ribbons were done that is why for instance they will work in the FXblue trade simulator and it is a way to do any other indicator that can be converted to math. I have not wrapped my head around anyway to do 2:1 indicators with math but maybe there is a way.

Cheers,
Doug

[fire580]

Sounds great Doug will be following this for sure.

[slowkey]

I am done with exploring TMA's below the 60 minute time period. In my thinking TMA is a high time period tool. They work wonders with CSS, HGI, and Hurst modeling. They just break down below 60 minutes.

What works well than below 60 minutes.

Pure price action and volume. They are the only pure leading indicators.
CJ & Pips400 though have explored this subject and everyone should spend some time with it.
Hard for many though.

Tick volume works well with the better volume indicator. A little easier but you do not always get signals in low volatility markets.

FXCM however does have real volume now from all their internal flow. Their next version of Trading Station comes out on the 16th with 5 new indicators which are 5 volume related indicators. On Balance Real Volume, Directional Real Volume, and of course they have had a Real Volume indicator. So they are taking there internal volume flow and substituting their own in place of tick volume. However this can work quite well. I have traded on Ninja with Darrell Martin's volume indicator where he takes real futures volume and substitutes it for Forex tick volume. His systems are based on price action, volume and tick charts or diagnostic bars as he has programmed his own bars and they work very nicely. I suspect that FXCM has enough size to offer now an even better approach. They are the largest retail broker in the USA with a market cap of 1.3 Billion and 212,019 accounts so that would be a significant but still small amount of total daily Forex volume. However it is their real volume. Darrell showed me that approach can work and should work better with real spot Forex volume.

One of these indicators is unique
"Find the smart money—Market Movers Index shows the ratio of real volume divided into transactions per period, so you can see conviction behind breakouts."

This is something only a broker could reveal using their internal flow.

VPA aka a little book by Anna Coulling that I bought for .99 cents on Amazon a while back. You can read it for free if you are a member of kindle unlimited. Better to join and read all her books for free for one month. A nice little primer though.

Better Volume and Price Action. A little easier maybe. Better volume however does not always give you a strong signal in low volatility markets. Nice adjunct indicator though so I use it as such. Once you watch a few video's it is not to hard to understand. I use the Empty4 version and it add two bars. One color tells you if volume is greater than the last two and the other if it is less than the last two. So that makes the blue neutral bars just that. Neutral. However this is tick volume and it is exciting to see a broker improving on this by using their internal volume to do various indicators.

Price action. Time bars vs Tick charts. I have traded tick charts set at a certain brick size. I prefer this but it is just awful in Empty4. To many work around's have to be done. Empty4 was never designed to do fixed sized bars. Renko is a mess to setup. Ninja is fabulous for this. Now fxcm's trading station does many of these out of the box. They are called views but are easy to set up. To me Darrell's diagnostic bars at Apex trading are the best I have ever seen. I am not going to pay for them though unless I take up futures trading. However systems built on pure volume and these diagnostic bars work better than time based candles or bars. Why move to another bar if nothing has changed. Makes sense. Pure volume and fixed bar size unrelated to time seems best. Bars are than sized based on the volatility of a pair. A bar can be an hour old but if nothing has changed why create a new one. Price action is than tied closely to volume. The only way to trade futures contracts to my way of thinking.

Some type of timing indicator. Stochastic's are the simplest to understand. MACD's are popular but they lag more for entry and they are more open to interpretation. CCI is great but it takes more experience to interpret a CCI especially a two period one. I like CCI though. It is one of my favorites. The Trix indicator for small time periods like the 1 or 5 minutes aka Cobraforex. It is hard to beat.

No mater what indicator you use a multi-time period approach works best. Alexander Elder comes to mind. He has written some of the best books on trading I have read.

So that leads to the approach Bob took with 10.7. A sound easy to understand entry signal based on higher time periods. I use the 240 and 60 time periods intraday for the 2:1 Stochs. You also get some idea of overbought from these Stochs along with the primary on the 5 minute and 15 minute. Works fabulously with the Gann ribbons. Ribbons supply some understanding of exit points or whether a trade is even a good idea for instance in a consolidation. So they supply a S/R role along with traditional pivots and such.

Bands can really be of help on lower time periods where TMA seems to fail. I like these linear regression channels. They seem to work quite well at predicting price movement away from the central tendency. ATR bands the same. Can work Well. Bollinger too.

I am impressed by Gann and Linear Regression together in that what the ribbons do not catch the linear regression channel does. It is also simple. Simple is good. Intraday news will be always a big factor. It can melt ribbons and S/R round numbers or pivots. However it is hard to blow by a large time period ribbon edge unless a major change is about to happen. So often price will stop in a reversal at the Daily, Four Hour or even the hourly ribbon.

So my first choice for trading would be pure price action and some sort of a volume based bar and real volume indicators. I suspect I will be trading more and more on Trading Station since in the US I have only a limited amount of brokers to trade with and trading station is getting a lot of improvements by FXCM and it is free. I do not know how well Trading Station does automated approaches but you can automate.

I still have an Oanda account and you can trade any amount of units or leverage up to 50:1 on their own platform which is very robust and fast. However it is very limited as far as features which is a shame. There are a few other very good brokers in the US but I am sticking with the two biggest for now. Now as the New Year begins I will be getting back to my first love which is handicapping.

So on Empty4 intraday I use 10.7, Gann Ribbons, Better volume, and CSS to trade. Maybe I will add something like linear regression.

What else. News. Fundamentals. This is something you have to learn your self. I talked some about the Jarratt Davis approach to to trading fundamentals as being very practical. http://www.jarrattdavis.com/

I think the best approach to intraday trading will always be a mix of technical and fundamental analysis.

Cheers,
Doug

[ivanlabrie]

Great post Dough, thanks for sharing!

[slowkey]

Central Banks do not care if you are long or short.

Cheers,
Doug

[slowkey]

So a tremendous amount of Damage was done to world retail Forex brokers and traders by the CHF debacle.

It will be interesting to see what the fall out will be in the US. FXCM apparently took a big hit and so did Oanda. I have an account with Oanda and just got an email from them. This part of what Oanda stated in their email.

"In the wake of this unprecedented market event, OANDA demonstrated its ongoing commitment to doing right by its clients. Despite suffering losses and vanishing liquidity in the institutional hedging market, OANDA remained true to its 14-year legacy of transparency, integrity and fairness to our clients. OANDA did not re-quote or amend any CHF cross client trades. We even took the further step of forgiving all negative client balances that were caused when clients could not close out their positions fast enough (where permitted by regulations).

As a very well capitalized broker, we are proud to report that it is business as usual at OANDA: client trading, deposits and withdrawals are processing normally."

In the US there has been a tightening of the regulatory climate chasing many under funded brokerages out of the market. The ones that remain are very well financed and have segregated funds to an amount specified by the regulators. Many of us have not like the regulations that have been imposed by the government but on a day like this maybe were very lucky.

FXCM took a big hit and as a publicly traded company they also took a Big Hit on Wall Street. However they seemed to have so far survived and trading was not stopped during the melt down.

A lot of traders and no doubt the whole market was caught by surprise. Personally I do not trade CHF pairs other than an occasional venture into GBPCHF and have stated that in the past in this thread. Now however the CHF pairs will be trade-able again once the dust clears.

I suspect there will be a run on a lot of marginal brokers to remove money by traders.

I suspect that the US will push for even more controls on trading currency internationally. That has been the climate in the US since 2008.

There is no fail safe in the currency markets. If this had been Wall Street trading would have been suspended.

So I hope traders here were not caught up in this to any great extent.

However this is a time to evaluate how well your broker got through this mess.

Just an edit 1/16 now to say that FXCM apparently lost 225 million dollars. They are big enough to get through this but apparently are talking to regulators. There must be some problems with their safe guards. The regulatory climate in the US being what it is ... That is not to surprising. Forest Magnates has stated recently that FXCM does a 20 billion dollar daily volume in Forex. I have an account with them too but they are so big I doubt this will destabilize them but it will hurt them financially and on Wall Street.

Three years ago I had a Pulmonary embolism on my birthday. Spent it in the hospital. No problem yesterday. However I will have this currency debacle to remember this one by. I turned 62 on Thursday. End of Edit

God Bless and Hope you all have survived this Thursday.

Doug

[royal]

Their next version of Trading Station comes out on the 16th with 5 new indicators which are 5 volume related indicators.

Is the release still today? Or do they have other problems at the moment?

[slowkey]

Their next version of Trading Station comes out on the 16th with 5 new indicators which are 5 volume related indicators.

Is the release still today? Or do they have other problems at the moment?

I have an appointment and I will check this afternoon.

It is being reported by Reuters that Alpari UK has entered insolvency. They are saying client funds are safe and segregated. SNB's actions have taken them down.


FXCM being a listed Wall Street company has been pretty up front on releasing information.

I would imagine their problems would mean they would have to take actions to retighten their books to meet strick US regulations. I do not think they are at risk of insolvency. This is not my impression of what is happening.

Cheers,
Doug