This post is for the noobs.
I am really glad that today happened. I feel sympathy for those of you who lost actual cash; I was just plain lucky that I happened to set HGB up at
precisely the right moment. This is the first time I have enjoyed this level of trading fortune during my 8 years associated with the train wreck that is Retail Forex trading. Think about that for a few seconds guys, and let its import sink in.
My 'Welcome' message to new members here begins with this statement: "Newbie traders, you are the most fortunate beginners in the whole history of retail forex trading." Reason being, you have stumbled upon the greatest collection of minds pulling in the same direction and offering their expertise for free that you will ever come across.
Those noobs who have been bitten on the bum on demo today are doubly fortunate. You have learned a harsh lesson the easy way. Us old stagers learned it the hard way, by blowing real cash accounts.
Many noobs here will have been lulled into a sense of security by HGB's performance that is so false it is beyond your understanding. The Forex market is a vicious beast. It will ruthlessly punish every mistake you make. Unfailingly. Every time.
Time to repeat my mantra. Emblazon this upon your souls noobs. It is this: if something
can happen, and it is bad for you, then it
will happen and sooner rather than later.
Those of you who got wiped out today did so because you over-traded. Don't argue with this - I will delete your post. Here is how you avoid over-trading:
- tiny lot sizes. Do not increase them as your confidence grows into overconfidence after a few weeks success. Maximum of 0.01 lots per $1000 (please see the edit at the bottom of this post).
- limit the pairs you trade to the majors - perhaps throw GJ into the mix.
- do not attempt to overcome the over-trading filters in HGB. Accept them. Embrace them. Make them even more stringent.
Perhaps some of you now have a better understanding of why I am so fierce here. It is better that you feel hurt by me but perhaps a tad more thoughtful, than broke.
What happened today was this: the Swiss decoupled their currency from the Euro instead of shadowing it as it had been for months. The SNB did this without warning and pairs such as the EC plunged thousands of pips in seconds. Look at what happened. This is an H1 chart because I only thought to add this 18 months after the event, and there is only so far back in time that lower time frames will go:
EURCHFH1.png
See how the pair had bobbled around for ages? It had bobbled around for a lot more ages in the lead up to the decoupling. Then wham. EChf dropped 3,500, in round numbers, in seconds. Really. Seconds. It was that fast.
I looked at my tiny account at the start of all this and it was a few dollars in credit, prices were changing rapidly and I wondered whether to close the position. I looked away, then looked back and the account equity had quadrupled - yes, it
really did happen that fast. I dragged the close all script immediately but even then there was one trade that resolutely refused to close - happily Jem was on patrol at GP and closed it for me.
A lot of members here were caught on the wrong side of that move. A lot of stop losses were blown clear through and many accounts were blown in seconds.
Those of you arriving at this post from the link in post 1, now travel back to
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 81#p111081 and read from there to get a sense of the confusion that reigned today. This sort of massacre can arise at the drop of a hat. It did today.
EDIT 9th August 2019
Experience has shown that 0.01 lots per $1,000 is reasonably safe. I reckon that you can thrive and prosper with an opening balance of $10,000. You stand a chance with $5,000. Do some saving up, folks.
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