The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 7:38 am

EURUSD has gotten into the buy zone

EURJPY is replaying the 'c' leg of a-b-c for longs

Most USDs are also in their sell zones

L3 is usually the leg that goes farthest. My orders are lined up

Post by **botrak** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:02 am

Dudest, how long you hold your drawdown if price dont reverse at 61/73 fibs or C [a-b-c]. And what is the money management behind your limit orders at key levels.

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 8:10 am

dudest » Thu Mar 26, 2015 5:11 pm wrote:Take on NZDUSD

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20150326_nzdusd_h4_levels_+_barf_+_abc_shorts.png

20150331_nzdusd_h4_levels_+_barf_+_abc_shorts_end.png

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dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 9:40 am

botrak » Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:02 am wrote:Dudest, how long you hold your drawdown if price dont reverse at 61/73 fibs or C [a-b-c]. And what is the money management behind your limit orders at key levels.

@DD:

Depends ( got no hard/fast rules, though there's one embedded deep in my mind that says: do not panic ]

# If there's an S/R in the path after 61.8, 73.6, I hold, and see if it will turn at the S/R
# If I have more margin than I need, I'm more likely to be lenient
# If similar pairs are going according to the plan, I give the errant pair room to move about
[ e.g right now, USDSEK, USDSGD, USDJPY, USDZAR,... playing around their 61.8,73.6 zones; USDCAD pushed past its 73.6 but not worried; there's only so far it can go if the pair is meant to turn soon ]

If it's strikingly clear I'm wrong or I'm running out of margin for the good trades,
# I either cut the losses alone
# or I clear the slate ( with the good trades reducing the overall DD ) and start over

@Money Management:

None really. I don't use SLs 90-something % of the time. So I don't say "this trade is risking x% of my a/c
I just fly by the seat of my pants ( based on how much margin I have )
# If I want to open many trades across many pairs ( a form of stacking for me), I reduce the lots
# If I am only opening trades in 2 or 3 pairs, I increase the lots
Basically, whatever my margin will handle based on a gut feel of how 'good' the trade/setup is [ much of that gut feel has been developed over the course of many margin calls, seeing other people's charts, spending time in my own charts and just plain old risking it! ]

Hope that somehow answers your question, holla back if still something is off...

Cheers

Post by **mobthehop** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:05 am

dudest - on what TF do you normally apply the fibs? Only H4?

Cheers

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:09 am

mobthehop » Tue Mar 31, 2015 2:05 pm wrote:dudest - on what TF do you normally apply the fibs? Only H4?

Cheers

Hi mob,

On whichever timeframe I'm trading off of. Just that I am mostly on H4

Cheers!

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:48 am

dudest » Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:22 am wrote:Any other day I'd have jumped in long on this, but I'm curbing recklessness

Wonder if it'll go back all the way to the top

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5 trading days (and 600 pips) later...

20150325_gbpaud_d1_channel.png

20150331_gbpaud_d1_channel.png

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dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:15 pm

dudest » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:40 pm wrote:
...

[ e.g right now, USDSEK, USDSGD, USDJPY, USDZAR,... playing around their 61.8,73.6 zones; USDCAD pushed past its 73.6 but not worried; there's only so far it can go if the pair is meant to turn soon ]

...

The CAD is barrelling downwards on all pairs I'm looking at

--> AUDCAD at the bottom of its D1 TV, W has formed on H1/H4
--> CADJPY H4 has an extended short A-B-C (wonder how I missed it); has just broken the 'neck-line'
--> GBPCAD D1 on a long retrace, is no-where near Fib 50 yet

Possible game-changers:
a) CAD 'red news' out in 15 mins, could be interesting...
b) USDCAD top of range ( 1.2800 ) not yet reached. Currently acting as resistance
b) USD!! A couple of USD 'news' releases out after the CAD

Moral: Holding onto my shorts, should be an interesting ride

Cheers

dudest · Post by **dudest** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 12:44 pm

dudest » Tue Mar 31, 2015 3:15 pm wrote:
The CAD is barrelling downwards on all pairs I'm looking at

--> AUDCAD at the bottom of its D1 TV, W has formed on H1/H4
--> CADJPY H4 has an extended short A-B-C (wonder how I missed it); has just broken the 'neck-line'
--> GBPCAD D1 on a long retrace, is no-where near Fib 50 yet

Possible game-changers:
a) CAD 'red news' out in 15 mins, could be interesting...
b) USDCAD top of range ( 1.2800 ) not yet reached. Currently acting as resistance
b) USD!! A couple of USD 'news' releases out after the CAD

Moral: Holding onto my shorts, should be an interesting ride

Cheers

Sly ol' Foxy did not disappoint

20150330_usdcad_h4_levels_shorts_m5_view.png

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Post by **botrak** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 1:42 pm

Do you think we gonna have upside stophunt during USD news or straight move down?