The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[botrak]

I feel like all this stuff aka a-b-c, pins, RTT, W, M, SH, trapping volume, 3 pushes/levels, 3day cycle, "asian range widening and reversal" setup and any other pattern are useless unless you know where is REAL turning/reversal point located.

For example EURUSD fall since may 2014 and there is no "3 levels rise/fall and reverse" at Daily timeframe. There are many cases when price dont follow 3day cycle nor 3 levels/pushes setup across all pairs and timeframes.

If we have 3 day cycle(or 3 levels) at H1 its usually 1-2 levels at H4 and only 1 push at Daily , so should we expect SH+reverse? or range+SH and continuation? I often get into trap like "well ill try to short/long at level 4" then level 5 an so on.

Its easy to map charts afterwards but in real time you cant be sure and say "this is Peak low/high". Price can travel 1 or 2 levels from Peak but fail to reach 3rd and reverse. After that we always can change to higher timeframe and say "it was only level 1/2(at higher one) and retrace/range".

I also cant trade off H4/Daily S/R levels[zones] with 10-15 SL style. At H1 and less I cant find out is S/R real or fake. Afrer 3 levels/pushes price can form W/M at S/R, bounce for 10-30 pips then return and start ranging or breakout and continue. Its not hard to catch 5-10 pips moves but RR is too small to make these trades.

And ofcource you cant stack/pyramid decent lot size orders if you dont know if price will travel at least 50 pips in desired direction without stophunt/pullback/reversal.

Most of the time I enter at "pins" but get stophunted or BE. I rarely get ADR+ trades or even 50+ ones and lose all the profit due to many -15/-20 pips trades (failed RTTs, Ws, Ms, trapping volume pins, "C" point in a-b-c).

I dont get something important? Or maybe fox invented new stuff? Also CJ lurking around but dont post single chart or message quite long. I need your help. Any advice welcome.

P.S.: Sorry for poor English.

[sympathy]

Hey botrak, seems you are having little problem with this easy stuffs 3pushes, 3days circle and 3levels can never be changed by the fox. he can only dirty the pattern that is why we need to read and learn everyday for us to see them.

talking about levels and pushes, time frames differs but they are desame pattern 4hr time-frame tends to take longer time to complete the pattern than 1hr and 15mins.

A complete 3levels in 1hr time-frame is a level 1 in 4hr time-frame
Another complete 3levels in 1hr time-frame is a 4hr second level.

when you have 3days of rise/fall in price, the next day usually reverses to level one of 4hr. so it keeps repeating for level 2 of 4hr.
hope you understand the scope so it takes many daily candles to complete a 4hr 3levels depending on the pairs movement. generally, pattern repeats itself everyday it left for us to understand and locate them.

[seanyd]

I quite fancy these , see what happens

Screenshot (3).png

Screenshot (4).png

[BobbyT]

I feel like all this stuff aka a-b-c, pins, RTT, W, M, SH, trapping volume, 3 pushes/levels, 3day cycle, "asian range widening and reversal" setup and any other pattern are useless unless you know where is REAL turning/reversal point located.

For example EURUSD fall since may 2014 and there is no "3 levels rise/fall and reverse" at Daily timeframe. There are many cases when price dont follow 3day cycle nor 3 levels/pushes setup across all pairs and timeframes.

If we have 3 day cycle(or 3 levels) at H1 its usually 1-2 levels at H4 and only 1 push at Daily , so should we expect SH+reverse? or range+SH and continuation? I often get into trap like "well ill try to short/long at level 4" then level 5 an so on.

Its easy to map charts afterwards but in real time you cant be sure and say "this is Peak low/high". Price can travel 1 or 2 levels from Peak but fail to reach 3rd and reverse. After that we always can change to higher timeframe and say "it was only level 1/2(at higher one) and retrace/range".

I also cant trade off H4/Daily S/R levels[zones] with 10-15 SL style. At H1 and less I cant find out is S/R real or fake. Afrer 3 levels/pushes price can form W/M at S/R, bounce for 10-30 pips then return and start ranging or breakout and continue. Its not hard to catch 5-10 pips moves but RR is too small to make these trades.

And ofcource you cant stack/pyramid decent lot size orders if you dont know if price will travel at least 50 pips in desired direction without stophunt/pullback/reversal.

Most of the time I enter at "pins" but get stophunted or BE. I rarely get ADR+ trades or even 50+ ones and lose all the profit due to many -15/-20 pips trades (failed RTTs, Ws, Ms, trapping volume pins, "C" point in a-b-c).

I dont get something important? Or maybe fox invented new stuff? Also CJ lurking around but dont post single chart or message quite long. I need your help. Any advice welcome.

P.S.: Sorry for poor English.

Hi Botrak,

I feel your pain. I also feel I am missing something important. It may just be experience/chart time(?)
I rarely find positions that last more than 20 pips. If I hold, it goes to BE. If I close, it goes a long way haha.

I think a big part of of this style is charts, charts, charts. Those who got this early on, Kwan, Mike, Xriskmak all suggested large amounts of chart time, both live and historical.

I have very little experience in forex. Maybe a year or two tops. Much of that was 'wasted' on coding EAs with no understanding of the market (maybe about a year and a half). The rest has been spent on blindly following mechanical systems.

Getting direct feedback from charts (was I right or wrong) tells you just that, if you were right or wrong. It doesn't show you why you were right or wrong.

Not to get into a pissing contest, but I think, if possible, we could start posting marked up charts again to see where we are going wrong in our thinking as was done in the first year or so of the thread. After all, how can we see things in real time if we can't see them properly in history.

So, to help us poor newbies out, could I kindly ask that people look over this chart and suggest what is right/wrong about the mark up. Even if it is a small part of the mark up, this feedback can greatly help with identifying flaws in our analysis/logic.

Thanks for reading and sorry for sounding like a crying baby.
BobbyT

[volumeprice]

I saw this news in BBC today. Currency is manipulated. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32817114

[BobbyT]

Hey botrak, seems you are having little problem with this easy stuffs 3pushes, 3days circle and 3levels can never be changed by the fox. he can only dirty the pattern that is why we need to read and learn everyday for us to see them.

talking about levels and pushes, time frames differs but they are desame pattern 4hr time-frame tends to take longer time to complete the pattern than 1hr and 15mins.

A complete 3levels in 1hr time-frame is a level 1 in 4hr time-frame
Another complete 3levels in 1hr time-frame is a 4hr second level.

when you have 3days of rise/fall in price, the next day usually reverses to level one of 4hr. so it keeps repeating for level 2 of 4hr.
hope you understand the scope so it takes many daily candles to complete a 4hr 3levels depending on the pairs movement. generally, pattern repeats itself everyday it left for us to understand and locate them.

Sympathy,

I have been thinking about this over the past few days and always seem to get lost haha.

Lets say we are in an upwards H4 cycle. In between each level price retraces or ranges.
So we have had level 1 up complete on H4. This holds 3 levels up on H1.
Now where I get lost is what happens now?
Price may retrace or range on H4 for the next week or so. If it retraces, should we expect a 3-day cycle down on H1. If it ranges are we looking for choppy price action for a few days (after all, we are at level 3 on H1 now after completing level 1 on H4).

This confuses me, a lot Especially when patterns are dirtied up. I have trouble seeing through the filth

Anyways, thanks for reading,
BobbyT

[seanyd]

Hey botrak, seems you are having little problem with this easy stuffs 3pushes, 3days circle and 3levels can never be changed by the fox. he can only dirty the pattern that is why we need to read and learn everyday for us to see them.

talking about levels and pushes, time frames differs but they are desame pattern 4hr time-frame tends to take longer time to complete the pattern than 1hr and 15mins.

A complete 3levels in 1hr time-frame is a level 1 in 4hr time-frame
Another complete 3levels in 1hr time-frame is a 4hr second level.

when you have 3days of rise/fall in price, the next day usually reverses to level one of 4hr. so it keeps repeating for level 2 of 4hr.
hope you understand the scope so it takes many daily candles to complete a 4hr 3levels depending on the pairs movement. generally, pattern repeats itself everyday it left for us to understand and locate them.

Sympathy,

I have been thinking about this over the past few days and always seem to get lost haha.

Lets say we are in an upwards H4 cycle. In between each level price retraces or ranges.
So we have had level 1 up complete on H4. This holds 3 levels up on H1.
Now where I get lost is what happens now?
Price may retrace or range on H4 for the next week or so. If it retraces, should we expect a 3-day cycle down on H1. If it ranges are we looking for choppy price action for a few days (after all, we are at level 3 on H1 now after completing level 1 on H4).

This confuses me, a lot Especially when patterns are dirtied up. I have trouble seeing through the filth

Anyways, thanks for reading,
BobbyT

Hey Guys this is the way I look at it 3 days of Lower lows today I was looking for stophunt low rise went up about 115 pips got an easy 50 outa that , hope this helps , I am learning the higher time frames my self , so it gets tricky , we are looking for high probability scenarios tricks and patterns of the fox , the truth is in the charts and CJ`s posts along with Dudests and other key contributors Kwan and Xrismak to name but a few

Screenshot (5).png

[fiox]

I saw this news in BBC today. Currency is manipulated. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32817114

CJ repeats this for years

[dudest]

Hi peeps,

Sorry i've not been able to post alot of late, I try to catch up with the posts whenever i can (have a few replies pending)

Trading-wise, I'm currently in a bit of DD. Keep seeing EUR buys, hopefully they will pan out.

USDJPY looked like a nice sell yesterday evening ( didn't take it though, so as to manage my margin )

Will post up charts when i can

Cheers

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[ZumZum]

Dudest how do you see AN 1hr formation. looks like CJS first chart.

Is this what you mean? :

AUDNZDH4.png