Targetting Trending Probability Seasons for profit

[optionhk]

A lot of educators, including those with credentials of having worked for insitutions in the past, are making money selling this seasonal pattern concept, mostly for equities.

The reasoning is simple and understable:

Why should anyone invest in a currency market when carry trades have ceased to be of any value to traders?
Currency market in any case never pays dividends? So how are the hedge fund managers or institutions are compensated for investing in currency market?

A host of such questions are raised and seasonal patterns are supposed to provide some answers as to
how the hedge managers act in concert - not necessarily knowingly. Sort of a herd mentality.

On a personal level, I have benefitted from one such seasonal pattern when CAD.USD is traded in certain months winning 8 times out of 10 times in the last 15 years. Whether this is because of the oil supply and demand pattern during those months that play their part or it is something the currency market itself is triggering? I have yet to find out.

Similar pattern exists in terms of USD.Yen, which I have not tried personally but do know it works.

Let us attempt to unravel these seasonal patterns by using simple indicators. I hope this trend-finding vehicle attracts a few travellers (traders) and drivers (coders).

This forum has brilliant coders and I would need their support for developing two indicators first and ultimately for coding an EA once indicators and a system is in place.

(1) to filter winning/losing trades in a selected period manually or by backtesting.
(2) to visualise this on Empty4 to conduct trades
(3) create EA to do live trades after having developed basic analytical indicators.

I am a real-trader and have some understanding of how Excel or Empty4 programmes work but I have no coding skills.

For ( 1 ) I am attaching the database some traders are using. A lot of Empty4 unlimited demo platform providers free historical data for up to last 20 years. If an indicator can be coded to analyse the historic database, excellent. If not have to rely on Excel/VBA sheet with necessary formulas to identifying probable times to trade.

Seasonal pattern database open price close price base.jpg

(2) Need to have a another Empty4 indicator which

(a) Possibly sets up yearly candles of 518400 though Empty4 has no yearly TF. Chart space can best be utilised in such a case.

Yearly candle overlay with multi-year cloud in separate window.jpg

seasonal charts cad.jpg

(b) creates sub-windows of different time-frame charts (Line charts) in one Main Chart. If the Main chart time frame is in M1 windows then it creates separate linked windows of M5,M30,H4,D,W,M TFs. I have seen such indicators.

Line Chart MTF SW CJ.png

(c) Draws different vertical datelines based on puts of time.date.year (from and to) for each subwindow by using a single user input GUI and draws trendlines on left or right.

How to use different time frame line charts CJA.png

Line Chart MTF SW CJ.png

(b) Prints on Main chart and subwindows overlays (big candle outlines or highlighters for candles and line outlines or clouds beneath lines) based on input of TF, datelines and format of big candles display and taking into account chart space limitations.

How will I use them?

I will open H1 chart using vertical timelines, say from Dec 1, 2015 to February 1, 2016
and subwindows of
H4 showing same dates with overlays of H4DWM candles
DI showing same dates with overlays of WM and Y (if possible) candles
W showing different dates (10-year analysis January 1, 2006 to Feb 1, 2016) with overlays of M and Y (if possible) candles
M showing different dates (15-year analysis January 1, 2001 to Feb 1,2016) with overlays of Y (if possible)

Attached are a few pictures of what is being done using different indicators.

3 year D1 line charts lined up in sub-windows.png

Timelines drawan for USDCADMonthly.png