My certain system (under development)

kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

Hi all,
This is my second topic in the forum, this topic will summarize my way to pin point the trend using MA Ribbon, Stochastic(indicator attached, in post #4 http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 00#p137300), and finally the fractal.

I would like to share the system in every detail and hope someone can improve it and finally make an ea.

Before I start, I would like to thanks Steve and Bod who provide such good stuff and place for me to learn forex. Also, thanks to tnavi with his thread HGI+Mas http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =88&t=4597, I have been inspired by the ma system.

Let's begin.... with some history and background.
I started trading in 2009, and lost money. I read, learn a lot of but still lack of confidence due to:
1, the indicators might somehow lagging, or the market is to volatile which kills the signal.
2, sometimes, how to view the market is a bit subjective, especially of trendline, support & resistance.

I was thinking how can I master my skill to get more confidence from one system. Further more, I want to define a more mechanical way to trade in a highly confident way. That is the aim of this thread.

Good luck all, will post the details in next post.
:smile: :smile: :smile: :smile:
Last edited by kenykau on Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:58 am, edited 3 times in total.
kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

The System - Part 1
Fractal Trendlines
The system uses fractal to form trendlines of deformed M/W sharps for entry signals after previous bar breaking those trendlines.
In the below chart, please notice the orange part:
EURUSDH1.png
When drawing the upper trend line, I use the pattern HLHLH (H: Higher Fractal, L: Lower Fractal) as following
EURUSDH1-TL1.png
So as the lower trendline, LHLHL
EURUSDH1-TL2.png
We will continue the process whenever new fractal is form. But one thing should bear in mind that due to the formation for fractal, there will be sometime few upper(lower) fractals formed without any lower(upper) fractal in between. The gray part as follow:
EURUSDH1-factal without counter part.png
In this situation, we will only use the highest/lowest fractal of the row, ignore the others.(Those fractals are useful, but I just leave it this time) The illustration is as follow:
EURUSDH1-Illustrate.png
The blue line is only for visual illustration of how i recognize the trendlines(black and red), not useful.
The X is the fractal we ignored.

This is the principal to form the trendlines. You can view HLHLH as a deformed W (sometimes, it forms a very nice W), and LHLHL as a deformed M.


MAIN IDEA:
When price up break the upper trendline(black), the price has a high probability to go up, when price down break the lower trendline(red), the price has a high probability to go down.

To confirming the break, I use the close price of the current bar.
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Last edited by kenykau on Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

The System - Part 1.1
Combining MA Ribbon
Now combining the MA Ribbons from tnavi with his thread HGI+Mas http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =88&t=4597, which is WMA(40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110).
We will have a picture like following:
EURUSDH1-Illustration.png
We might, somehow, get a good trade when the price breaks the line, but we are not sure which is good or bad. The above seems to be good trades. But i assure you that in sometimes it fails, like:
EURUSDH1-bad.png
Notice the red upper arrow trendline, the price fall and break, but next bar, going up far far away from the last close.

I have found I made a mistake in the above chart, the correct line should be this:
EURUSDH1-bad-corrected.png
CAN YOU TELL ME WHY???

How to avoid? I will introduce the stochastic in next post.
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kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

The System - Part 2
Stochastic
I read the idea to use multiple stochastic in forexfactory, the credit is for the originally creator, but I forget who is the creator.

Same idea with the MA Ribbon, I use Stochastic(40, 45, 50, 55, 60, 90, 95, 100, 105, 110), I create the indicator for much easier setup.

After putting the indicator in the chart, we will have something like following:
EURUSDH1-stoch.png
Please study carefully, that the stochastic will converge, diverge from time to time. The blue vertical line is indicating the converging for those stochastic lines, I treat this as the price goes to extreme and sooner will reverse. :!!:

The fractal trendlines determine when to enter trade.

Sometimes, we can't found any convergence but the price reversed. How could we do?
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kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

So far, the basic idea is almost there, I would going divide the system into two main categories:
1. Long term safe trading
2. Day trade
Due to this is a manual system, sometimes, I trade with the aid of experience. I would like to ask for your help to improve the system....
kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

Trade - Long Term (Very Long Term)

My method is to traverse from the large timeframe to smaller time frame, to get the safest (hopefully) trade.
Here is my way:
Week --> Day --> H4 --> H1 --> M30 -->M15 (Catch the big big move)
You can apply the way in smaller timeframe(M15-->M5-->M1)

Procedures:
Put everything in the weekly chart:
EURUSDWeekly.png
Next is to found out the convergence, and trendline:
EURUSDWeekly3.png
1: Stochastic converges --> we put a yellow vertical lines to mark the time
2: Upper Fractal Form Confirmed --> we put another vertical lines to mark the time and draw the CORRECT trend line.

Then we go to the daily chart, repeat the step 2, with the confirmation of upper fractal should be the right hand side of the vertical line #2
EURUSDDaily4.png
You can repeat the step 2, until the M1, But I always down to only H4 only.
Once the price is up break the trendline, that is the good chance to Buy....

Next question is how to take profit. In the daily chart, I often spot the lower fractal trend line as the my take profit point. Please find the chart below as the vertical line #4 is the downtrend fractal line confirmation.

The whole trade is more than 3000 pips in a very safe, mechanical way.
The things you need to do is to practice more and more, being more patience and patience.
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kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

Few tricks to talk about.....
In sooner, i will talk about some little trick that will help to improve the successful rate and increase more confidence.
Also will talk about more on smaller timeframe.
Type too much today.......
kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

Thanks Steve help me to reserve the blocks.... :good: :good: :good:
I will talk about smaller time frames and other combination of trading method. Please feel free to add your comments.
If you feel waiting Weekly chart to converge is too long and painful, you can take into M1 chart to look at whether the stochastic is converge together higher than 90 or lower than 10.
Ok, let see the GBPUSD M1 chart:
GBPUSDM1.png
You can see the whole range is less than 400pips, with a lot of swings. The Ribbon is compressed. A ranging session in M1. This happens in other timeframes. Let's do the tricks to see if the system can help.

The setup is to add one more MS-MTF indicator to the chart, setting the Timeframe to next higher timeframe, in M1, the next higher timeframe is M5.
1. Look at the M5 Stochastic, to see whether it is converged or not and M5 Stochastic trend, up or down?
2. Point out the M1 Stochastic Converge and over 90 or below 10
3. Draw trendline and wait for the breakout
4. Drawing counter trendline, for take profit.
Following is my chart (I remove RIBBON for clear visual)
GBPUSDM1-2.png
IMPORTANT NOTES:
Each break out shall be in the RIGHT HAND SIDE of the converged over 90/below 10 extremes.

Point to note:
I recommend NOT to trade only one or two STOCHASTIC extreme in the ob/os level(90/10). As you can see on the chart, the trades may have profit with little room only.

I recommend to trade in M5 or above.
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Last edited by kenykau on Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

In my previous post, I talked about range session, how about in the trend session?
I use the GBPUSD M30, with M30, H1 Stochastic, Ribbon, to illustrate in the trend session entry and exit. Here are the general picture.
GBPUSDM30.png

The whole process is as follow:
GBPUSDM30-1.png
The chart is a bit massive
1. Check M30, H1 stochastic condition
2. Draw the correct Fractal Trend Line as the Sell Trigger at the RIGHT hand side of the extreme.
3. Wait for price break down.
4. Initial SL, the extreme (You can use your own).
5. Update the SL when ever the correct counter fractal
6. If the close price up break the SL Trigger, Close Position(s) at the Opening.

The Re-entry should be as follow:
GBPUSDM30-2.png
I will leave the two down red arrow in the chart. talk it next time.
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Last edited by kenykau on Sat Mar 19, 2016 12:22 am, edited 2 times in total.
kenykau
Trader
Posts: 34
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:33 am

My certain system (under development)

Post by kenykau »

It seems that the thread is not very active. :cry: :cry: :cry:
But anyway, I still talk about a little bit more to help for trading.
This part is not relevant for the system, but aid for notification.

NOTIFICATION PART
I am a bit lazy person, I can't stick with the computer all the time, it miss a lot of chance. How could we solve the problem? I used to use email notification, then when ever the signal occur, I can check use my phone. Put the problem is a bit late, especially for those confirmations in m1 and m5.

Until the Empty4 support the webrequest, I found a very quick way to help me to send instant notification to my android (iphone and other tablet, or surface too) .

I use Pushbullet + node.js, which might a bit technical, but it works and helps.

Step 1. Install Pushbullet app in your devices
Step 2. Get your access token in pushbullet's website & your device identity (you can get the identity by api)
Step 3. Install node.js + Hapi.js + pushbullet (npm) https://www.npmjs.com/package/pushbullet
Step 4. Add your host in Empty4, allow it communicate in Empty4 codes.
Step 5. Write mql4 (expert + script only, indicator not allow to call WebRequest)

Now, it is ready. Consider the following server code (node.js + Hapi.js + pushbullet)
index.js

Code: Select all

'use strict';
const Hapi = require('hapi');
const Good = require('good');
const Pushbullet = require('pushbullet');
const server = new Hapi.Server();
server.connection({ port: 80 });
const token = '[color=#FF0000]Your API Key from Pushbullet[/color]';
const device = '[color=#FF0000]Get from Pushbullet or fro api[/color]';

server.route({
    method: 'POST',
    path: '/reg',
    handler:function(req, rep){
        var pusher = new Pushbullet(token);
        var msg = req.payload.Account;  //<-- every details your sent is in the req.payload
        pusher.note(device, 'Empty4 Notice', msg, function(error, response){
            console.log(error);
        });
        rep('MSG Sent!');
    }
});
server.register({
    register: Good,
    options: {
        reporters: [{
            reporter: require('good-console'),
            events: {
                response: '*',
                log: '*'
            }
        }]
    }
}, (err) => {
    if (err) {
        throw err; // something bad happened loading the plugin
    }
    server.start((err) => {
        if (err) {
           throw err;
        }
        server.log('info', 'Server running at: ' + server.info.uri);
    });
});
In the command prompt type node index.js

Test.mq4 //Mql4 script

Code: Select all

void OnStart()
{
   initialize();
}
void initialize()
{
   string req[];
   char data[], result[];
   string header;

   Encoding("Account", IntegerToString(AccountNumber()), req);
   Encoding("Symbol", Symbol(), req);
   Encoding("Balance", DoubleToStr(AccountBalance(),2),req);

   StringToCharArray(Stringtify(req), data);

   int res = WebRequest("POST", "http://localhost/reg", NULL, NULL, 300, data, ArraySize(data), result, header);
   Print(CharArrayToString(result));
   
}
void Encoding(string key, string val, string &arr[])
{
   string result = StringConcatenate(key, "=", val);
   int size =  ArraySize(arr);
   ArrayResize(arr,size+1);
   arr[size] = result;
}
string Stringtify(string &arr[])
{
   int size = ArraySize(arr);
   string temp="";
   if(size==1)
      temp = arr[0];
   else
      for(int i=0; i<size; i++)
      {
         StringAdd(temp, arr[i]);
         if(i<size-1)  
            StringAdd(temp, "&");
      }
   return temp;
}
Last edited by kenykau on Tue Mar 22, 2016 6:38 am, edited 2 times in total.
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