It seems that the primary issue to fight against is the occurrence of sudden, vicious moves that travel gazillions of pips in just mere minutes. As we have absolutely no way of predicting which direction these'll go (otherwise we'd be instant billionaires), there however may be a few measures to think about.
We basically have 2 'sorts' of spike. A first one typically associated with 'news announcements'. Have a look at the horrendous gap NZDUSD left last week:
NZDUSD.JPG
Looking at the economic calendar 'explains' and could prevent being in the market at that point in time when heavy announcements are due.
NZDUSD calendar.JPG
So in order to avoid getting the dancers crushed by these horrendous events, we could let the GridMaster work in the following way.
Imagine a high-impact news event is due in 2 hours for either one of a pair's currency.
- 1. Specify a 1st far away pre-event period. E.g. 2 hours beforehand. From this point on GridMaster will try to keep newly-fired trades at a minimum and try to exit the entire position in profit or break-even as quickly as possible. When it does, GridMaster then prohibits the GridDancers from trading until X minutes after the announcement.
2. When time passes over a 2nd base - e.g. 45 minutes before the time of announcement - and the Master does not manage to exit the entire position at BE or in profit, we cut everything and proudly incur the loss. After all; It is worth paying for avoidance of potential whipsaw.
In attachment you can find a news indicator that is directly linked to forexfactory's calendar. Perhaps the code may come in handy if you do try to use any of this Rene. Inititiating the safety-mechanism is to be particularly recommended during red high-impact news events containing the words "rate", "monetary policy", etc.
Now that this is covered, what do we do with these..
GBPUSD.JPG
This is the second sort of spike I mentioned. GBPUSD mysteriously and out of nowhere flew through the roof in under 1 minute. There is absolutely NO WAY to have these predicted with any sort of indicator - leading or lagging. I tried analysing these mysterious and spontaneous events in the hopes of finding common characteristics. At first it seemed they occurred when volume levels were suspiciously low and price wasn't moving at all. Threw bollinger bands on there as I thought they could help finding the 'silent minutes before the storm' scenarios. Studying many of these I conclude that it is absolutely not feasible to do something with both volume and contractions of bollinger bands. If anything it will inhibit the capacity of the griddancers unneccesarily.
The sole thing that does have the potential to emerge as deus ex machina, is the
spread. When the spread starts to behave suspiciously, we could demand the GridMaster to just cut the position superfast
without exception and suspend trading for X amounts of minutes. My hope lies in the spread starting to show irregularity just a minute or two before that spike gets unleashed. Unfortunately I couldn't find an indicator that displays historical spreads. Therefore I'd like to make a request. In attachment I'm also including a spread monitoring indicator. It tracks a high, low and an average if I'm not mistaken. If your CPU allows it, put this on every chart you use for the GridDancers. Preferably on M1 as this is the shortest possible timeframe for us to access. This way we will be able to analyse spread behaviour of as many pairs as we can and hopefully witness their ability to forewarn us.
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