KeithM » Mon Sep 12, 2016 2:25 am wrote:
Very interesting! Do you think that they are reversing because of the time of the year? I am new to forex but it would make sense to take your approach during these quieter times
Keith
Probably not for this thread, but there are times during a 24 period when price reversals usually occur. It doesn't always happen this way every day, but they are times to watch for.
1. Red news events: red news events for each currency usually happen at the same time in the day (e.g. USD and CAD news often at NY market open, or GDP news at 1.5 hours into the London session). Look at Forex Factory for red/orange news events.
2. Frankfurt fakeout and London Open - Frankfurt opens (7 am GMT) 1 hour prior to London and often (not always) you will see a reversal on the London open or in the first hour. Some people wait one hour into the London session, after the initial balance, to start trading. There is a generally held feeling that Frankfurt fades London, London fades NY, NY fades Asia and Asia fades Frankfurt/London. This sometimes happens, but not always.
3. NY Open-Wall Street Open-Post NY Cut - The period from the NY open at 8:30 EST (most USD news here); the Wall Street open at 9:30 EST and the US style options expiry at 10 am EST is usually the most volatile period of the day and the place where reversals can occur. Large options expiring can impact price.
4. Other times to watch for - London close, when those traders are closing their books for the day. Also at 3:00-4:00 pm EST when institutions balance their portfolios. The markets go a bit dead when the London and NY session traders take lunch

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5. Anyway, I think you get the idea.