SR/SD and the PA that describes it

simond · Post by **simond** » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:21 am

Lowphat » Sun Sep 18, 2016 1:26 am wrote:
simond » Sat Sep 17, 2016 2:45 am wrote:
Took another look at this pair. Haven't watched EURCAD for some time. Be interested to see how our analysis compares. U wanna post up some D1/M30 charts as well?
I usually only have 1 or 2 zones on any chart and it's the ones i deduce having the most unfilled orders on.
came really close to shorting the daily when it was in the zone.

Was anticipating a buy on the retest of the decision point, around the beginning of August on Daily. But the setup never really looked that great:

EURCADDaily.png

I took another look at this pair after your post and have re-jigged my own charts. Daily, I'll be watching the retest of this decision point (if indeed it restests) to see if a buy sets up:

EURCADDaily-2.png

Would like to try and sell it down there in the meantime. M30 looks interesting. Fresh supply zone up top, a decision point just above that area of imbalance that you originally highlighted. This D1 SR where price is currently sat will feed in to play somehow, but there's no clear picture on that just yet my side. Will set some alerts for the week ahead and see what gives

EURCADM30.png

simond · Post by **simond** » Mon Sep 19, 2016 8:41 am

simond » Sun Sep 18, 2016 10:21 am wrote:
Was anticipating a buy on the retest of the decision point, around the beginning of August on Daily. But the setup never really looked that great:

I took another look at this pair after your post and have re-jigged my own charts. Daily, I'll be watching the retest of this decision point (if indeed it restests) to see if a buy sets up:

Would like to try and sell it down there in the meantime. M30 looks interesting. Fresh supply zone up top, a decision point just above that area of imbalance that you originally highlighted. This D1 SR where price is currently sat will feed in to play somehow, but there's no clear picture on that just yet my side. Will set some alerts for the week ahead and see what gives

Price has continued straight down and just hit the daily decision point. It's PA reading from herein - on daily of course.

Screenshot_1.png

simond · Post by **simond** » Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:04 pm

GBPJPY H1 there's something afoot. This point of inflection has just withstood a second test and PA is starting to look interesting.
Watch and wait.

Screenshot_5.png

GoldenFinger · Post by **GoldenFinger** » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:57 am

good to see trader that use naked chart, just curious are u trading off short term chart? whats your average tp

simond · Post by **simond** » Wed Oct 26, 2016 11:15 am

GoldenFinger » Wed Oct 26, 2016 10:57 am wrote:good to see trader that use naked chart, just curious are u trading off short term chart? whats your average tp

I'm assessing multiple TFs but mainly to ensure that when I buy for example, I'm not buying directly into a higher TF resistance or supply. In terms of the actual TF traded; I just trade the TF that I see a signal and then carry out my TP analysis in that TF.

In terms of average TP I don't have one. There's no fixed way regarding this; it's very much down to prevailing market conditions - in simplest terms, if I buy the retest of a "fresh" H1 demand zone (think kind of "double bottom" formation) then ideally I'll either aim to TP at the opposing H1 supply zone, or any area to the left that structurally suggests resistance is going to form, or if price moves really well, trail behind fresh bullish structure.

simond · Post by **simond** » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:26 pm

What I was hoping would set up on GBPJPY H1 overnight has actually set up on EURJPY H1. The point of inflection has tested and left a nice fresh H1 demand zone in its wake.

I will still scalp EURJPY in either direction but a move down to 113.40 (where my H1 alert is set) would be a nice area to watch for bullish PA.

Obviously no one can predict if this is going to happen, but SD has told us one thing for certain, unfilled H1 buy orders are sitting at 113.40, and more importantly that area is also the most recent H1 bullish swing zone. Whether or not the buyers can overcome the sellers at that price, the PA will tell that story, if as and when price arrives.

(the x marked at the top of that pin is just there for my own reference, it's not a target)

EURJPYH1.png

simond · Post by **simond** » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:37 pm

Some confirmed resistance USDCAD M15.

Will watch how the PA plays out then potentially short it.

USDCADM15.png

simond · Post by **simond** » Wed Oct 26, 2016 2:39 pm

simond » Wed Oct 26, 2016 1:37 pm wrote:Some confirmed resistance USDCAD M15.

Will watch how the PA plays out then potentially short it.

I still makes mistakes. Took the short entry on M5 and managed it as an M5 trade when there was no apparent reason to at the time. Result is entry got nicked out just before price tanked.

No worries. Market offers no end of opportunities every day. The single most important thing is to keep on the right side of the analysis and journal everything. And go looking for the next trade.

USDCADM15.png

GoldenFinger · Post by **GoldenFinger** » Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:16 am

From my understanding are u trading in S&R that had strong rejection previously which indicated the possibility of unfilled order left?

hmm, this is something new to me, anyway i have just entered yesterday short usd/mxn, uc, uj

if u can trade longer tf and have higher tp and sl, u may be able to improve ur trading further, and learn how to neutralize the house edge and skew the possibility in your favor

good trading

simond · Post by **simond** » Thu Oct 27, 2016 8:26 am

GoldenFinger » Thu Oct 27, 2016 2:16 am wrote:From my understanding are u trading in S&R that had strong rejection previously which indicated the possibility of unfilled order left?

hmm, this is something new to me, anyway i have just entered yesterday short usd/mxn, uc, uj

if u can trade longer tf and have higher tp and sl, u may be able to improve ur trading further, and learn how to neutralize the house edge and skew the possibility in your favor

good trading

If you look at that upper yellow line as I originally drew it, people will often (mistakenly in my view) call that resistance before price has actually tested and confirmed it as resistance by making some form of PA. The PA I'm looking for (in the USDCAD example) was a bearish swing-point that is manifest evidence of "pro" sellers (aka "supply") coming into the market. When I say "pro" sellers I'm referring to the money that is actually able to turn the market. Once I see evidence of fresh supply I look to trade in the same direction as it (short obviously), using PA to judge my entry.

Regarding the TF of trading etc etc, let me ask you a question. Here's an example of a short trade. Which pair is it and which TF?

Screenshot_1.png