Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

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RisklessPips
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by RisklessPips »

SteveHopwood » Sat Aug 12, 2017 8:07 pm wrote:I see now why you were querying the MPTM code Charles. I have uploaded a fixed version to http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... ?f=21&t=64

:xm:
Thanks very much Steve. Much appreciated :good:

Right you all now know where to get a fixed version of the MPTM.

EDIT 22/8/17 - These setfiles are no longer required in this method unless you are manual trading (i.e not using GTWV EA) and require MPTM to manage your trades


Below are the setfiles I am using for 1:100 and 1:500 leverage brokers.
500-H1.set
500-D1.set
100-H4.set
100-H1.set
100-D1.set
I am testing differences in BE pips, jump and trailing stops to try and find the sweetspot for the different TF's.

For instance, my test 1:100 leverage broker is a commission broker and I have a feeling their pricing is "smoother" than the spread 1:500 broker. For this reason I am testing trailing stops with the former and jumping stops with the latter.

Play around with these settings and please report your observations and post queries.

I will send the trade entry scripts to anyone who PM's me - but if you can hold your horses I have put out a request on the coders forum to see if we can automate trade entry with an EA. EDIT 22/8/17 - I will no longer send scripts out


This will manage a manual part of the process and change the operation of GT&WV slightly but positively.
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by RisklessPips »

Ahead of Monday, for anyone intending to trial GT&WV trading strategy I have a few pointers and cautions

1) The Stop loss you apply in MPTM must give seed trades enough room to move AND accommodate any WV trades into the bargain, by allowing these to mitigate against the seed's loss AND make a profit.

I allow my seeds on a micro account (at all TF's) to lose about 10 USD - On the H1 TF works out to about 100 pips.

2) Ensure your break even setting is not too close to price else you will have a large number of trades closing at or near 0 after you factor in commission, swaps and spread. You want trades to achieve BE when price has moved on a little from trade entry point to give it (price) room to fluctuate

3) When you look at your Empty4 terminal closed trades a visual check should show that a proportion of your trades are closing at TP by colour green. This proportion is not a hard and fast number but if none of my trades is hitting TP, then I know my expectations as set in MPTM are unrealistic (too high). (Remember we are ultra realists and we take what is available not what we would like). Again you don't want every trade to hit TP, because then you are setting the profit bar too low and will not easily achieve the income you need. - Test, test, test

4) MPTM also allows you to set a basket TP level. For H1 and H4 I set this to about 15 - 20 USD. For the D1 I set it somewhat higher. It is gratifying when MPTM closes out your basket of trades for your daily income target in one hit EDIT 22/8/17 - GTWV EA does not have basket processing :cry:

5) Try out jump stops with spread brokers whose prices seem to move more due to "fluctuating spreads". I use trailing stops with commission brokers. Which is better is I think, more a personal thing than provable by hard numbers.

6) Ensure the support resistance zones you draw where you will input your WV (contra) trade are as accurate as you can get them to be. In the early days I did not do this and the whipsaws on USDCAD were not good. If price has not gone beyond its recent S/R you cannot confidently say it has changed direction.

7) Most important - Price moves in its own wonderful way over which we have no control - we merely follow. GT&WV can add a large number of trades depending on the lead we get from price. On a small micro account the problem becomes falling margin levels due to numerous open trades. This can lead to margin calls.

Be warned use the lot sizes and trade numbers indicated and even on a 1:100 leverage account your margin level should be above 200% most of the time.

There is one issue I have not addressed of how to allow trades to decay elegantly closing your open positions. I will do so in the days to come as more people trial out the method.

Finally the EA I am proposing will alleviate some of these issues raised her - I will explain how and what to do when it is available, tested and ready to roll out.

Enjoy. :clap: :yahoo:
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by dakiwi »

Very interesting thread. Good work.
Perhaps the entry point would be better found if as good currency strength meter was used. Trading in the direction of the strong currency move (Not pair move) when good momentum is shown should get better results??
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by SteveHopwood »

dakiwi » Sun Aug 13, 2017 10:23 pm wrote:Very interesting thread. Good work.
Perhaps the entry point would be better found if as good currency strength meter was used. Trading in the direction of the strong currency move (Not pair move) when good momentum is shown should get better results??
dakiwi
You have missed the point entirely. Start again at post 1 and read with more care.

I am watching this thread folks, and will deal with dimwits with my customary enthusiasm.

I think this thread has a future. I will pull the plug if I prove to be wrong.

In the meantime, do not waste my time dragging me here to read dimwitted posts by people who could not be arsed to read it properly. You will not enjoy my reaction.

Capiche?
Read the effing manual, ok?

Afterprime is the official SHF broker. Read about them at https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=175790#p175790.

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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by dakiwi »

Si certo, but since I am down under maybe I see things upside down.
This from the text:

"Price is an amalgamation of disparate and demonstrably unpredictable stakeholder positions in the currency market and in the real world economy. Ultra realism requires the trader to accept this environment and understand that they cannot PREDICT future price action (momentum, direction, level) with any degree of certainty for any length of time.

Gravy Trains and Weather Vanes does not try to predict future price action. This methodology only takes trades once given overt approval by price itself.

Price is continuously adjusting. Misreads will happen.

Price is an amalgamation of huge and variable positions held in the real world by different parties.

Even if price demonstrates and “shows” the trader a particular entry and direction it will still on occasion reverse due to the unpredictable actions of the parties who determine that price. "

so true.
But is the price trend not dependent upon the difference between the total limit orders Buy vs Sell? Politics aside.
I was not trying to suggest a definite entry point but rather to look at a potential trade only in the direction of the strongest pair at that moment in time and then apply the GTWV strategy. Would that not give you the best chance of a profitable trade?
I await the clip round the ears.
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by RisklessPips »

dakiwi » Mon Aug 14, 2017 12:23 am wrote:Very interesting thread. Good work.
Perhaps the entry point would be better found if as good currency strength meter was used. Trading in the direction of the strong currency move (Not pair move) when good momentum is shown should get better results??
dakiwi
Hi dakiwi

This method does not care what direction price moves in. The concept of "better entry point" is one used by traders who believe they can know where price is going.

Even if price "shows" you its hand in any number of indicators or strength meters it can and does tease you and reverse precisely because of those unknowable forces in the market and real world that taken together determine its level.

Hard reality says get into the trench anyway you have to and manage the situation from in there !

Charles
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Post by RisklessPips »

dakiwi » Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:16 am wrote: Would that not give you the best chance of a profitable trade?
dakiwi
Notwithstanding the rest of your post this one sentence needs attention.

Price is a continuous flow derived from stakeholder interests balancing the two forces of supply and demand for a currency.

Traders who dip in and out of the market trying to pick "a profitable trade" will struggle !


The flow of price dictates that you must be in the trenches pretty much on a continuous basis. You will hit some home runs and you will be KO'd every once in a while.

It really is a battle to make money - change your mindset and approach - see the flow for what it is and not a place to cherry pick winners bypassing the lemons through the use of some indicator.

Find your winners and lemons by listening and following price continuously.

Charles
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by RisklessPips »

Can you see the stacked (WV long) trades mitigating against the initial Short seed ?

The seed's SL is at the top (about 114.300)

The gap between SL and price gives us room and TIME to add WV trades as long as price moves in that long direction AND makes each trade "approved" by breaking it even.

CHFJPY H1 WV Trades.png
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by dakiwi »

Points noted. Thanks for the further explanation. Better than another clip round the ears from the guru
:)
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Post by RisklessPips »

AUDJPY - Is price about to turn a long seed into a Weather Vane by crossing AND closing beyond the S/R zone ???? I don't know (and I don't care). Only price does but I will be riding it down obediently if it tells me to.
AUDJPY seed about to become a WV.png
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