Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

[RisklessPips]

If when price closes on the other side of our support / resistance level, is our acceptance that price is now going wv, then does it stand to reason that we should close the original direction rather than wait for the sl?

LW

Never second guess price is my advice

A while ago I asked is price your friend or foe. I never gave my answer but I like to think of price as a mercenary guide.

Price will tell you what is going on and it will show you what to do, but you can never be sure what it will do next because it goes towards the better paying side in this trench warfare (sellers or buyers) and you cannot know in advance who that will be at any given moment.

To get out of the skirmish early (ahead of a predetermined SL) because price has breached an S/R zone is to suggest you know it won't retrace and go in your first direction.

Get out at SL because that is where your risk tolerance fails - nowhere else - That is a disciplined, realistic exit !

Charles

[RisklessPips]

Charles, there are thingies that mathematicians, statisticians et al go in for that drive me nuts because they look like pretentious bollocks to me. You quote this:

(No 11 above) = (1+ (Avg win / avg loss)) * win rate - 1

Given the left hand side of the equation, what I coded was:
(No 11 above) = (Avg win / avg loss) * win rate

So what is it with the preceding +1 and the succeeding -1?

Please do explain how my simple equation fell fowl of some abstruse mathematical requirement.

As a big ideas man on things like expectancy, I'm blaming Van Tharp for this

I took my spreadsheet and using fictitious numbers the + 1 / -1 arrangement delivered a different answer to the one without - Why - I have to admit I don't mathematically understand (or care) - What I do care about is if it is negative my strategy is not delivering !

Charles

expectancy.pdf

[RisklessPips]

GTWV and Rene's Trade Report

Under the radar but now available if full technicolor is Rene's updated Trade Report available here

After talking to Rene this updated mainstay of reports at SHF now also shows you two new items at the bottom of the report for expectancy.

To see these just make showextendedresults in the setfile to true.

The differences between this and the GTWV Analyser are:

1) The analyser shows a break down of the figures per pair traded, the report shows only a consolidated figure (although if you filter at a pair level you get one pair's numbers at a time)

2) The report continues to show all the other information it always has which is not included in the analyser.

This update is not just for GTWV. It is for anyone seriously interested in knowing if their strategy is long term viable as a profit making proposition. If those two numbers are positive - show us and tell us how your strategy is doing it

Charles

[RisklessPips]

Results W/E Sept 8 2017

Summary - Losing Week

The week started with gapping prices especially on the Asian pairs and that set the tone for the rest of the week.

The markets for almost all pairs I am trading were very choppy and until mid week when I started adding new manager types to manage different market conditions I was whipsawed like a carpenter at a wood sawing contest.

During the week the analyser made its appearance and it has some important revelations for me leading into next week.

1) AUDJPY - is not performing. - See the numbers.

2) GBPUSD and USDCAD both had positive expectancy numbers. Even tho the average win for both was lower than the average loss the win rate was about 70%. This suggests to me I need to work my managers so that I get about 70/30 win loss rate. That is the target for this coming week.

3) Overall GTWV at H4 (since I opened the 500 USD demo account) is losing 6 cents per dollar traded (-5.55%) or 21 cents per trade. - This is not a huge loss and given the number of trades taken it gives me encouragement and room for improvement now that I know what I have to attend to.

As of next week I will start reporting a start of week and an end of week position based on the analyser (and / or trade report) so that my manager setfile tweaks can demonstrate their effectiveness or otherwise.

Results H4.png

Seen from the report.png

Charles

ps - The entire dataset for this account is 360 closed trades. For statistically better reflection of expectancy I would like at least 3 times that number. This will come over time.

[zafh]

Charles, there are thingies that mathematicians, statisticians et al go in for that drive me nuts because they look like pretentious bollocks to me. You quote this:

(No 11 above) = (1+ (Avg win / avg loss)) * win rate - 1

Given the left hand side of the equation, what I coded was:
(No 11 above) = (Avg win / avg loss) * win rate

So what is it with the preceding +1 and the succeeding -1?

Please do explain how my simple equation fell fowl of some abstruse mathematical requirement.

(1+ (Avg win / avg loss)) <<< this is in brackets so it all gets multiplied by win rate.

So

(1+ (Avg win / avg loss)) * win rate - 1 = win rate + (Avg win * win rate / avg loss) -1

[RisklessPips]

GTWV Amended TP Settings

I have changed my GTWV EA Take Profit process so that

If you set use TPAtr to true, GTWV will apply whichever TP is further away from entry price between

Missing TP pips
Calculated TP by ATR

The attachment has the code required if you would like to make this change to your GTWV EA - Replace void InsertTakeProfit(int ticket) starting at about line 1166.

How do i post the changes so that they appear in line ?

TP Changes.txt

Charles

[RisklessPips]

Ahead of market open I am posting the default criteria I am setting for my 4 manager setfiles.

These setfiles are intended to have regard for what I call standard, choppy, slow and momentum price characteristics for the pairs I trade.

I will not change these default settings but as explained in the notes I will use discretion from confluence and supporting sources to micro manage individual pairs if appropriate.

I was too aggressive last week in tightening my SL and I do not expect my expectancy numbers to change very much this week because I now have historical data to overcome however the weekly numbers next Friday will show what my defaults will achieve and if they are moving me towards the sweet spot.

manager defaults.pdf

Charles

[RisklessPips]

GTWV - Management Dashboard

The image below shows my GTWV micro management dashboard - (Rene's work is central to this )

Here is how I am using it to enhance the work of the EA by manual micro intervention.

1) Trade Report - This shows me the new extended results for expectancy. By reference to these figures I can slowly modify the components to gradually start delivering positive feedback and move towards the sweetspot.

I also use the EA analyser to see individual pair results - and as a result of this review I have decided to stop trading AUDJPY. It has a character that is impacting overall strategy figures disproportionately and negatively.

2) - PoM - This gives me a feel for what the pairs I am trading are doing collectively and individually with reference to volatility right now. Using this information I can add discretionary manual stacks to take advantage of volatile fast movers. I can also use this information as confluence for 3 below.

3) HGImatrix - This gives me information for pair price characteristics so I can employ an appropriately configured managers (setfile) to the individual pairs at the appropriate time.

GTWV Micro Management Dash.png

Charles

[RisklessPips]

Announcing Holy Graily GTWV (Beta) now available

HGI identifies trends, momentum moves (Rads) and ranging prices with great accuracy.

In order to add more tools (flexibility and versatility) to our toolbox I have therefore incorporated HGI signals into GTWV - creating Holy Graily GTWV.

This EA allows you to pre-determine and set values for BE / TP / SL and Trails you will use whenever HGI indicates a Trend, Rad or Ranging price characteristic for your pairs.

This versatility is critical for allowing the EA to manage existing trades and place new ones in changing market and price conditions appropriately.

The EA uses default settings if HGI signals are not required. The use of HGI signals is switched on and off using a true / false switch in the settings.

The values for settings in the attached code are those I am currently using for H4 whenever I manually identify the different market price characteristics.

To use this code you must have hgi_lib.mqh in your include directory. You do not have to have HGI itself in your configuration.

This code is Beta and although I have done initial testing to ensure the correct variable values are being picked up it requires more rigorous testing as I am sure it cannot be bug free straight off the bat

It is very late here, I will post full details of how to use this EA tomorrow. For now - Enjoy

Edit - 15/9/17 The Holy Graily GTWV has been moved to my post on page 6 for housekeeping.

Charles

[RisklessPips]

Holy Graily GTWV - Setfile variable settings and their use.

If you care to use the Holy Graily GTWV, please read this document carefully - The notes in Red are of particular importance in describing the reasoning and logic behind the values.

GTWV continues, as always, to take trades ONLY on the confirmation of price. However, the context within which it is listening to price alters from moment by moment.

HGI is adept at indicating if the price is trending, in a momentum or just playing around in a channel. The manner in which we listen to price, through our trade management styles, in these different market environments is important for positive outcomes.

It is for these reasons Holy Graily GTWV was conceived and now made real.

If the document is unclear as to useage please ask questions here - they may help someone else.

Thanks
EDIT - 15/9/17 This user guide has now moved to my post on page 6

Charles

NOTE - The settings in this document relate to my installation although the logic behind them is explained. Use your own installation to derive numbers relevant to your trading !

PS - It's worth pointing out GTWV takes a signal from HGI every time some trade management activity is required (for instance moving a SL to BE, trailing the stop, adding a missing SL or TP etc) - This means a trade can be opened under one set of circumstances (e.g RAD) and then if HGI issues a different signal (e.g RANGE) that trade will be managed as per the new conditions.

I have not given the trader options to choose HGI settings because we are not using the signals to trade - we are using them to manage trades and therefore the most recent signal is the only one of relevance to GTWV as it tells us what price conditions exist currently !

PS 2 - Apologies these things are coming to me in pieces
It just occurred to me we no longer need an separate instance of GTWV per pair traded to manage different pair price conditions. One instance of Holy Graily GTWV will manage all trades and apply the correct price character management style based on the pair's symbol.