Peaky Fifo

[cozybooks]

First of all, Gary and Steve, what great work this is on your parts! Peaky Fifo just keeps marching along and I barely have to remember to check on her at all.

We are nearing the mid point in September already. Peaky Fifo with increasing lots, starting at .01 and topping out at .05 continues on its quest. On 9/1 I was up 1155 pips ($ 115.27). Since then my nemesis GBPAUD finally turned around and closed out all three of its trades for a $30 profit.

Ignore the BrentCrud trade in the picture, which I wouldn't be able to do in the U.S. anyway -accidental trade when I was trying to put a trade report template on that pair and instead loaded some old EA which kicked off a trade.

So that leaves me since 9/1 with another $ 84.22 in booked profits on 516 pips. My total profit since starting August 1st is now $ 204.95 in closed trades, which includes all of the overnight swap charges. I am down about $140 in open trades, so for the moment I'm still in the black.

Important considerations: I'm setting a maximum of five trades per pair. If price continued to move out into the stratosphere against me, those trades would have to sit there patiently waiting for a turnaround without any additional help. So my maximum exposure per pair is .15 lots if all five trades are triggered (.01 through .05).
So far my actual maximum exposure has been on GBPAUD, when I had .06 lots open at once on three trades. No other pair has had more than two trades open at once.

Next interesting test will be USDCAD. One buy trade open at 1.2611 running about $38 in the hole, but I now have four buystop trades stretched out waiting for a chance to play. Closest is the .05 buystop at 1.2211.

If I can reach a point of comfort in running the increasing lots strategy live, I would be looking to run it on two $2,500 accounts ($5,000 total investment, which would cover the maximum trade size of .05 with a reasonable amount of equity). I'm going to see how often I have to go beyond three trades. Another consideration would be a $4,000 investment with four maximum trades, or just a $3,000 investment to set up a maximum of three trades per pair. If I go that way, I'll increase the number of pips between trades to compensate.

So far the results are well within my goal of having it generate an average of $100 profit a month while keeping a reasonable drawdown. If it can keep that up, it would be an ultra cool 24% annual return. I can think of worse things to do with $5,000 than to leave it parked in an account generating $1,200 a year in money to withdraw and play with. Of course, I'd feel a lot better if I could park in a Global Prime account, but what can you do?

Happy Trading!

[cozybooks]

Peaky Fifo with increasing varied lots continues its journey. I think the next couple of months will tell me everything I need to know about it, but even though the net profit is low at the moment, I am seeing only positive signs. Closed trades since the last update are another $ 82.91, for a net closed trade profit of $ 287.86.

Down side - I now have 14 trades open over 10 pairs, running about $228 in the hole. None of these, however, have more than three trades open. GBPUSD is the only pair with three trades open, and it looks like it is now headed in the right direction.

Big Plus - USDCAD, which had one trade open and four buystop trades, hit on the .05 and .04 trades, and closed everything for a $ 39.99 profit before the .03 and .02 trades could even open . Even better, Peaky Fifo got rid of those pending trades in the clean up. This is very big - seeing if Peaky Fifo can get out of big hole. Because only the .01 trade had opened, Peaky Fifo was able to hit its profit target only opening just three trades. Also, showing dollars count more than pips, the USDCAD trades finished over 100 pips in the red, but just about $40 profit.

Happy Trading!

[cozybooks]

Note to Steve - Peaky Fifo is slowly gaining steam and might be worthy of more interest. I've attached my set file in case anyone wants to try some variations. I'm looking to continue testing through the end of the year.

Completely hands off since beginning of August. Since my last report, PF has closed another $ 138.94 in trades. Added to the previous $ 287.86 makes a tidy $ 426.80. PF is boring as can be for weeks at a time, but when it does its thing, it's a lot of fun. On my mythical $5,000 account to run this, I would be up 8.6% in closed trades after two months. I have 15 open trades running about $ 75.00 in the red. Max. Drawdown so far has been about $350.00. This is the big item going forward and whether it can stay low enough to be a valid strategy.

1 Hour TF, TP=105 pips, max 5 trades, Followadversemarketwithstoporders=true, marketdistancepips=200, 2 trades constitutes a basket, increasing lots starting at .01. Basket TP is $ 40.00.

I'm wondering if a different approach on the basket TP might be in order, maybe even depending on the trade lots open, but I'm open to advice/suggestions if anyone has them.

Happy trading!!!

[cozybooks]

Lonley times here at Peaky Fifo, even though she keeps churning out the profits. Four more trades closed at 105 pip profits, for a $ 39.95 total.

September closes and my two month testing of Peaky Fifo with increasing lots is now $ 466.75 up on closed trades. I have 13 open trades running $ 94.00 in the hole.

On my $5,000 demo account, this is a cool 9.35% return after two months, with a current draw down of nearly 2%.

I wasn't expecting Peaky Fifo to close so many trades in profit in two months. It will be interesting to see if that was a fluke or just a normal course of events.

Happy Trading!!

[cozybooks]

I'm always trying to think up ways for someone to trade with very minimal money. While watching my long term Peaky Fifo demo keep closing trades at a profit, I had an idea.

Leave the demo running permanently, and every time Peaky Fifo gets as far as opening a third stop order on a pair, I'll put $100 in a live account and set up a manual trade to mimic the Peaky Fifo stop order trade. Right now Peaky Fifo on my demo account has a Sell stop order for EURJPY for 131.764. Peaky Fifo already has two orders open for EURJPY, so this would be a third trade if it hits.

So in my $100 live account, I just created a sell stop order for EURJPY for 131.764. I'm going to set tp at 110 pips, no stop loss.

One of the nice things about Oanda is being able to have a whole bunch of sub-accounts with the ability to move money between them easily. So every time Peaky Fifo sets up a stop order for a new 3rd trade or higher, I'll add another $100 into the account and set up a new stop order. I doubt I'll have to check on this more than once or twice a week. If price moves further out on EURJPY and I get a fourth stop order, as long as the original order hasn't hit, I'll just change the price to match the 4th stop order. If the original stop order has already hit, I'll add another $100 to the account and set up a new stop order.

I've got marketdistancepips set to 200, so when you think about it, to get to a third stop order, price has to have already moved hundreds of pips or more to get to the outside sixths line, then it has gone by the outside sixths line by at least 300 pips.

It will be interesting to see how often I get a trade, how much draw down I get, and how much of a return I can make on a very minimal investment. If I need to add money to keep the account from going bust, I will, but my gut feel is that this should be highly unlikely. Famous last words

[cozybooks]

Peaky Fifo update (10 weeks of testing):

$ 28.37 profit in closed trades for the week. Added to my previous $ 426.80 brings my 10 week total to $ 455.17. On my theoretical $5,000 account, I am up 9.1%.Max drawdown so far has been a manageable 7.6%. My current drawdown in open trades is about $ 93.00 (under 2%).

Have a great weekend!

[jade768]

Peaky Fifo update (10 weeks of testing):

$ 28.37 profit in closed trades for the week. Added to my previous $ 426.80 brings my 10 week total to $ 455.17. On my theoretical $5,000 account, I am up 9.1%.Max drawdown so far has been a manageable 7.6%. My current drawdown in open trades is about $ 93.00 (under 2%).

Have a great weekend!

Very nice results cozybooks! This EA deserves a go for a test! How are your results so far? Did you get stuck with some NZD trades?

Regards

[cozybooks]

Hey Jade768, Good morning from here on the U.S. east coast!

I now have 12 weeks of testing - one more week for a full three month test. I've added another $ 53.82 in four closed trades, bringing my 12 week closed profit to $ 508.99.

I'm trading 20 pairs, but I have NZD trading on only two pairs - AUDNZD and NZDJPY. Curiously, NZDJPY has just one .01 buy trade open at the moment, running a small deficit. AUDNZD is having some tough times, which was the whole point of a long term test. I now have three sell trades open - .01, .02 and .03. There is a sell stop for a .04 trade. It is running about $131 in the red at the moment. EURJPY is my other pair in trouble. Again three sell trades open, running about a $105 deficit at the moment.

All combined, I am $310 down in open trades. Considering my banked profits, I'm still in good shape. If you're able to run this strategy without Fifo, either outside the U.S. or on Oanda in the U.S. with different lot sizes, you have the option of letting individual trades close as soon as they get their 105 pip profit, but I'm running this test on an account that requires FIFO on everything, which means as soon as I have two trades on a pair, I have to wait for the whole basket to get into profit to close. My suspicion is that even though this can lead to a higher drawn down short term, it will result in higher profit long term, plus it will avoid leaving one or two orphan trades out there on a pair.

You can see that in the last two weeks, only four trades closed. This is a slow motion strategy. Patience is the key. I have AUD, GBP, and USD running on four pairs. EUR and JPY and running on five pairs. One of the considerations for running live would be to only trade a currency two or three times, but I wanted to see how high the draw down would get with a higher number.

I still think one really boring strategy that will be very successful will be to wait for a demo to get to the third or fourth trade stage before opening up live trades - a lot fewer trades but draw down would be much lower and you have a pair that in theory is way overdue for a correction. I now have a live sell stop on AUDNZD to tie in with the fourth trade on the demo and I'll be doing the same with EURJPY.

It will be interesting to follow through the end of the year and see how things work out.

Cheers!

[cozybooks]

Every time Peaky Fifo starts to get into trouble, it fights its way back out. End of three months testing, Peaky Fifo has added another $ 60.34 to its winnings, for a total of $ 569.33. On my $ 5,000 demo account, that is an over 10% return, which is pretty impressive. Drawdown on open trades is currently about $275. Maximum drawdown for the three months was about $400, or 8%.



AUDNZD is the only pair I've had that has reached a fourth trade. The fourth trade is currently running a small profit, with the other three trades deep in debt. No worries for the long term power of Peaky Fifo.

I am leaving the demo running, but I will begin adding Peaky Fifo trades into a small live Oanda account. You can do the same thing with as little as $100 to use on a live account.

How? Set up a live account on Oanda. Let the EA run on a demo account permanently. Check the EA once a day and if the EA has generated any pending trades, use the Oanda Trade Manager to enter a corresponding manual trade, making sure you also fill in the TP, also making sure the pending trades have no expiration date. If Peaky Fifo already filled its new trade during the day, just enter your new trade manually right away, setting your TP to 105 pips. You can run this system on as little as a $100 Oanda account by using lot sizes of $10 for every .01 trade on the EA just to be extra safe. (This would be the equivalent of using a $10,000 account on the setup I am using now.

Once you do this regularly, you can do it in a few minutes a day.

On an extreme setup with your nifty little $100 account, you would have trades of $10, $20, $30, $40 and $50. Your top drawn down in three months would have been just over $4.00. Yes, your profits will be tiny at first - mere cents at a time, and on your $100 account you would have made only $ 5.69 in the three months. But your profits will keep growing as long as you don't try to get rich over night with this system. Imagine setting this up for your ten-year-old grand daughter for her future retirement, and teaching her how to set the trades herself (once she's old enough to trade legally. )

Happy Trading!

[cozybooks]

U.S. traders, yes, you still need to break up your money between two Oanda sub-accounts, using one for buy trades, one for sell trades.

This is easy as can be. I have ten different Oanda sub-accounts for different strategies. You can also move money at any time between the accounts if one account gets in trouble and needs help.