SteveHopwood » Sun Jan 21, 2018 1:11 am wrote:
Spudfan, I will make one brief foray here.
You can either:
- Accept the assurance of those of us here who know what we are talking about, that looking back in time at HGI is a waste of time and save yourself from wasting lots of time.
- Carry on insisting that it is not a waste of time, waste lots of time trying to prove it and then realise you have wasted lots of time and retire in embarrassment.
I do not care which you do, but if you continue to insist that you are right, I will remove your posting rights from you.
Capiche?
Following Steve’s comments about the use of historical HGI data being a waste of time, my curiosity about what actually happens to a signal over its life-time led me to do some empirical research.
Steve, if you will indulge me and not ban me, I think my findings underline your point well. I’ve also not seen this kind of work on HGI reported anywhere on the forum or elsewhere.
I observed 12 cases, keeping detailed records of every signal and every change – a move up/down, a disappearance, a re-appearance. I did this for big arrows on M15 only. I can’t speak about any other case, but I guess the story is the same.
For clarity, I have named the original signal candle “bar 1”, the next candle bar 2 etc.
As soon as a big arrow formed on bar 1 I noted its position and the time and then refreshed the chart frequently and in this way tracked every change – some big arrows stayed entirely stable and are still visible – the original arrows. I found 3 of the 12 cases were like that.
Most big arrows moved between once and 4 times on bar 1 while it was active, or disappeared or re-appeared fairly freely once bar 1 had closed.
Of my 12 cases, I recorded 32 big arrow changes (move, disappear, re-appear), not counting the original big arrow.
The longest ‘life-span’ of a big arrow that I found was 5 candles – to my surprise I saw a big arrow re-appear on bar 1 as a result of price movement on bar 5. This confirms for me that not only is a signal not fixed in place after bar 1 closes, but it can continue to fool us long after. I used M15, but if H4 works the same it would be 20 hours or up to 5 days later on D1.
My work is limited by being only on M15 and only 12 cases, but there's no mistaking the story it tells.
I hope this proves useful!
Alistair
). Surely if a candle closes then if a big arrow is visible on that closed candle, even one second after it closes, then that's it. It cannot disappear and won't be adjusted - it surely has to be fixed in place and be permanent? I suppose I need to wait for the markets to open and set a M5 chart and just stare at it for a while
