The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[flywood]

Rewand, that look like really good trades.

But I must confess that I am a bit at a loss as to why you took them at the point that you did. Especially the second row.. in the first, I see that the entries are obviously based on W-patterns after a push out of accumulation/consolidation, but this the second set I'm not so sure..



Sorry to trouble you, still trying to learn...

One more quick question to all of you here - don't you also have the feeling sometimes that the elements mentioned by CJ earlier in the thread do not seem to appear as often as they seem to have. I get the feeling that the fox might have adapted and muddied things up further. For instance, very often I see failed examples of the 3-day cycle where price reverses or bounces all over the place. Then ages of chopping action with no clear pins, etc.

Might just be that I am not able to see it...

Cheers,
Frank

[rewand]

Rewand, that look like really good trades.

But I must confess that I am a bit at a loss as to why you took them at the point that you did. Especially the second row.. in the first, I see that the entries are obviously based on W-patterns after a push out of accumulation/consolidation, but this the second set I'm not so sure..



Sorry to trouble you, still trying to learn...

One more quick question to all of you here - don't you also have the feeling sometimes that the elements mentioned by CJ earlier in the thread do not seem to appear as often as they seem to have. I get the feeling that the fox might have adapted and muddied things up further. For instance, very often I see failed examples of the 3-day cycle where price reverses or bounces all over the place. Then ages of chopping action with no clear pins, etc.

Might just be that I am not able to see it...

Cheers,
Frank

Hi, I have removed the second raw of trades, they were too many. If you refer to the Oanda webtrade pages, unfortunately it is not possible to see the exact entry as Oanda compiles all positions to average and indicates entries accordingly. I have no Empty4 during the day Some of my trades are not based on perfect entry points as I cant watch pa all day long. But let me know which trade you are interested in and I will share the chart on the pair later on.

On your second comment. CJ did tell us to keep learning the tricks. Fox's job is to make money by adapting to circumstances, but our job is the same. You absolutely need to identify new patterns and the circumstances in which they play out. Pairs also have different favourite patterns, if you look at UCAD you can see that it likes to draw yesterday's pattern quite frequently on levels, I just realized it today (may fox divide the market and one fox likes to do it this way, other fox likes to do it other way and they may borrow techniques from each other. why would they fight agains each other when there are so many markets to make money on). They also like to keep price at or near a level that seems like forever before a drop. Right when I have the time to pay attention - but nothing moves. Also they like to lead price to certain dangerous points and keep it there till midnight when who knows what spread you get. I closed my UCAD trades last night as I did not want to see money going down the toilet..
But on the other hand, if you really understand what the daily mm routine is about and what constitutes the big picure moves, then it would be hard for fox to outsmart you.

[rewand]

Anyway, I have only one issue with naked trading and that is reset. Can anyone tell what is the earliest point when one can clearly recognize that a reset is coming after a 3 level drop/rise? I have my ideas on reset but I got burnt few times by not being able to foresee it clearly (patterns help, htfs help, daily mm routine helps, SH with price going beyond previous level /like L3 >> PL >> price acting like building L1 and going beyond L3 for an SH just to reverse/ and pull back helps, Sympathy said price makes W and then M). So how do we know that it is surely reset and not just additional chop? Any other idea apart from the ones mentioned above?

[flywood]

Ah, thanks, Rewand - now it's clear, I just couldn't figure the entries..

And you're certainly right about the evolving ways of the fox, I just have the feeling that CJ was able to put it very simply - and it seems to be so much more complicated now.

[WhoKnows]

Anyway, I have only one issue with naked trading and that is reset.

The reset is also for me still the most difficult issue.
I nowadays just assume that a Level 2 can have a reset back to Level 1, (so I prefer trading away from PH, PL or L1.). However there I something I noticed.... or maybe imagine.

I mark my charts up with support resistance lines (something I got used to when trying an approach from a Forex training website which focuses on indecision on Daily to H4 time frames to enter; an ideal way of non-intensive trading for those with jobs).
The SR lines that are most relevant for me are those that I can place when looking at an W and D chart. I think these basically align with what CJ refers to as Areas of interest. But for me real SR lines work better.

If I see a move up from PH and the first push to L1 is pretty small and then the push to Level 2 is pretty small, the third push can't reach the next important SR / area of interest. In these case there is IMHO a much greater chance that at Level 2 you will see a reset to Level 1 and a restart of the cycle up (which then has a shorter distance to cover). I hope my rambling makes sense.
So based on a higher time frame I guestimate where the next cycle could/should end, and if the first levels don't cover enough ground I expect a reset at level 2.

BTW for me the use of SR lines as targets for moves, or to pinpoint likely reversals makes it a lot easier.
Basically trying to integrate two approaches. Still in testing phase but for very promising.

[ericjschroeder]

I would also like to add something, which I was going to post last night and now it is true. IF YOU DON'T SEE A CLEAR SETUP, DON'T PLACE A TRADE! At least that's what I was (not) going to do last night but then I thought, well that one might be a setup, or that other one might move. Guess what? All losses this morning. Lesson learned (again).

[rewand]

I still think it is ak.. lets see

[SWG123]

Hi guys,

I am familiar with trading intraday stop-run reversals and have done some BARFing - I was acquainted with CJ back in FXAW days.

But I have to admit that I have struggled with the methodology (patterns, level, etc) posted here and have found it difficult to see that which "can't be unseen".

However, by chance, I spotted this tonight and it almost sent a shiver down my spine ... could it really be coincidence?

[SWG123]

I think I'm starting to catch on. So now, going into the long holiday weekend, both buyers and sellers are trapped. Foxy still has access to market data over the weekend and can do whatever he wants when trading resumes. Brilliant!

[ericjschroeder]

I would also like to add something, which I was going to post last night and now it is true. IF YOU DON'T SEE A CLEAR SETUP, DON'T PLACE A TRADE! At least that's what I was (not) going to do last night but then I thought, well that one might be a setup, or that other one might move. Guess what? All losses this morning. Lesson learned (again).

Ok, why am I quoting myself? Because after the day developed I found I really WAS right in the setups I saw and they (would have) produced some profits to offset the losses. Hmmm. I still need to fine tune the entry for my trading availability but at least I can see I am getting closer but need to start trusting the decision. I don't need monster wins right now; just enough profit to cover the losses plus a bit and I can start trading live.

I'm still not really clear on seeing all the patterns that everyone talks about here but eventually, that should happen. Thanks for all the input from everyone currently posting trades and thoughts here.