Peaky on Steroids

[1qaz2wsx33]

What version are you using?

Version 1h. I have never noticed until now because these last 2 months have been almost no drawdown for me. In the mean time I have switched to version 1e as further back in the thread Gertje mentioned he also had this problem, and 1e has fixed it for now. I will try downloading the latest version to see if that works right.

EDIT: Tested and It seems the latest version (11) also does not place recovery trades for me

[zafh]

I believe there was a problem with the recovery which Gertje mentioned, I had similar issues. Using version 1e with the 3 groups of currencies is what he did, which seems to work fine. No idea if the latest version resolved this issue or not.

There is a version of 1e which lets you do the database testing.

[Gertje]

Nearly a year ago I started a demo to see what PoS was capable of, and it turned out beyond my biggest imagination.

During the first week or so, I used 4 timeframes but quickly discovered that the 'lower' timeframes, M15 and H1 created to much DD because they had to obey the higher TF's and the 6th of the lower ones was broken often.

After I killed all the M15 and H1 trades, I sticked to H4 and D1 after that.
I fumbled with settings, noticed that some pairs made 3 recoverytrades within the upper 6th, and other pairs made 10 or more of these. Not to good for the DD as well....

I then started splitting the pairs in groups, ranked by the distance between 2 lines of the 6th indi.
After separating the pairs, I looked for a 'sensible' lotsize and calculated the lotsize so, that a trade running the 6th distance to TP would make appr. 1% of the balance. The MarketDistancePips I choose so, that 3-4 recovery trades would open within the 6th. DD kept more or less in check after that.

With a few months experience on the demo, I opened a $400 cent-account and started trading this setup live.
The demo went flat, with no open trades just before X-mas 2017 and I decided to let it run unattended from that moment so I could concentrate on my live trading account.

Where the demo went from $10.000 to $34.563 in 2017, it more than doubled in the firsts 6 months of 2018, totally hands-free!

PoS 1 year.png

What I noticed earlier, and can be seen nearly every month is the fact that at the end of the month; DD increases, only to recover and some more during the first week of the next month. I drew the little yellow boxes on the chart to show what I mean. My gut tells me there is something we can use this for, just not sure what.

My live account went from a cent-account to a GP standard account after I made enough to let PoS run there. I tried a lot a stuff to increase profit, but what increased most was the DD.
Now I decided to just let PoS run live like it does on my demo, and be happy with the profits and the lower DD.
What I learned during the past year; it sometimes takes a little time and patience, but the price ALWAYS comes back to the middle.



To check the account: https://www.fxblue.com/users/2085517

[billv]

Hi Gertje

Many thanks for the update.
I also had very encouraging results and I'm intensifying my testing because I intend to put it live.
I'm actually very happy with the results but I'm not sure on what lot size to pick for a larger size account.
I think I will pick 0.01 per $5K of equity. (0.1 size on a $50K account ).

What do you think?

Cheers
Bill

[Gertje]

Hi Gertje

Many thanks for the update.
I also had very encouraging results and I'm intensifying my testing because I intend to put it live.
I'm actually very happy with the results but I'm not sure on what lot size to pick for a larger size account.
I think I will pick 0.01 per $5K of equity. (0.1 size on a $50K account ).

What do you think?

Cheers
Bill

That would be very conservative for some pairs.

I have it split up like;
MDP < 150 : dollup 0.01/1.600
MDP 150 < 250 : dollup 0.01/2.500
MDP 250 < 350 : dollup 0.01/3.333
MDP > 350 : dollup 0.01/5.000
[yes, I'm running 4 setfiles now.]

[SilverTrader]

Nearly a year ago I started a demo to see what PoS was capable of, and it turned out beyond my biggest imagination.

Thank you very much, your updates and analysis are invaluable and while I do not trade the Steroids version, yet, I do enjoy and appreciate this kind of feedback, thank you again.

[nicolkoekoek]

Hi Gertje, Thanks for the update!

What you see is book balancing at the end of each month, if the pension funds are holding too much of a particular currency they have to balance the books, so there is less risk for them. And the reports they send out to their customers look good.

This happens usually during the last few days of the month and can create big (more or less) random moves, since there could be quite a few of them. These moves can go against the real intrinsic value of each currency.
They have to do this, so they can show how balanced the risk is every month, quarter and of course the year..

Keep smiling, Nicolaas

[billv]

That would be very conservative for some pairs.

I have it split up like;
MDP < 150 : dollup 0.01/1.600
MDP 150 < 250 : dollup 0.01/2.500
MDP 250 < 350 : dollup 0.01/3.333
MDP > 350 : dollup 0.01/5.000
[yes, I'm running 4 setfiles now.]

Hi Gertje,
Interesting split, I understand why you do this but I will stick to the conservative lot size for now.
Many thanks

[SteveHopwood]

Hi Gertje

Many thanks for the update.
I also had very encouraging results and I'm intensifying my testing because I intend to put it live.
I'm actually very happy with the results but I'm not sure on what lot size to pick for a larger size account.
I think I will pick 0.01 per $5K of equity. (0.1 size on a $50K account ).

What do you think?

Cheers
Bill

Gertje describes this as

That would be very conservative for some pairs.

For sure, I would not argue with him here. PoS would not still be being discussed without him. Take note when he pronounces.

Having said that, if you are not sure what you are doing, then conservative is excellent. I am not trading PoS live. I am trading SPB live at 0.01 lots per $4k of equity, so only slightly less conservative than you. Gertje knows what he is talking about. You don't? Stay conservative. The profits might accrue more slowly, but they will accrue.

Thanks for your magnificent work here Gertje. There will be SHF members making money from a bot that would have been forgotten quickly were it not for you.

[billv]

Having said that, if you are not sure what you are doing, then conservative is excellent

It is more about having a buffer.
I trade 4 time frames, so there will be more open trades that if I only traded the 4H and 1D.
I switched to this lot size ratio while testing the awesome EA.

You are right about Gertje, and I'm VERY VERY thankful for his detailed posts.

I should also point out that some months back I was about to stop using this EA
and you convinced me to take another look at it so thank you for the encouragement.

The SPB is a nice EA too but POS will make more money.