Peaky on Steroids

[alecsa72]

Yesterday I arrived at a point in my FX-career where I have never been before....

The now 14 month old demo reached 100K, 10 times the starting balance !
Although it is in bigger DD right now [like 35%], I still see it going forward.

I have been watching this for months, very good work.

Might be an idea to consider working out a formula for reducing the trade size per dollop as the account grows. Your equity is growing exponentially as you get more and more money in the account but your risk being taken seem to be growing faster relative to the profits made.

Agree with this poster, I was also thinking something around similar lines

I had been checking up on Gertjie's PoS FX Blue account religiously, and right now it seems to be in somewhat precarious position - the DD is reaching levels unseen in the whole of previous year's worth of data - check the Equity chart snapshot below

Obviously, it's not terminal yet by any means, and has a potential to recover, but it is worrying development

Capture.PNG

The Floating P/L looks even more dire ...

Capture2.PNG

[SteveHopwood]

Most of you will have read my extra wrup tonight.

PoSv 1m is in post 1, fully compliant with TDesk - read http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 22#p163522 You will need "TDesk.mqh" in your Platform/MQL/Include folder.

Do a search for "TDesk code" to see what needs adding to make EA's compliant. Indicators I am leaving to others.

[alecsa72]

Situation is quite precarious currently - DD around 72%

I checked Gertje's set files again and the "dollop of cash" is using Balance for calculation

I think it should be switched to equity to prevent such position, i.e. as equity decreases so will the size of the new orders

Code: Select all

Trade1LotsPerDollopOfCash=0.01
Trade1SizeOfDollop=2500.0
Trade1UseBalance=true -> false
Trade1UseEquity=false -> true

[Gertje]

Might be an idea to consider working out a formula for reducing the trade size per dollop as the account grows. Your equity is growing exponentially as you get more and more money in the account but your risk being taken seem to be growing faster relative to the profits made.

The risk is growing lineair, it's "just" that the market is in a extreme situation at the moment.

AUD and NZD tanking, GBP awaiting the Brexit-deal, EUR under stress from several countries, USD going up against all odds.

I agree that the risk is way to high at the moment, something to tinker with going forward.

[Gertje]

I checked Gertje's set files again and the "dollop of cash" is using Balance for calculation

I think it should be switched to equity to prevent such position, i.e. as equity decreases so will the size of the new orders.

There is a good reason for me to do that.
The recovery uses the pipcount for closinig orders, not the averige position.
So if the initial order is 0.1 lot, and the recovery orders say 0.03 [like with 70% DD], then the whole position would close at a loss.

[alecsa72]

I checked Gertje's set files again and the "dollop of cash" is using Balance for calculation

I think it should be switched to equity to prevent such position, i.e. as equity decreases so will the size of the new orders.

There is a good reason for me to do that.
The recovery uses the pipcount for closinig orders, not the averige position.
So if the initial order is 0.1 lot, and the recovery orders say 0.03 [like with 70% DD], then the whole position would close at a loss.

I see, ok that makes sense

Perhaps a proper lot weighted average should be calculated for pips profit then ...

[zafh]

Might be an idea to consider working out a formula for reducing the trade size per dollop as the account grows. Your equity is growing exponentially as you get more and more money in the account but your risk being taken seem to be growing faster relative to the profits made.

The risk is growing lineair, it's "just" that the market is in a extreme situation at the moment.

AUD and NZD tanking, GBP awaiting the Brexit-deal, EUR under stress from several countries, USD going up against all odds.

I agree that the risk is way to high at the moment, something to tinker with going forward.

I'd disagree. The nature of using 0.01 lots per $X of cash always has more risk when you move up in lot size.

For example if you use 0.01 per $1000 your risk is greatest at the start as you have the smallest amount in your account. When you get to $1999.99 your risk have halved. When you get to $2000 your risk goes back to the max. As you account grows you increase lot size faster. Going from 0.01 to 0.02 is a 100% increase in the account 0.02 to 0.03 at 50%, 0.03 to 0.04 33% etc. When your account really grows each trade will increase the lot size so your risk is at the maximum all the time, but your account also grows faster as a result, which is why your balance is going up exponentially. I think a fixed ratio method (increase lot size based on profit made per lot) might be better once you get pass a certain size.

[billv]

The risk is growing lineair, it's "just" that the market is in a extreme situation at the moment.
AUD and NZD tanking, GBP awaiting the Brexit-deal, EUR under stress from several countries, USD going up against all odds.

Yes, a very unusual situation at present and not one which we will be experiencing often.

However, we can all learn from situations like this.

Is the account growing too fast and therefore we can afford to reduce our starting lot size?
Should we be excluding certain pairs or should we even avoid trading particular pairs simultaneously?

What EA settings would have helped reduce our exposure further?
Should we be manually intervening and closing some trades as Steve did recently taking advantage of a GBP pullback?

[Gertje]

Yes, a very unusual situation at present and not one which we will be experiencing often.

However, we can all learn from situations like this.

Is the account growing too fast and therefore we can afford to reduce our starting lot size?
Should we be excluding certain pairs or should we even avoid trading particular pairs simultaneously?

What EA settings would have helped reduce our exposure further?
Should we be manually intervening and closing some trades as Steve did recently taking advantage of a GBP pullback?

For sure one would intervene if it was a live account.

I'm trading the same setup live, and have huge DD as well.
I delete pendings and adjust targets continuesly.

I'm thinking about going forward with 1/2 the lotsize/ double the dollup.
9-10% monthly is still a huge return.

[billv]

I'm thinking about going forward with 1/2 the lotsize/ double the dollup.

That's exactly what I would be doing and I would leave it determined by the account balance. :hi:
Alternatively, what we could do is to accept that the trade size is too big for the account size and have a plan to intervene by closing trades OR to add more money to the account ( IF and when needed).