Hey Folks!
I'm sorry that I didn't come up with my promised post for yesterday. Had a hard week and needed to recreate first. Nonetheless, here comes my contribution.
I was totally impressed by the SPB family results. Especially when Thomas came up with the SPB3, which now constantly increases our accounts' balance
But with the first bigger drawdown, I started to think about the the actual cause to this. So, while browsing
"Hanover replies to PMs @ FF", I found his approach to do some scalping on the M15 timeframe. In his package, he had one indicator that resembles Steve's Peak Hi/Lo indicator. It's called the Donchian Channel indicator and it does pretty much the same. The only thing this indicator does on top, is showing the adaption to the latest data created:
SPB-Example.jpg
With this indicator on top, the scales fell from my eyes: In case of a ranging price for a longer timespan of 70 days, Peaky begins to narrow. This is beacause of the Peaky H1 setting of 1682 which is equal to 70,08 days. Now, as soon as the price is at an alleged High or Low and Slopey gives us a supplementary SHORT or LONG signal, SPB starts to knock in pendings. Taking a look at the depicted example of the GBPCHF chart, we can see that this would have happened at 11th of June. Problem is that we come form a squeezed range which is on its way to unfold again. In this example, we propably now have found our real bottom / Peaky Low. So I presume, it's these cases of the market that mainly lead to our SPB drawdown.
You guys may already have found out about this mystery but me as a visually thinking person needed this picture to identify the reason for SPB's periodically returning drawdowns.
Since I have found out about the problem's reason, I'm now trying to find a workaround. As I said, think visually. That's why I like
JonCodesBad's publication of the
ALMA indicator. It is a smoothed Moving Average that reacts realitvely fast to trend changes. And since it draws directly on the main chart, it gives me a visually clean picture.
Right now, I'm constructing a new TDesk setup with these three indicators on the D1 and the H4 timeframe. I'm aiming on a relatively short trading horizon. In other words, the trades should be open for a maximum of one week. This gives me enough data after approximately 2 weeks to analyze the setup.
In comparison to SPB, this setup is rather a follower of a established D1 trend. This means later entries but should contribute to lower drawdowns. I use the ALMA and Donchian Channel on D1 for an overall trend identification and the combination of ALMA H4 and Donchain Channel for the actual trading entry and exit points. Peaky on H1 with 1682 bars is included to block signals on the very outer rims. This is where big changes of the overall trend happens and I don't want to be in those big washing machines.
ALMA Donchian Channel H4.jpg
Coming to the TDesk setup derived from these findings, I have stumbled upon a great coincidence of TDesk UBD in combination of indicators that already have implemented TDesk signals: If the timeframe of the TD indicators invoked by the UBD is set to Current by default, you can bypass the actual procedure of opening every single currency chart!!!
In other words, you only need two XAUUSD charts to be opened for a fully functioning TDesk setup, similar to Thomas'
Slopey Peaky Desk. One for TDesk itself and the other one for Desky plus UBD calling all your individual indicators with their own TD Signals.
PAD Master.jpg
As I wrote in my post earlier this week, this is a setup which is still evolving and I would never try this live at this point. The 300 pips are only the result of the last 12 hours of yesterday after some new implementations. But somehow, the whopping 5200 pips in the last two weeks give me a good feeling to publish the setup here in the Whispers section, even at this imperfect condition
Peaky ALMA Donchian Channel Strategy.zip
Since the indicators are in an absolute alpha state, there is no description written in the indicators inputs at all. This is because of my thinking that the indicators and the setup have to prove themselves before it is worth spending time for all the documentation and publication. However, I rather describe the published TDesk Signals displayed in the TDesk Master screenshot above:
ALMA/D1
This signal gives an overall trend on the D1 timeframe given by the ALMA indicator. It has no special attributes.
ALMA/H4
This signal is part of the entry and exit point on the H4 timeframe given by the ALMA indicator. It is on the ExitOnDisagreeSignals list together with the DC-HL/H4 signal.
DC-HL/D1
This signal can be ignored since it is only a remnant of the TD signals invoked by UBD. I just recently removed it from the setup which has to be proven as a good decision. We'll see in the coming week.
DC-HL/H4
This signal is part of the entry and exit point on the H4 timeframe given by the Donchian Channel indicator. It sends a LONG/SHORT signal if the price most recently touched the Channel's LOW/HIGH. In case that the last bar touched both, the LOW and the HIGH, a FLAT signal will be published. It is on the ExitOnDisagreeSignals list together with the ALMA/H4 signal.
DC-M/D1
This signal contributes to the overall trend identification on the D1 timeframe given by the Donchian Channel indicator. It sends a LONG/SHORT signal if the price is above/below the middle of the Donchian Channel. It has no special attributes. To date, I am not sure if this is really needed. Will be tested in the coming weeks.
DC-M/D1
This signal can be ignored since it is only a remnant of the TD signals invoked by UBD.
PB-1/H1
This is Peaky as we all know it. It only publishes directional signal in the outer sixths. It is excluded from the Solo and Multi Signals but on the VetoOnOppositeSignals list. This shall prevent the entry into an overextended trend. To date, I am not sure if this is really needed. Will be tested in the coming weeks.
A-D1/D1 and A-D2/H4
These signals can be ignored since they are only a remnant of the TD signals invoked by UBD.
So in conclusion, the setup works as followed: At first, a stable trend has to form on the D1 timeframe. This is given by the ALMA/D1 and the DC-M/D1. For a Super Signal, the price must have touched the LOW /HIGH of the Donchian Channel on H4 most recently and the ALMA/H4 must turn GREEN/RED. Under this condition, Desky opens a Limit Order, an immediate position and two Stop Orders. As soon as the both H4 Signals disagree, an Exit Signal gets published to close the trades.
Once I have found an endpoint of all the signal combinations, I will let the setup run for at least two weeks in its allegedly final format. With enough historical data, I will then go over to the last step of analyzation. At that point, the TDesk Player will have the role ove the last final polish. With this tool, I will try to find a supporting threshold of the Multi Signal, that hopfully eradicates the last remaining faulty entries.
Hope, you guys can follow my explanations written above. Please feel free to constructively criticize as this is only an approach based on my own simple minded thoughts.
Hope you have fun with the setup in the upcoming week and please let me know if anything doesn't make sense to you!
Cheers,
Mat
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