Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff

[slowkey]

Greetings Traders

I encourage new traders to learn Naningbobs 10.2a. to become a successful trader than you can experiment and find which style of trading and time period suits you. The hard part of trading is mastering the psychology of trading and money management. Let a system like 10.2a be where you get your start and learn to be successful at all three pillars of trading, method, psychology and money management.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=38&t=861

This is a setup for the analysis of intraday daily range and how the setup might be used to develop trades from the analysis. That is how it started out but I am extending that to a combined approach to all time periods.

The following speaks to the psychology of trading and money management the reason 95 percent of traders fail is they do not take both seriously.

My only Rule follows,

1. One thing I have learned about trading is this. Always Respect Price. There is no indicator or system that has anything on price. The market does not care about you and when price is going against you .... You are just wrong. Sit on your hands until you are WILLING to do the right thing. Learning this little lesson has done more for my trading than any system or indicator.

The easiest way to obey this rule is to always have a plan and no what conditions or events invalidates your trade plan. You do not have to wait for your stop to be hit to get out a of trade if you know that your plan is not working. However with good money management you do not have to worry about your stop being hit either. You have defined risk as part of your plan.

9/29/2012

This is not a systematic trading strategy. A terrific trader named Dr Elder states there are two types of traders and both can be successful: Systematic traders and Discretionary traders. The first would use strictly mechanical methods with rules. The second would listen to multiple time periods, indicators and some fundamental knowledge to come up with a trading plan.

So my kind of trading to a person looking for a purely mechanical system would be unsatisfying. My approach to trading works for me. I do not like to think purely mechanical. I take in consideration different signals every time I trade and sometimes more fundamental knowledge than others would feel comfortable using to trade. I think most new traders look for mechanical systems to trade because they think trading is easy. In reality it is hard and no mater what your approach one needs to master the psychology of trading and money management.

My setup is designed to make Discretionary trading easy for me. I am not making rules. I am making plans to trade from based on a review of the setup and experience of trading it. Each plan can be clearly invalidated or validated by price movement. The risk is always reasonable and the stop never moved. It is not moved because it is always at a location where the plan would be invalidated if it got hit. I do seek to know if my plan has been invalidated prior to the stop being hit. I live by Rule 1. My only real rule. It is a psychological rule.

Edit 9/29/2012

I am using the NT TMATrue SlopeHisto MTF now on the 30 min period 15 min period in histo-mode. I did use the MACD starting out than switched to the Blau SMI. I have since switched back to the MACD. I am not defining a systematic mechanical system. Use what ever you are most comfortable with as a confirming indicator. The thread has been moving towards a multi-time period approach which I will call the combined setup.

I use the BaludaTMASlopeMTF indicator on the hourly. I use 10.2a TMA slope true NT on the 4 hour and daily. Follow the link in the first paragraph to get it.

In this setup I use a Standard Deviation Channel tool that is free from Compassfx. This is not an endorsement of them.

(I am using THV daily pivots only and you will need to set them to your Crims server time. Local time I have set as the NY close.) *Well I was using them and have switched to Baluda's DWMpivots.
I have done this to share some of the ideas of 10.2 on the hourly, 4 hour and Daily. This is not a 10.2 system but to understand slope and pivots as used in 10.2 you need to know 10.2.

(I am using a Demark trend trader tool. Tom Demark devised a way of drawing trend lines from right to left using just two point. There is only one way to draw them and this indicator does that and gives you a projection.) *I am not using the Demark any more. I try to keep things simple with a limited amount of indicator. I use the 100 and 200 day moving averages on the Daily chart. I will draw Fibonacci's off of both the Daily and Weekly charts. They are simple to draw on these higher time periods and very insightful.

I also threw in a nice little indicator that displays price, spread, and Daily Range. It goes on all my charts.

I have started to use the Dashboard from the following thread in the 10.2 indi section as guidance for Risk=on vs Risk=off. It is a very good indicator for this when you sort by 4 hour POW with absolute value turned on. http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... f=45&t=598. I am using the version by JimDandy which you can find below.

The heart of this setup is Neo's indicator, Baluda's indicator, MACD indicator, DWMpivots and the Standard Deviation Channel. The channel has a 6 day look back on the hourly, the 4 hour SDC has a 25 day look back and the Daily has a 150 day look back. What you will see with the Channel is that price will move within it in characteristic ways. So it gives you a nice background to understand price against at the moment. I have also started to observe that hourly slope is a good indicator of intraday trend.
I have moved to a combined template I will call version 10.

---------------- This section will be revised extensively from time to time 9/29/2012 .

For now read the thread and the PDF. A copy of what was here is in the thread so you will be able to view it historically. I will be revising the PDF but it still is a good summation of the intraday setup and will help put the beginning of the thread in context.
...............................................................................................................................................................


My templates are dark because I need contrast to see. Feel free to beautify. I will try to participate as much as possible here but I have a laundry list of things health wise going on with me and from time to time I need my rest. I will share some charts in the following post.
______________


BELOW IS Old History .... Edit 9/29/2012

Left here just so you will understand why an indicator needs to be non-repainting for analysis. I knew this but just did not know about the setting being there.The indicator spoken of below is no longer used but the below explains how the thread got slightly off track at the beginning. So that if you were to read the thread straight through you would gain context. [[...............................................]]

[[When I posted the initial charts I was unaware of the the True TMA switch. This was a mistake on my part that I did not realize that there was such switch on NeoTraders inidicator. That being said you may find some value in the posted charts regarding the setup. However any conclusions I drew from the NT indicator on the initial charts are suspect. By leaving the charts there I think you can get an idea later on how the setup is evolving.
Any future charts posted will clearly show the indicator in TRUE TMA mode. So take with a rather big grain of salt what I thought was happening with the indicator in these first few charts I posted. This is not to devalue the indicator or the FINE work NeoTrader did in making the indicator. Having initial success with the indicator was real and even when it is not in true tma mode the indicator is "accurate" at the hard right edge of the chart. So the signals I was trading were good signals but in that mode the visual look back is not accurate to what I was trading at the hard right edge of the chart and it should not be used for the development or illustration of strategy. Needless to say I was rather startled to realize I had done this at the time. NeoTraders and others comments have righted the boat and as I write this it is a new day and I like this setup.]]
...............................................................................................................................................................

9/29/2012
I will leave the Original package first posted and now add the Combined version 10. It has all the indicators ever posted and the newest template and includes the original PDF.

10/6/2012 I added template 11 .

[slowkey]

audjpy.gif

So here is an AUDJPY chart illustrated to clarify some points. I will be sharing more as I trade this setup.

[fire580]

Thank You slowkey looking forward to this.

[slowkey]

audjpy 30 minute.gif

Now stepping down to the 30 minute period on the same pair at the same time.

[slowkey]

audjpy 15.gif

Now moving down to the 15 minute chart to show you what the counter trend trade we saw on the 30 minute look like there. Counter trend trading in a strong downtrend might not be advisable but this is not what we have here.

I forgot to highlight it but look how price meets resistance at the pivot.

[slowkey]

Now I need to go about trading this system. Make your self at home and I welcome all insights. I will share more charts of live trades I take as I see them. I welcome all to do the same too.

[Eamonn]

Hi SK,

just check out where those crossovers were with the indicator set to true.

[slowkey]

Your Insight is welcome Eamonn....

[NeoTrader]

hi slowkey, eamonn,

just check out where those crossovers were with the indicator set to true.

You had the same thought like me...

@slowkey
first of thanks for your nice setup...I'm eager to see and learn more of it.

...and now to your screenshots...please set the parameter tmaTrueMode to true to get realistic values of the past...in the standard tma mode up to 20 bars in the past are repainted. This means that the slopes you see are not what you see in real time...
There still will be viable entry signals...but not as timely as you think...


happy trading,

NeoTrader

-

[slowkey]

So far the trades I have taken have been working. Any body following this thread be advised that NeoTrader is right. It does repaint. If the indicator has no value I will take a nap, Start a new day and Steve can chuckle. I certainly have no wish to deceive anyone here or make a case for trading in the past tense. So you can flip it to true or flip it to false and see what value it has for you at the hard right edge of the chart. I hope we do find some usefulness for it just as Bob did for slope which if I recall repainted and I cannot remember if it still does or not. NeoTrader did a nice job making this indicator configurable. In reality I was trading this setup with out this indicator quite well. MACD is an excellent tool for trade entry. The channel gives you a good grasp of trend and counter trend. So if the indicator turns out to be a bust I think the setup still is a nice one. I hope someone finds it useful. In reality I already stated that there is not indicator or system that has preeminence over price.