Peaky Fifo

[cozybooks]

Hi everyone,

Yes, I'm still around and kicking, although suffering from lyme arthritis now with a seriously blown up right knee, so maybe not so much kicking.

Anyway, my little demo is still chugging away. It went through a lot of tough times. Draw down reached about $ 4,500 range for a while with only a few positive trades closing.
It's had a little bit of comeback since. Currently sitting at balance of $ 20,037, but with a drawdown of $ 2,506. So if closed everything now, I'd be slightly worse off than I was back in September of 2020.

I've gone this far - might as well let the little demo keep going. I still have a small live Oanda account attached to it which mimics the demo, but at only 2% of the Empty4 trades, so my drawdown there is only about $50.

Sample of a current live chart - USDJPY, in profit (lol, at the moment), and chugging its way toward 108.73 (I hope) to close the trade for a full profit.

It's nice to see that Peaky Fifo is still doing its thing after all this time. Demo started in August of 2017 at $ 10,000, so all in all, it continues to do just fine, even though the last couple of years haven't seen a lot of movement forward. Hopefully that means it's getting ready to flex its muscles and put up some bigger profits in the next year or two.

With the balance finally sneaking above the $20,000 mark, lot size will now bump up to .02 from .01, so I hope I'm around to see Peaky Fifo hit the $ 50,0000 mark on the demo within another few years. One improvement I want to make when I get a chance is to the TP. Because I am set to using FIFO, it sets the TP for all trades the same, but right now it looks like it is the original TP on the original trade. Once a third trade opens, considering how much space is between the individual trades, it would make more sense to set the TP to the entry price of the first trade. This would still bring in double the profit of a single trade and allow more trades to close in a more reasonable timeframe. Well, at least it sounds good on paper!

Happy trading everyone!

[kriptopoulin]

You're doing great work. Thanks for sharing with the community.

[cozybooks]

Greetings, All! If the Peaky Fifo demo can survive until August, it will hit its 5_year Anniversary! Draw down is back up around $ 4,700. Balance is $ 22,485 - (up from the original $10,000 in August 2017) so Peaky Fifo keeps chugging along. I have a variation on it that I am hoping to put together that uses Weekly TMA lines as a setup, then 4-hour TMA Lines for entering and existing trades that will actually be even less risk that Peaky Fifo - If I can somehow find the time to mark up one of Steve's old EA's I have, I'll post it for others to give it a whirl. Work keeps getting in the way of fun, though!

30 more months, and if disaster doesn't strike, I can retire - lol, well for me that means going back to my used book business and working only forty hours a week!

Happy Trading!

[SteveHopwood]

Greetings, All! If the Peaky Fifo demo can survive until August, it will hit its 5_year Anniversary! Draw down is back up around $ 4,700. Balance is $ 22,485 - (up from the original $10,000 in August 2017) so Peaky Fifo keeps chugging along. I have a variation on it that I am hoping to put together that uses Weekly TMA lines as a setup, then 4-hour TMA Lines for entering and existing trades that will actually be even less risk that Peaky Fifo - If I can somehow find the time to mark up one of Steve's old EA's I have, I'll post it for others to give it a whirl. Work keeps getting in the way of fun, though!

30 more months, and if disaster doesn't strike, I can retire - lol, well for me that means going back to my used book business and working only forty hours a week!

Happy Trading!

Who needs to work 2 hours a week when we can work 40.

Great results, Coz.

[cozybooks]

Greetings, all! I've been ultra busy at the day job the last six months, so not much time for the fun of trading. Right around the five year mark, my Peaky Fifo demo died. Computer it was running on crashed, and I couldn't get the Global Prime demo account to come up on any other computer, even with the user and pw from the old one. Maybe it's still operating out there in cyberspace. Peaky Fifo was struggling at the time, balance having creeped up close to $ 24,000, but the drawdown was up over $ 7,000 with all of the long term trends that kept pushing further and further out. Still, that is a 70% return over the original $ 10,000 if the account had closed out then. Since the demo died, I closed out my little live Oanda account at the time, which had a nice 150% profit. The last month would have brought a little bit of a turnaround, which would have been interesting. At the time, I was content to let things be, but I'm getting the bug to get Peaky Fifo going again.

It will be strictly live using an Oanda Account with Ditto, and I'll have a few small adjustments in strategy. I'll post details once I get it set up. Happy trading, everyone, and stay healthy in a tough world.

[SteveHopwood]

Greetings, all! I've been ultra busy at the day job the last six months, so not much time for the fun of trading. Right around the five year mark, my Peaky Fifo demo died. Computer it was running on crashed, and I couldn't get the Global Prime demo account to come up on any other computer, even with the user and pw from the old one. Maybe it's still operating out there in cyberspace. Peaky Fifo was struggling at the time, balance having creeped up close to $ 24,000, but the drawdown was up over $ 7,000 with all of the long term trends that kept pushing further and further out. Still, that is a 70% return over the original $ 10,000 if the account had closed out then. Since the demo died, I closed out my little live Oanda account at the time, which had a nice 150% profit. The last month would have brought a little bit of a turnaround, which would have been interesting. At the time, I was content to let things be, but I'm getting the bug to get Peaky Fifo going again.

It will be strictly live using an Oanda Account with Ditto, and I'll have a few small adjustments in strategy. I'll post details once I get it set up. Happy trading, everyone, and stay healthy in a tough world.

Welcome back.

[cozybooks]

Happy New Year, Traders!

Side note is that if my Peaky Fifo demo had survived, it would have been doing better and better recovering and adding to its total winnings in the last couple of months.

I'm not sure there are more than a handful of U.S. traders left these days, but I've given a fair amount of thought over the last five years and wanted to honor the idea behind Peaky Fifo and I've given a lot of thought to a new strategy that would pay homage to the basic ideas behind Peaky Fifo in giving U.S. traders a fighting chance.

The older I get, the longer the timeframes are that I've been looking at, which seemingly makes no sense. I've been studying 25 years of weekly charts on a number of pairs, and I've come up with a twenty year trading plan moving forward. I'm 62 now, so that means making it all the way to 82 to see the plan come to fruition. lol, we'll see how far I make it!

My new Peaky Fifo strategy trades on the weekly charts. Indicators are:

Sixths as Bands: 104 periods (2 years - just the outside and midlines are visible)
Baluda Superslope MA Periods = 21, ATR Period = 100
Heiken Ashi Candles

Trade setup, strategy and sample screens to follow in the next posts.

[cozybooks]

NEW Peaky Fifo:

Sell Trade Direction set up as follows:
1) Price breaks the upper sixths line
2) Superslope changes from blue to red

Open one sell trade immediately.
Open an additional sell trade every time the most recently closed Heiken Ashi candle has changed from buy to sell from the previous candle.
Additional Filters on additional Trades:
Entire previous candle must be ABOVE the Sixths Mid-Line.
Closing price on the previous candle must be at least X pips away from any other open trades - X being 1.0 * Daily ATR (365)

All sell trades opened will remain open until the opposite BUY trade signal is generated (Lower Sixths line broken, followed by Superslope changing from red to blue). At that point, all open sell trades are closed, and our first BUY trade is opened.

One additional condition: If our sell trades would not be closed at a net profit, we continue following the sell strategy until we get a BUY trade signal that would allow the sell trades to be closed at a profit.

[cozybooks]

Trading Example:

EURJPY Weekly Chart: Price broke the upper sixths line way back at the beginning of 2013, but it is after the April 20th, 2014 trading week that we finally have superslope change from Blue to Red.

We open our first sell trade at about 141.20

After the 6/8/14 candle closes, Heiken Ashi candle changed to red (sell), and price is more than the Daily ATR for the pair (probably roughly 150 pips), so we open a second sell trade at about 138.00

After the 8/24/14 candle closes, we open a third sell trade at about 136.50
After the 12/14/14 candle closes, we open a fourth sell trade at about 146.00

After this, additional H.A. sell candles are either too close in pips to existing trades or are not completely above the Sixths midline, so we get out a few dozen books to read while waiting for an opposite trade signal.

EURJPYWeekly 2012.jpg

[cozybooks]

This is a long, long waiting game, but after the 10/30/2-16 candle closes, we finally have a BUY Trade signal after the lower sixths line is broken and superslope changes from red to blue.

Our four sell trades are closed at approximately 114.70, giving us a profit of about 10,000 pips. We had to wait a long time, but we got a good payoff.

If these posts survive, I'll post information about margin, trade sizes and some additional trading examples in the next week or so.

Happy Trading!!!

EURJPYWeekly 2014.jpg