Slowkeys Syndicate or Four Hour and Daily Swing Trades

[Zypip]

Hi Slowkey,

I'm a long time lurker and your Daily Swing Trade strategy has moved me to post. I love the concept here and it coincides with my own thinking very well. These higher timeframe trades give a higher positive expectancy with less stress and with some stacking of multiple trades could earn just as much as multiple shorter trades.

I watch the crosses in particular EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD and I find their long term price action is smoother with less noise than the majors, as well as being often double the pip range.

I've attached a screenshot of my modified template looking at the D1 GBPNZD. According to my settings it looks like a long signal for this is still a few days away before I get a white bar above the midline.

Entry
1. NT TMA MTF D1 white bar crossing the midline (red lines)
2. SMI should be in same direction
3. Avoid going long at the top / short at the bottom of the deviation channel
Additional triggers or conservative filters
1. Wait for cross of support/resistance (blue lines)
2. Wait for NT TMA MTF W1 to cross the midline

Exit
1. NT TMA SlopeHisto MTF white bar crossing back across midline (yellow)
2. Alternatively use a trailing stop of 200 pips when white bar is getting close to midline

gbpnzd-D1.jpg

I look forward to learning from you and working together to ride these monster waves!

Cheers

Hi Soulfire,

If you don't mind me asking, what are your settings for the white bars of the TMA MTF histo? do you use Slowkey's 40/12? could you also confirm that the TMA is in true mode? and finally, what are those red histo bars on your chart? TMA weekly?

Sorry for firing all the questions at once but your chart was a good teaser

Zyp

@Slowkey: like what you are doing here, especially like your 40/12 numbers. Thanks.

[slowkey]

Hi Slowkey,

I'm a long time lurker and your Daily Swing Trade strategy has moved me to post. I love the concept here and it coincides with my own thinking very well. These higher timeframe trades give a higher positive expectancy with less stress and with some stacking of multiple trades could earn just as much as multiple shorter trades.

I watch the crosses in particular EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD and I find their long term price action is smoother with less noise than the majors, as well as being often double the pip range.

I've attached a screenshot of my modified template looking at the D1 GBPNZD. According to my settings it looks like a long signal for this is still a few days away before I get a white bar above the midline.

Entry
1. NT TMA MTF D1 white bar crossing the midline (red lines)
2. SMI should be in same direction
3. Avoid going long at the top / short at the bottom of the deviation channel
Additional triggers or conservative filters
1. Wait for cross of support/resistance (blue lines)
2. Wait for NT TMA MTF W1 to cross the midline

Exit
1. NT TMA SlopeHisto MTF white bar crossing back across midline (yellow)
2. Alternatively use a trailing stop of 200 pips when white bar is getting close to midline

gbpnzd-D1.jpg

I look forward to learning from you and working together to ride these monster waves!

Cheers

Hi Soulfire,

If you don't mind me asking, what are your settings for the white bars of the TMA MTF histo? do you use Slowkey's 40/12? could you also confirm that the TMA is in true mode? and finally, what are those red histo bars on your chart? TMA weekly?

Sorry for firing all the questions at once but your chart was a good teaser

Zyp

@Slowkey: like what you are doing here, especially like your 40/12 numbers. Thanks.

Thanks Zypip
Just a little background for everybody about why I am using the numbers I use since you mentioned them and I am glad you like them.

I am not using the 100 ATR and 20 period. In reality these are very huge numbers as indicator settings go. Those setting were developed for the 10.2 system and with an indicator that repainted. They work great for how Bob used them but I am using a shorter period because in True TMA mode the settings just fall apart and give me a poor signal for how I need to use the indicator. That is why I was so startled to realize that I had been looking at the indicator in a repainting mode in the first thread. The minute I put it in True TMA mode it appeared at first to be totally useless in my setup. So what is the signal I need. Well I need the signal to confirm the pullbacks to lower and higher outer deviation channels. The heart of the setup is the deviation channels. If I do not get timely signals the indicator might as well not be used. So if the indicator peaks when price reaches an outer deviation channel and that is confirmed by the SMI I have a good signal. The SMI long period by the way is 14. In True TMA mode the indicator has terrific divergence. You can see this by comparing it to the divergence observed in the SMI. Sometimes it is even earlier than the SMI. This is one of the first things I observed when I took the indicator out of the repainting mode and started to play with the settings. Divergence is a leading signal. So making use of this is part of the way I use the indicator. So the setting I use are also to enhance the observation of that divergence. By using a large ATR you are compressing the signal the indicator gives off and it is not as clear.

In the Histo divergence can be observed by the colors for each time period shrinking away leaving only the hourly to retreat last before price actually moves south for instance in a short. Positive and Negative divergence is a key to how I use the indicator. I do not want to overstate that because the indicator is just part of a confirming signal. However divergence can give you some idea about what is likely to happen next with price and give you some warning about when price is about to reverse for instance when you are looking for an exit. It may I say may help us stay in trades longer. I have to prove that by trading it. Nothing is in granite and if some one finds better settings or a better indicator for that matter that work in the setup I would likely adopt them. However I really like the histo and it seems epecially good in the MTF mode from the 15 minute period to the hour period. When any MTF indicator gets beyond a 3/1 - 5/1 relationship in time periods to each other than they start to break down. So the MTF mode seems to work best in the 15-60 minute time periods. I have found this true with every MTF indicator I have ever used that displayed 3 time period signals. When you try to go to the H1,H4, and D1 togeather the 4/1 vs the 6/1 of the hourly and the Daily is just to big of a range to be of much use as a signal. That is why MT5 would be a cooler platform time period wise for MTF because it offer better ratio's. If you look at my setup it is full of leading indicator theory. The SDC Fibonacci channels are all leading. The pivots are leading. The SMI has leading signals and so does the True TMA. The Fibs I draw are leading. This was by design. Having some knowledge of where bids, offers and stops are in the market is a leading idea in my intraday setup.

[Zypip]

[/quote]
In the Histo divergence can be observed by the colors for each time period shrinking away leaving only the hourly to retreat last before price actually moves south for instance in a short. Positive and Negative divergence is a key to how I use the indicator. I do not want to overstate that because the indicator is just part of a confirming signal. However divergence can give you some idea about what is likely to happen next with price and give you some warning about when price is about to reverse for instance when you are looking for an exit. It may I say may help us stay in trades longer. I have to prove that by trading it. Nothing is in granite and if some one finds better settings or a better indicator for that matter that work in the setup I would likely adopt them. However I really like the histo and it seems epecially good in the MTF mode from the 15 minute period to the hour period. When any MTF indicator gets beyond a 3/1 - 5/1 relationship in time periods to each other than they start to break down. So the MTF mode seems to work best in the 15-60 minute time periods. I have found this true with every MTF indicator I have ever used that displayed 3 time period signals. When you try to go to the H1,H4, and D1 togeather the 4/1 vs the 6/1 of the hourly and the Daily is just to big of a range to be of much use as a signal. That is why MT5 would be a cooler platform time period wise for MTF because it offer better ratio's. If you look at my setup it is full of leading indicator theory. The SDC Fibonacci channels are all leading. The pivots are leading. The SMI has leading signals and so does the True TMA. The Fibs I draw are leading. This was by design. Having some knowledge of where bids, offers and stops are in the market is a leading idea in my intraday setup.[/quote]

Thanks Slowkey for the explanations. On the last part, I liked the charts you showed lately with the MTF TMA and SMI combo and was wondering if you could explain a bit more how you use them to time/check for entries.

Sorry for asking as I understand it is only work in progress but just impatient I guess

Cheers,

Zyp

[slowkey]

Thanks Slowkey for the explanations. On the last part, I liked the charts you showed lately with the MTF TMA and SMI combo and was wondering if you could explain a bit more how you use them to time/check for entries.

Sorry for asking as I understand it is only work in progress but just impatient I guess

Cheers,

Not well I guess because I just realized I got stopped out of my GBPNZD position

Well I just started to use the new NT indicator and I think the MTF may give some good insight. The minute the violet color starts to show may be a good entry and in conjunction with the cross up or down of the SMI for intraday. Also comparing any divergence on the SMI to divergence on the NT indicator. I am not sure really that perfectly timed entries although we want the best we can get are as important in trading as is trade momentum which is really setup by the trading conditions. Are we risk on or off. What time of Day are we trading. Do we know what the strong currency is at the moment. Where do the big guns likely have there bids, offer and stops. Is the AUD going to go nuts on a jobs report like it did last evening. Ice the cake with this kind of knowledge and use the indicators to cut the cake you might say. Intraday in live trading the MTF indicator will be a treat. Step down through the time periods or set three charts side by side. However for the larger position trades I think we just want to limit price going against us to a great degree. Precise entry is not possible for after all we are entering a huge move. It could move against us for a few days. We want to get in for weeks if we can. We do want to get into a position where price is not likely to go against us to much but I guess I was wrong to some degree in thinking that I could use tighter stops. There will be no way around using larger stop sizes for these positions. They may take a week to get moving but than move for 7 or 8 weeks or longer. The confidence in the trades will not come from perfect entries as much as from knowledge of the SDC and channel location. However that is why I like Micro accounts because you can get perfect position sizing and just trade more pairs.

Using the hourly to fine tune entries and exits for the swing and position trades may be useful. But in reality making it all work will be understanding how best to use the 4 hour, Daily and Weekly SDC. How much does a strong down trend on the weekly for instance effect the slightly uptrend Daily SDC It is not as important intraday because comparing a weekly SDC to a Daily for instance is more just understanding where it fits. Is it in a retrace or in the main move. The hourly SDC is just fine trading in the direction of it own visual trend. Than by drawing where the fibs are on the dailly and visualizing them on the intraday you gain insight where the retrace for instance might start to reverse. Having the fibs, channels and pivots there gives you possible resistance and support levels.

But moving up to the daily and weekly is a massive change in perspective. If you go by the trend of the SDC on the Daily for instance and the Weekly is in a strong down trend does that matter. The Daily is 1/3 of the Weekly SDC. It is not so easy to see where it fits in the whole. How much the weekly down trend may effect the slight uptrend of the Daily. The Four hour Swing trades can be easily fine tuned from the intraday hourly. The swing trades just represent very large moves that can be seen over many days on the hourly. It is easy to see where they fit.

The position trades are what I am having trouble with understanding completely. Can we just use a Four Hour entry strategy which just builds on the intraday setup to get into trades. If that is all, than we just need the Weekly and the Daily for helping us to determine tops, bottoms and retraces. I guess what I am saying is that the SDC trend on the Daily and Weekly may not be important. Using the direction of the SDC trend on this high of a time period may be just muddying the picture. However deviation channels and any Fibs drawn from the Daily or the Weekly for that matter will have loads of importance. So I am beginning to think that the trend of the Daily or Weekly SDC is not really important. We are not trading within these trends. They are to large. The deviation channels defined by these trends may be really important. Because it is clear historically that we can trade within these channels. We can say by looking at the weekly that the Pair has pulled back to a specific channel or a down trend has ended at a specific channel.

[soulfire]

Slowkey - i love your focus on leading indicators - together they are sure to give us a better picture. I don't look at the weekly as it is just too big a timeframe to trade from. It tests the patience just sticking with a Daily strategy.

Fibs
I'd like to learn more about how you use the SDC and how it relates to fibs. I've never truly got my head about fib levels and have never used it in my trading. How do the fib levels on a diagonal SDC relate to standard horizontal fibs?

Entering position trades
I don't think it is possible to find the ultimate perfect entry but through defensive trading we can scale into a position over time. One way to do that is when you decide you have a good entry signal, place a 1st initial trade of maybe 10 or 20% of your total trade size. Then each day place an additional trade. This way you enter the trade over 5-10 days building up a position and average the entry across the multiple entries. This is more like a zone of possible entry rather than looking for the holy grail pinpointed spot. It allows you to withstand a worst case scenario of trade going against your initial entry of 400-500 pips a lot better as your trades will be progressively better entries.

One of two things will happen:
1. If price pulls back and goes against you over the following days, then you will end up with an overall better entry price when price eventually does go in your direction.
2. If price continues in the new trend then you scale in anyway but in a safer way than firing all your guns at once.

Zypip - my settings on the TMA MTF are Slowkeys - 12/40. It is the D1 and W1 on the D1 chart. I also use the TMA CSS again with 12/40. My settings on the SMI are 10,20,2,5 but I will test Slowkeys also.

Here are a few charts as I see them. I'm looking for confirmation of up to 4 entry conditions:
1. TMA MTF - cross of white bar / midline
2. TMA CSS - cross of white line / midline
3. SMI cross in harmony with TMA
4. break of support/resistance

GN-D1.jpg

GN - 2 conditions met - cross of S/R and SMI
Check out the candle pattern repeated of 4 out of 5 last candles up for the first time in two months.

GJ-D1.jpg

GJ - 4 conditions met - cross of MTF, CSS, SMI, S/R
have entered 1st trade

AU-D1.jpg

AU - 2 conditions met - cross of S/R and SMI
have entered 1st trade

NU-D1.jpg

NU - 3 conditions met - cross of MTF, CSS, SMI
have entered 1st trade

GA-D1.jpg

GA - no conditions met but looks promising

[Zypip]

Blimey ! this all look great...I will just need a bit of time to process it

Anyway thanks a lot guys for sharing your vision of the market, it is just inspiring.

Zyp

[slowkey]

eurnzd m.gif

eurnzd w.gif

It would seem that just the SMI and the SDC deviation channel on the weekly EURNZD would be enough to get a strong entry with the over all trend of the weekly for position trades. This is where a strong trend from the Monthly on down seems to give an edge to trading with the weekly SDC trend. Fine tuning the entry on the Daily and Hourly would probably be enough. You could probably get rather exact stops not necessarily tight but realistic by measuring the pip range to a deviation channel on the weekly or daily that has been safe in other pull backs. These are moves of 12 to 20 weeks.

[slowkey]

Really we do not have to reinvent the wheel with these position entries. Baluda has a host of new updates to his slope strength indicator that may give us some solid information regarding timing of our trades. On these large position entries we can borrow some from 10.2. The Four Hour swing trades could benefit from slope strength too.

[slowkey]

I got a little derailed by Slopey Beast this week end but will be looking to catch up here over the next few weeks and come up with a more complete look at a combined Four Hour and Daily strategy.

[slowkey]

Added the combined package to post one ...