The Beast stirs. He's got a slope.

[moed-fx-lhox]

Just want to know how good the Beast is

backtested the Slopie Beast with this params:

Symbol AUDJPY (Australian Dollar vs Japanise Yen)
Period 4 Hours (H4) 2012.01.02 00:00 - 2012.07.13 20:00 (2012.01.01 - 2012.07.15)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... ew&id=6687

[morgb]

Surprised to see that with default settings Max,"sixths,"are preferred to ChaserL,"sixths." Morgb, can you explain?

Yeah I think in the beginning with earlier versions of the beast, there was only the 1 way to select the sixths lines, then the chaserL option was added. I guess i just stuck with what worked for me early on.

No real reason per say, probably forgot to change the option

The beast is truly a marvel - I've never seen anything like it for puling in regular money, as long as your safe with the options and trust it.

Looking forward to testing the new version, if nothing comes of it cool.

but with the beast you never know!!!!

[Pippopotamus]

The Beast with Slope Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!

[Bunker]

(Sorry for the long post)

I personally had success with TB white box trades so adding the Slope will definitely be beneficial. The reason we know it is because we do have a definition on how to identify a trend (0.4) and a strong trend (0.8) using the Slope, but we never had to try to define a CT (or retracement) using the Slope.

Being able to use this extraordinary indi (Slope Display or SlopeValues) to identify trend AND CT would be ideal in order to adapt it to EAs such as TB (and many others). Slopey_Beast is the very first opportunity to come up with such a definition.

So here is a first attempt:
I have been trading using Jem’s Uber Basket Trading Manual strategy. What a concept!! Perfect for trend trading, but retracement can be a long wait and I often regret not having the guts to CT trade during these periods. I am absolutely scared to CT when I see a D1 indicating a value > 0.8 (or < -0.8).
However, I realized that during retracement period, although D1 could be pretty scary, H1 gives a good indication of the short term situation (retracement or still trending).

So here it is:
- Retracement during a Bullish trend: D1 >= 0.8 AND H1 < 0.4
- Retracement during a Bearish trend: D1<= - 0.8 AND H1 > - 0.4

Here are a few examples:

(pic 1) CAD/CHF: D1 shows a strong Bullish trend while H1 is below 0.4. This is a retracement.
(Pic 2) EUR/CAD: D1 shows a strong Bearish trend while H1 is above- 0.4. This is a retracement.
(pic 3) EU: D1 shows a Bearish trend while H1 shows a value > -0.4. This is a retracement. In this case, the H1 value is so much higher than -0.4 that I wonder if this is not the beginning of a trend reversal…
(Pic 4): U/CH: D1 shows a strong Bullish trend while H1 is greater than 0.4. This is NOT a retracement.
(pic 5): E/A: D1 is showing a strong Bearish trend while H1 is lower than -0.4. This is not a retracement.

If this definition could be coded in the bot, that could be a good start.

I am not saying that this is the solution, but I hope this post will trigger some brilliant ideas (this Forum is just FULL OF THEM !!!) from you guys, the people I learn so much from!.

Cheers!

Bunker

[garyfritz]

Just want to know how good the Beast is
backtested the Slopie Beast with this params:

10 trades (short only) in 6+ months quadrupled the account!? That's 15% gain per trade. IF the backtest is accurate, I'd have to suspect there's waaaaaayyy too much leverage on it. The Beast is known for going into recovery and sometimes blowing up with a large loss. If your gains are 15%, how big would the occasional blowup trade be?

[moed-fx-lhox]

Just want to know how good the Beast is
backtested the Slopie Beast with this params:

10 trades (short only) in 6+ months quadrupled the account!? That's 15% gain per trade. IF the backtest is accurate, I'd have to suspect there's waaaaaayyy too much leverage on it. The Beast is known for going into recovery and sometimes blowing up with a large loss. If your gains are 15%, how big would the occasional blowup trade be?

This is quite difficult question for a nubie like me
yeah, maybe i don't really know how to do a good backtest other than using that Empty4 strategy tester, hit the button and watch the graph..

[mobthehop]

Steve,

looks like you did not remove the previous version from Page 1 / post 1 - thanks for update v1a though

Cheers

[garyfritz]

yeah, maybe i don't really know how to do a good backtest other than using that Empty4 strategy tester, hit the button and watch the graph..

The Empty4 backtester is known to be marginal. Many people don't trust it. Be very careful of hitting buttons you don't understand and trusting the results.

But you also need to understand the behavior of the system you're backtesting. If the backtest IS accurate, that indicates way more risk than is safe for this EA.

I don't see any "risk %" inputs in the Slopey Beast. What lot size did you use? You didn't list your trades but I'm guessing you specified a large lotsize, which produced the large wins. And would produce even larger losses if the Beast ran off the rails, which it does on occasion.

[Jemook]

So here is a first attempt:
I have been trading using Jem’s Uber Basket Trading Manual strategy. What a concept!! Perfect for trend trading, but retracement can be a long wait and I often regret not having the guts to CT trade during these periods. I am absolutely scared to CT when I see a D1 indicating a value > 0.8 (or < -0.8).
However, I realized that during retracement period, although D1 could be pretty scary, H1 gives a good indication of the short term situation (retracement or still trending).

So here it is:
- Retracement during a Bullish trend: D1 >= 0.8 AND H1 < 0.4
- Retracement during a Bearish trend: D1<= - 0.8 AND H1 > - 0.4

First of all thanks Bunker, I'm glad you are having fun! Some brilliant minds on this forum always giving us all new things to think about. I've actually been looking at this as well for counter-trend trading and I'm finding some interesting stuff too.

This is how we currently check for a change of trend:
1. Say the AUDUSD has been in a bullish trend and D1 is above .8 we wait until it goes below -.4 to confirm a change of trend.
2. We can also use the pivots switching orders ala 10.2a to confirm a change of trend.

I believe that both 1 & 2 happen around the same time. I also think (as you do) that we can try and pre-empt a trend change OR simply counter trend by drilling down to the H1 and doing exactly what you specified. If H1 goes < -.4 then you can pop a counter-trend on. If you then see the H4 also go < -.4 then hang on to it because next the D1 will go < -.4 and you will have a confirmed trend change to bearish.

It's up to you to try and get a quick counter trend scalp in OR hold for a longer term trend change. You need to read the pivot orders and (H1,H4,D1) TMA SLOPE. Once you get it, it's so simple and the more time we spend with these TMA Slopes the more concrete our findings will become.

It's 4:00am on a Sunday and I need to go to sleep. But good on you for bringing this up, nicely spotted mate! If I confirm anything I will let the troops know!

[SteveHopwood]

So here it is:
- Retracement during a Bullish trend: D1 >= 0.8 AND H1 < 0.4
- Retracement during a Bearish trend: D1<= - 0.8 AND H1 > - 0.4

Nice post Bunker. Thanks.

At some stage over the next few days a new form of CT trading will appear - TradeBunker, fully configurable so we can play with it.