Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA

[wolfeman]

jth, that a great idea mate- I like it!

My current obsession with this EA is getting the entries and SL's right. Despite Steves's recent addition of the 5 second sleep fuction, something is still amiss.

With the line enabled, it reads the current fractal correctly only on long trades. edit: (scratch that, see my next post)On shorts, it's all messed up (see fractalmiss4-attached) I have seen this numerous times. For this pic I had saved the set, removed the Ea, restarted the plat and replaced the EA just to make sure, waited for the EA to come up and then snapped the pic.

With the line disabled, it does not show a fractal reading at all in the comments, which probably explains my instant close of a trade this morning.

OK, as I was typing this, (I have this set to take shorts, with the line) the fracal reading in the user comments changed twice and neither was the correct one. Help!, Steve?

Right now I will set it up fresh to take longs and watch the readings while I have breakfast.

[wolfeman]

Ok, I will try to explain what I'm seeing. Restart plat, install EA to trade long, with the line below. Attached are pics fractalmiss 5,6 and 7.

In pic5, you can see the EA fetching a fractal 1.28866 from 25 min. prior...easy to see why. The price had fallen below the MOST RECENT fractal at 1.28954.

In pic6 a new fractal had formed at 1.28931 but the EA was still fetching the same 1.28866

In pic7 the EA now recognizes the current fractal at 1.28931--Why? The price is now ABOVE the last fractal which was 1.28954

For this EA to trade the paulus method correctly, we need not trade the fractal in the "traditional" sense (i.e. the current highest or lowest relative to price) but, rather we need the most RECENT fractal.

Steve, is it possible to "purge" the EA's memory of the high/low fractal and only use the most recent? I think that would set everything straight.

[jth]

Hi, what is your setting for the EA?

Can you share your .set file

The setup is OOTB, the only change is the brokers time in this case its +2. Instead of 8 mine is 10 london open
Thats all
JTH

[MiTija]

My actual sequence results of the 25 days is as follows
WWWWWLLLWLLWWWLWWLWLWWWLL

Wow. 25 trades, 15 wins, that's 60% wins.

1.15^15 * 0.95^10 = 4.87 -- which matches his £2000-to-£9773 result.

Assuming it maintains that 60% win rate, the average win is 15% and the average trade is (15 * 15% - 10 * 5%) / 25 = 7%. So the Kelly value is 7% / 15% = 47%. So risking 5% means you're risking just over 10% of the Kelly value (10% * 47% = 4.7%). That's a little aggressive but it's reasonable.

If you don't like the 5% risk, you could drop it to 2.5%. With 60% wins you'd still make about 130% after 25 trades. At that risk level there's only about a 13% chance of a 20% drawdown.

I need to look at this! Why do these things always run at London open, which is 1am for me!? But Paulus says it can work "any time of day," so I'll have to test that...

You got to the math before I did. (Passes GaryFritz a VB)

Cheers!

[mobthehop]

Not sure how relevant this article is to this EA but just came across this (recent) if lengthy article on coding a system based on fractals and trendlines.... http://articles.mql4.com/1032

[dsugums]

Any idea why my sl and tp always multiplied by 10? I am using Bully Pepperstone which is an ecn. And the lot size is reduced to 1/10 as well!

I get lot size as 0.03 (suppose to be 0.3) and sl at 21.2 pips and tp 66.30!

[jth]

Hi,
Today 4 trades opened and there was 1 trade open from yesterday. The trade from yesterday hit its sl for $-619.22 and the 4 from today hit their tp of 8% basket setting for a total of $1026.70. still a profit of $407.48.
By the way i use the MPTM (Multi-purpose trade management EA ) and that is working really great.
See what tomorrow brings
JTH

[Vokin]

I mean its very good trading tip from author. For this style trading is EA very good option. I have three question:
- calculate EA with spread in SL, TP?
- today EA opened trade after Europe open (see pict).
- after end hour is EA still in the same condition (i dont see "outside trading hours").

Sorry for my english - and Thank you for your work Mr. Steve.

[jth]

Boom Yeah basket tp hit.
6 trades opened
8% basket tp
total $1073.07

I am going to try it with the NY open and see what happens let you guys know if it does or not.
JTH

P.S.
Will post the detail report later today or tomorrow.

[patman]

Hi jth,

I like your idea, so I set up for this morning on Ava Demo.

OOTB except risk is 2

All were "doing bugger all" till 8
Then bias showed up
NZDUSD opened a trade so now it's "doing bugger all" (till monday morning I think)

What criminal are you on?

I use MPTM too to manage the basket - thanks Steve

Pat