I assume you used the Empty4 tester or a similar program. The problem with test programs is they dont convey the individual decision of each trade, they try to feed a certain if a then b then c etc which in a dynamic Forex world doesnt work. For example I know that the AUD lowered their interest rate yesterday and that will bring down the AUD over time. Because the NZD is tied to the Australian economy it will eventually come down also. That is something that cannot be tested in a tester but you will not find me buying either one right now. The exception being which I learned this summer is the CHF doesnt want to be a safe haven currency, the USD, JPY, GBP are not attractive safe haven currencies right now so up went the AUD and NZD. They are simply too small of currencies to be safe havens for a long period of time so when that is done they should make a nice drop in the near future. However, if some country in Europe hits the news again I wouldnt be surprised if they once again make a short term safe haven to store money for a while.garyfritz wrote:Lucky man. Wish it had worked out that way for me.nanningbob wrote:We have been married 37 years and still kiss each other once in a while. My wife graduated from Poudre High School Class of 73.
Your wife graduated one year ahead of me, but I was in Iowa at the time. My sons are at Poudre now. You'll have to tell her Fort Collins has changed just a teensy bit since her high school days.
FWIW: I've been doing a bit of study to understand the 10.2a behavior a bit better. I wondered if the DP>WP>MP or DP<WP<MP condition was a strong enough signal by itself. I wrote up a small test system to go long or short when the pivots lined up, and go flat when they weren't. It's pretty close to a breakeven, meaning "pivots lined up" is not a great indicator of "good trend to jump on." There are just too many cases where the pivots line up just as the market reverses.
I tried combining it with slope in a simple-minded way and that didn't work either.
I also tried adding simple volatility-based TP and SL, and those helped slightly.
So: since people do seem to be making money with this beastie, that says to me the pivots aren't the magic. It's how you manage the trade once you're in it.
These individual decisions are not reflected in a test program.
Point 2, at some point you have to close a trade in a tester by some criteria. I have found by studying each individual trade that many trades it counts as a loss were once a profitable trade and you can change the entire results of a test by taking profits on trades the tester counted as a loss.
Point 3 if you trade like I do and multi level trade then some trades that count as losers are really break evens in the real world. So I do not find tester programs really show what will happen in the real world. The value of testers is to see if an EA works properly and if you look at each individual trade and not the test results page, you can get an idea of the strategy. I guess I should start a thread and talk about this subject.
I could give some more points but I think you get the picture. I have never found a tester program that really accurately gives results that would exist in real time. Just too many variables that it cant test.
